Deleted member 94680
I think that by 1916 a Poland that is at least autonomous is pretty well inevitable, OTL by 1923 even Stalin felt Poland couldn't be subsumed into the USSR if they had won the war with Poland. The Tsarist Russia or Russian Republic that staggered out of the end of WWI wouldn't be in as much of a mess as in OTL but I doubt if they would be in a fit state to hold down a Poland that got quite feisty OTL. And the Polish nationalist leaders hadn't signed up to the Central Powers proposed Kingdom of Poland. If post-war, the Poles are sitting thinking "We could have got a better deal from the Germans" it wouldn't bode well for future Russian military security. The Germans attack from the front, meanwhile the Poles rise up and attack from the rear...." And Russia would need British, French and American loans. Significant Polish vote in America and lots of French and British liberals who wouldn't be very keen on Russian repression. And Czechs and Slovaks and Galician Poles would need states of their own post Austrian collapse which would be a constant inspiration to Congress Poland to demand the same.
I see what you're saying and it's hard to disagree. With Piłsudski and his legion running around and maybe even other volunteer organisations in being, there's a pretty good case the WAllies would push the Russians to cede Polish independence. The Russians will need heavy investment to rebuild after all.
I see Churchill's career going pretty much as you describe myself only not quite as happy due to his opposition to decolonialisation.
Oh, I only mean happy as in no disasters or scandals. The pace of decolonisation would give him plenty to argue against and Winston loved an argument. Being the 'face' of an anti-decolonisation movement (increasingly against the tide of reality and financial sense) would probably preclude his involvement in front bench politics after the mid forties anyway.