Republic of Turkey Including Azerbaijan?

World War One resulted in the dissolution of the Ottoman and Russian Empires and birth of many new states.

The democratic republic of Azerbaijan was proclaimed 28 May 1918. It was progressive, secular, and nationalist. It fought briefly with Armenia, the Bolsheviks, and the British, and in Spring 1920 was invaded by Soviet Russia and made into a constituent part of the USSR. Later in 1920 Russian and Turkish forces divided Armenia between themselves. Over the next few years Mustafa Kemal Ataturk* The democratic republic of Turkey was proclaimed October 29, 1923. It was progressive, secular, and nationalist. It immediately established itself as a western looking nation and a barrier to the USSR.

If the Russians had taken longer to pull themselves together, or for some other reason were delayed in invading the south Caucasus, and perhaps the republic of Turkey was established slightly earlier, might we see a Azerbaijan as an integral part? Their languages and cultures were very similar, and they had common enemies in the Russians and the Armenians. Being part of Turkey would be beneficial to Azerbaijanis who would enjoy the protection market of the USA. Azerbaijan would be a valuable part of Turkey for its mineral wealth, and to increase her legitimacy as the nation state of Turks.

A union of today's Turkey and Azerbaijan would have a population of 90 millions, a land mass of 870 000 square kms, and a gdp over 1.8 Trillion USD. If this Turkey also annexed Armenia, and Azerbaijan's access to the first world market resulted in development and GDP closer to western Europe; we would have a contiguous nation from the Balkans to the Caspian, with population exceeding 100 million, and GDP of 2 - 4 Trillion USD. This Turkey would be around the fifth greatest power on the planet.

The main obstacles I see are:
  • Azerbaijanis possibly preferring a federation to preserve some of their newfound freedoms, while Ataturk would much prefer a unitary state.
  • Other powers preferring the union doesn't happen. Iran has historical claim to Azerbaijan, many powers did not want a stronger Turkey, and even the British and USA might get involved due to the oil.
  • The Armenians and other minorities in the way. Unfortunately they haven't stopped Turks before.
Thoughts? Can anyone suggest a better POD than Stalin ordering his armies to crawl everywhere?


*Among the most interesting historical figures in my opinion. His names; granted throughout his life, translate roughly to: The Chosen One, Perfection, Father of Turks.
 
Bump, and also pointing out that many millions of Azeris live in north west Iran. During one of Iran's many periods of political instability all or part of this region could be annexed to Turkey without, I think, much negative reaction from the rest of the world.
 
Soviet Russia (meaning prior to USSR) had deemed oil region essential to survival? do not believe Turkey AND Iran could hold Azerbaijan against them.
 
Besides Turkey not being nearly as easy to invade as azerbaijan or armenia, the Turks very quickly established themselves as friends of the west, and after ww2 had a legal alliance with the US. Besides, pretty much every nation on the planet other than the USSR wanted to keep the Moscow far from Istanbul and the Mediterranean. The Soviet Union would certainly want to invade this greater Turkey, but they might not find a chance.
 
If Azerbaijan becomes a territory of the Republic of Turkey, almost certainly there will not be anything like Armenia. As others have pointed out, the Armenians will literally be in the way of any Turkish state that extends to the Caspian. Erivan will be just a provincial city of Turkey, and the Armenians will be a nation almost wholly displaced from their homeland and living in a diaspora. France, Syria, the United States, Argentina, Georgia and/or the Soviet Union--the lucky ones will have escaped.

Even though Turks and Azeris are apparently culturally similar to the point of their languages' mutual intelligibility, and the two nations are quite friendly today, I can't help but think that an Azerbaijan added to the Turkish Republic could be a destabilizing factor. Oil aside, Azerbaijan has had a very different historical experience from the rest of Turkey, while even under the secularist regime of Ataturk the local predominance of Shi'ite Islam could also be a factor in distinguishing Azeris from other Turks. Certainly the Soviet Union will want to regain Azerbaijan, given how Baku was the Russian Empire's chief source of oil until a relatively late date.
 
Besides Turkey not being nearly as easy to invade as azerbaijan or armenia, the Turks very quickly established themselves as friends of the west, and after ww2 had a legal alliance with the US. Besides, pretty much every nation on the planet other than the USSR wanted to keep the Moscow far from Istanbul and the Mediterranean. The Soviet Union would certainly want to invade this greater Turkey, but they might not find a chance.

The interwar time. Turkey has no friends, is surrounded by enemies, it's poor, it has a very low population (13 million makes it a minor power - smaller than Czechoslovakia), it has no industry and Russia has traditionally no trouble invading it.

If there's no peace agreement with the Soviets there's going to be a "turkey shoot" in the 20s and they're not going to give up what the tsar held before the war without a fight - see the Baltics, Finland, Polan, Ukraine etc.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Claiming Azerbaijan would probably lead to a war between the USSR and Turkey.

OTL the USSR and Turkey has a understanding during the Inter-War years, that allowed Turkey to reclaim land the Ottomans lost in the Russo-Turkish war. Meanwhile the USSR got the rest of the Caucasus. This agreement would be never be if Turkey claimed Azarbaijan, on the contrary the USSR would probably proclaim themselves Protectors of the Armenians in that case. War in the early 20s or perhaps already 1918-19 when Soviet and Turkish interests in the Caucasus clash.
 
always thought the Berlin to Baku railroad would have appealed to Germany after WWI instead of continuing with Berlin to Baghdad route or Berlin to Tehran, easily connected to Baku later.
 
Russia/USSR taking much longer to finish and recover from the October revolution was the POD I was thinking of, without figuring out any of the details.

Anotherlurker and Yourworstnightmare have made some points that suggest maybe a longer revolution won't be enough. Every neighbour of Turkey, with the possible exception of Georgia, is unfriendly or hostile. While Turkey was trying to align itself with the west the western great powers didn't reciprocate until WW2. Even if Russia is in dissaray until 1930 they have nearly a day decade until they need to about the Germans if events unfold as OTL. If Russia thinks they'll soon fight another great war they have all the more reason to seize Baku.
 
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