Republic of China along the Hongshui?

I was looking at my globe and I began to think...What If the ROC had been able to somehow fortify a section of the Hongshui river between Hong Kong and the northern border of Vietnam? With sufficient western aid, could they possibly hold this area? What would be the effects of this on mainland China and the world in general?

Would the ROC still have their capital in Taipei? Or would it be somewhere on the mainland, or possibly Hainan? What effects would this have on Vietnam? And how would this effect the development of both China's?

ROCmainland.png

This is what I was thinking...
 
I don't think so. The PROC has too much of a manpower advantage that they would simply swamp the ROC. If the Americans got swamped in the Korean war by the Commie Chinese, no matter how much aid is given the ROC, it doesn't have a chance. During this stage of the Civil War the ROC was on its last legs, and only the intervention of the US 7th Fleet managed to avoid the total collapse of the nationalistic government.
 
I don't think so. The PROC has too much of a manpower advantage that they would simply swamp the ROC. If the Americans got swamped in the Korean war by the Commie Chinese, no matter how much aid is given the ROC, it doesn't have a chance. During this stage of the Civil War the ROC was on its last legs, and only the intervention of the US 7th Fleet managed to avoid the total collapse of the nationalistic government.


If threatens to nuke the commies if they don't stop at a certain point its possible.
 
Yes, I suppose the threat of nuclear retaliation would be a good motivator to make peace with KMT. The Soviets either wouldn't have nukes yet, or would have JUST developed them (and wouldn't really have many), so they couldn't really do anything to protect the PRC in this regard.

However, maybe my original idea was a bit silly. After sleeping it over, I think the map below is a better concept overall. This is KMT along the Yangtze River.

ROCmainland2.png


Do you think a China divided in this way could feasibly last till the end of the Cold War, or perhaps even the present? And again, what are the effects of this upon China and the world at large?

My idea for how this came to be: Instead of stopping in 1946, thus giving the Communists time to regroup, the US encourages Chiang to finish them off if he can. He attacks, at first pushing deep into Manchuria, but with a fair bit of Soviet aid, the Communists manage to repel his attack with heavy losses to both sides. The Communists eventually launch their own offensive, driving KMT out of northern China, but are too exhausted in the end to drive them out of the South, especially with the USA threatening retaliation should they attempt to do so. The borders settle and an uneasy truce is signed by both sides.

Feel free to improve or alter this suggested scenario as you see fit.
 
And why not?

To what end? It'd freak out the Nationalists and has no major strategic value.


I think it could hold, depending on who's in charge of the PRC. Mao wouldn't go for it, but somebody else might. Hmm.
 
Hrm, how about a divided Tibet?

I could see this happening if the PRC attempts to invade Tibet as a way of bypassing KMT's river defenses, which causes the Nationalists to freak out and invade in order to prevent them from going around their fortifications.

Do you think this map could plausibly happen?


ROCmainland3.png
 
would the PRC become more dependant on the soviets? if the western powers are supplying the ROC (in whatever capacity) then the soviets would want to supply the PRC, right?
 
would the PRC become more dependant on the soviets? if the western powers are supplying the ROC (in whatever capacity) then the soviets would want to supply the PRC, right?

Definitely. Mao and his successor wouldn't throw the Soviet support through the window if there was this peril so close to them. I think there would be a pair of "Chinese Wars" in the mode of the Korean War, but bigger. On the other hand, North Vietnam would be in a more difficult position so communism could be eradicated from Indochina before it takes as much land as in OTL.

North China might become a captive market of the URSS and a member of the Warsaw Pact. Without Nixon to open it to western markets it would remain poorer and likely fall or suffer major disturbances when the URSS falls in the late '80s.

Tibet might or might not be annexed, but I'm tempted to think that there would be a communist coup overthrowing the lamas at some point. Tibet intervention war in the 70s?
 
Definitely. Mao and his successor wouldn't throw the Soviet support through the window if there was this peril so close to them. I think there would be a pair of "Chinese Wars" in the mode of the Korean War, but bigger. On the other hand, North Vietnam would be in a more difficult position so communism could be eradicated from Indochina before it takes as much land as in OTL.

North China might become a captive market of the URSS and a member of the Warsaw Pact. Without Nixon to open it to western markets it would remain poorer and likely fall or suffer major disturbances when the URSS falls in the late '80s.

Tibet might or might not be annexed, but I'm tempted to think that there would be a communist coup overthrowing the lamas at some point. Tibet intervention war in the 70s?

How do you believe the Nationalists would develop? Would there still be enough pressure on them to make the much needed reforms to their system in order to reduce corruption?
 
If threatens to nuke the commies if they don't stop at a certain point its possible.

mao never really bought into mad or related concepts. he believed that the chinese numerical superiority would enable them to survive and win a nuclear war. so the threat of nukes will probably not stop him from invading a roc that is still on the mainland.
 

NomadicSky

Banned
I really like the idea of the second map even with a PRC taking Tibet.

It just looks really good on a map that way.
 
mao never really bought into mad or related concepts. he believed that the chinese numerical superiority would enable them to survive and win a nuclear war. so the threat of nukes will probably not stop him from invading a roc that is still on the mainland.

He or the man that replaces him might change there mind when a major commie china city explodes.
 
He or the man that replaces him might change there mind when a major commie china city explodes.

Maybe, if not for the fact that China at that time was mainly a rural country with barely any industrialization and had little importance in cities. The U.S simply don't have enough nukes to wipe out China for quite a while if they have to focus on the ridiculously vast countrysides which is exactly where the Communist power base is.
 
This is actually a interesting idea, I've occasionally wondered what life would be like for me if I grew up in ROC Hainan rather than PRC Hainan.

Unfortunately the thing seems a bit too unlikely. Let's not forget that the communists are also guerillas and not just conventional armies, communist guerillas is something Hainan had and a big difference between Hainan and Taiwan. I can't see how they can hold out without a strait to block the Communist advance.
 
What would it be like for the ROC to hold on to Hainan. Lets assume the UN sends a peace keeping force to make sure the war doesn't escalate to taiwan or hainan.
 
Top