Reporting for Duty: The Presidency of John Kerry and Beyond

Weird...I'd expect Bush to be winning the Western states more so than the Midwestern/rustbelt states...
I reasoned that Kerry's numbers holding among Latino voters in the west (particularly in AZ, NM, NV) due to his successful implementation of immigration reform and other popular policies.
 

JLan1485

Banned
I reasoned that Kerry's numbers holding among Latino voters in the west (particularly in AZ, NM, NV) due to his successful implementation of immigration reform and other popular policies.
You know what fair point, plus passing this cheap labor bill would hurt him in the midwest so this makes more sense
 
That’s an interesting possibility that I didn’t take into account, she actually seems like a much stronger woman candidate for the position than Hillary.
That’s true, and I feel that choosing Sebelius is a perfect way to counteract the damage done by Edward’s philandering. Plus she won Kansas during an otherwise bleak mid-terms ITTL, so it’s not as if she’ll only appeal to dedicated liberals.

Selecting a woman running mate may also inspire Bush to choose Palin which would only help the Dems too.
 
Sorry for the delay in updating this. I'll get something up this week, I'm just a little preoccupied with another project. I need to redo some wikiboxes surrounding the Republican Convention, because I'm flirting with changing Jeb's running mate.
 
Chapter XXXXVI: August 2008.
Chapter Forty Six:
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Governor Tim Pawlenty - the GOP Vice Presidential nominee.
Within days of the Republican Convention’s opening, former Governor Jeb Bush announced the selection of Governor Tim Pawlenty as his running mate. It was the hope of the presumptive Republican nominee that the Governor will be able to keep the midwest, particularly Minnesota, in play. Pawlenty was considered the safe option by the Bush campaign, who praised the Governor as a likeminded pragmatic problem solver. He was also, like Governor Bush, sufficiently conservative enough on most issues in the eyes of the Tea Party wing of the Republican Party, though there was none the less still a considerable grumbling from the right. The selection of Pawlenty was made public a full three weeks before the GOP convention in Pawlenty's backyard of Saint Paul, primarily due to the Olympic festivities and games in Beijing absorbing the attention of the world. The Pawlenty rollout was generally well received by the press, though some liberal commentators like Keith Ulberman and Rachel Maddow (the newest addition to the MSNBC lineup) argued that the Bush/Pawlenty ticket was a symbol of an increasingly aging white voter base. Pawlenty's rollout as the Vice Presidential nominee was followed by a media blitz which earned him further praise, introducing the largely unknown Minnesota Governor to the nation. While many had been familiar with him due to his national prominence in the wake of the Minneapolis bridge collapse, to most Americans, Pawlenty was an obscure figure, and voters tuned in by the millions for interviews on such programs such as 60 Minutes.

While the world watched the Olympics in Beijing, a serious crisis was brewing in the former Soviet Union. After ethnic Russian separatists in Abkhazia and South Ossetia declared their independence from Georgia, President Saakashvili ordered a large military operation to bring the breakaway provinces back under the rule of the government in Tbilisi. In response, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin ordered a full scale invasion. The Russian army stormed over the border into South Ossetia, driving Georgian forces back with ease within hours of launching the initial assault. Georgian forces along the country’s entire border with Russia also soon fell under aerial and artillery bombardment, while Russian troops quickly linked up with separatist rebels in the two breakaway provinces. President Kerry convened a meeting of his National Security Council to discuss and coordinate NATO's message and response to the Russian invasion of Georgia, but the surprise Russian attack was far too quick for Washington to keep up. By the time the President's first statement had reached the airwaves of the cable news channels, the Russian army had already penetrated deep into Georgian territory. Lashing out at the President on the campaign trail, Governor Bush called for a stronger response to the Russian Federation's aggression, proclaiming "today, we are all Georgian" at a campaign rally in Pittsburgh."


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The war between Georgia and Russia brought foreign policy issues into the spotlight.
But it was the price of gas and the slowing markets that seemed to monopolize the concerns of Americans, many of whom were disinterested in the conflict over the two small Georgian provinces that had seceded. When the international games in Beijing ended, focus turned to immediately to Saint Paul, Minnesota where the 2008 Republican National Convention opened. A number of speakers, including former President George W. Bush, former Secretary of State Colin Powell, Senator John McCain, and former Mayor Rudy Giuliani hailed Governor Bush as being “ready to lead on day one,” which became something of a slogan for the Bush campaign as the election wore on. The night ended with an electrifying speech from Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, who delighted the Tea Party wing with her folksy style of oratory and passionately populist rhetoric. The following day, the platform was passed by delegates ahead of the nomination vote, with the Republican Party slightly watering down planks related to immigration reform in accordance with the wishes of the presumptive nominee. In the roll call vote that followed, Bush was coronated the Republican presidential nominee with 99% of the vote, followed by an acclamation vote in favor of Tim Pawlenty’s nomination. In his speech to the convention, Bush calls for “an American renaissance” and lays out his agenda for reforming the government and jump starting a fading economic boom. Though the speech is largely well received by Republicans and the press, many pundits feel the GOP ticket simply isn’t charismatic or compelling enough to compete with the President, in spite of the Edwards scandal and the slowing economy.

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As the Republican convention closed, the polls showed the Republican ticket widening their lead over the President, who had yet to name a running mate. The rumored shortlist according to sources in the White House included Senators Evan Bayh (D-IN), Joe Biden (D-DE), Hillary Clinton (D-NY), Barack Obama (D-IL), and Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico. Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI), an outspoken progressive and occasional critic of the President, was also reported to be in the mix as a wildcard candidate. A more pro-Kerry voice, but equally unexpected, was that of Kathleen Sebelius, the Democratic Governor of Kansas who won a miracle reelection victory in 2006 in a traditional Republican stronghold. While a seasoned liberal woman was viewed as an antidote to the disgraced philandering Vice President, Sebelius was, like Pawlenty, a nationally untested figure, which made a cautious and calculated Washington insider like President Kerry skeptical.


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2008 Presidential Election
(REP) Jeb Bush: 50%
(DEM) John Kerry: 43%
Undecided: 5%
Weld: 1%
Ventura: 1%

Presidential Approval Rating
Disapprove: 56%
Approve: 41%
Undecided: 3%
 
Huh. Interesting pick by Bush here. My personal pick would be for Feingold but Sebelius would be a good one though one that I am not sure would win over certain areas of the country as well as could expected.
 
Finally caught up. Excellent stuff! Never read a Kerry TL before so this is quite interesting to me.
Thanks for all the likes, I'm glad you're enjoying this. I'll try and get something new up tonight. At some point, I need to re-write election night 2012, but otherwise I'm up through May 2013 right now. That will all take place in Part II of course on the Chat board.
 
Chapter XXXXVII: September 2008.
Chapter Forty Seven:
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Jeb and Columba Bush.
Behind the White House walls, the Kerry administration's upper-echelons were despondent. So dire was the situation that White House Chief of Staff Alexis Herman was reported to have referred to the month as "Black September." Facing the Edwards scandal, a lack of progress in Iraq, a slowing economy, and an obstructionist opposition that had control of Congress, the President emerged weathered as his term neared it's end. These events had corroded the president’s approval ratings to the point that some of his most loyal allies in the White House, including Chief Strategist Bob Shrum, were eying their future employment prospects in a post-Kerry Washington which would be under the thumb of a Republican trifecta. The post convention bump propelled the GOP ticket of Bush/Pawlenty to an eight point lead in the polls over the President by the end of the first week of September, and Governor Bush's mother, former First Lady Barbara Bush, even joked at a rally that she was "measuring the drapes" in Oval Office for him. During this time, Bush's wife Columba, who had largely stayed in the shadows during the campaign, emerged on the campaign trail as a powerful surrogate for the GOP ticket among Hispanic voters. Though deeply introverted and reserved personally, Columba's presence on the campaign trail contrasted with First Lady Theresa Heinz Kerry, who was often caricatured as an out of touch elitist, and somewhat overshadowed by the outspoken and cancer stricken Second Lady Elizabeth Edwards.

Kerry sought to rectify the situation by stalling Bush’s momentum. The first and most obvious step in doing this was replacing Vice President Edwards with a new candidate, a fresh face who could dispel the narrative about the Democratic Party being pushed by the Bush campaign. A string of potential contenders for the Vice Presidency were brought, one by one, to meet with the President in the Oval Office to discuss the job. First, Senator Barack Obama of Illinois was invited to sit down with the President, though the junior Senator from Illinois was somewhat reluctant to join the ticket on such short notice. President Kerry was particularly bullish about Obama, whom he believed to be an inspiring orator who could drive up turnout among African-American voters to offset the Republican gains in the western states. Obama asked for a week's time to consider the offer, and in the meantime encouraged the President to interview other potential contenders. Next was Governor Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas, who was widely viewed as the "wildcard" candidate for the position. Sebelius had survived, rather handily, the 2006 Republican tsunami that had drowned nearly every other Democratic Governor up for reelection that year. She was a moderate, perhaps a tick more to the center than the President himself, who did not offer any particular ideological diversity to the ticket, but she did make a good foil to the disgraced outgoing incumbent Vice President. The Sebelius interview was successful enough, and was followed by one with Senator Hillary Clinton.

Senator Clinton arrived with her husband, which was unexpected. While President Kerry and his predecessor generally got along, the former President had a tendency to meddle, lobby, and opine on affairs that the President found grating. But the President understood that the Clintons were the most iconic power-couple in American history, and that any administration role for Hillary would be sure to involve Bill. That alone led Kerry, just five minutes into the interview, to decide firmly on nominating Senator Obama to the Democratic ticket. After the Clinton's departed, two other scheduled interviews were immediately canceled; Senator Biden was written off by Kerry as too bland, too boring, and too old. Senator Feingold was similarly discarded as a potential contender because the President automatically deemed him too liberal to join the ticket. The Kerry White House was no exception to the American tradition of leakers liberally telling the press about the behind the scenes drama at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, and word quickly spread through the Beltway gossip circuit that the President was leaning towards selecting Senator Obama. Clinton desperately tried to appeal to the President through her allies in the Senate, questioning Senator Obama's electability and experience as well as promoting her own credentials as an experienced problem solver who could reset the administration's direction.

The irony of course was that Clinton did not actively desire the Vice Presidency, a relatively low pressure position within the context of American politics. What Clinton wanted was the Vice Presidential nomination, which would codify her as the heir apparent in 2012, when she could challenge the man she believed would be the next President - Jeb Bush. Clinton had little hope for President Kerry's reelection prospects, but had much hope for herself. But when Senator Obama communicated to the President that his wife Michelle was on board with him joining the Democratic ticket, Clinton's path to the Presidency became murkier. With the Democratic Convention in Denver looming, the clock was running out, and it was Obama who was leading on the President's scoreboard. The Clinton's desperately tried to use their large network of allies within Washington to push back at the potential Obama nomination, but there skepticism couldn't outweigh the President's optimism about the Senator. Just five days before the Democratic National Convention, President Kerry finally unveiled Senator Obama as his Vice Presidential candidate in the East Room of the White House. Obama's selection electrifies Democrats, with many pointing out the historic significance of his nomination. As the first black American to ever be named to a major party’s presidential ticket, Obama had skyrocketed to fame after his 2004 keynote address to the Democratic convention. Charismatic, well spoken, and with an academic background, Obama’s selection turned the race on its head.


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President Kerry and Senator Obama.
The Obama announcement is followed by the Democratic Convention in Denver, Colorado, where the Kerry/Obama ticket is unanimously nominated by delegates. Obama’s stirring speech to the crowded convention hall was widely praised, with many pundits noting that the Vice Presidential candidates' remarks were the best they’ve heard in decades of covering politics. The Democrats experienced a post-convention bump as the campaign got under way, with the Kerry/Obama ticket rising in the polls at the expense of Governor Bush. By painting the GOP as obstructionist, Kerry was able to pin his inability to get legislation passed on a “do nothing Congress,” though he still faced criticism for the passage of the ACA and Dream Act. But the Governor had a hard time trying to outflank the President on immigration; while supporting expansion of the border patrol and ICE, Bush also was one of the most openly pro-immigration Republicans in memory. Bush had supported the Dream Act and called for a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants. This came at a cost for the Republican nominee, as Tea Party conservatives balked as working class, blue collar Americans feared further economic displacement. Sensing such a weakness in an election that was increasingly defined by anxiety about an impending recession, Bush replaced his pro-immigration rhetoric with more policy driven remarks about the need for increased border security programs. President Kerry on the other hand flouted the Dream Act as being one of his favorite accomplishments, and accused Governor Bush of flip-flopping on the issue. For a moment, the President felt that the campaign might turn around after all. But then the political debate over immigration abated virtually overnight as economic concerns were thrust into the spotlight.

Having lost millions in mortgage securities, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were placed under the control of the Treasury Department by Treasury Secretary Eizenstadt as part of an effort to prevent them from collapse. This sends Wall Street reeling as the market plummets, with stock prices collapsing virtually overnight. Though the President insisted that “the fundamentals of the economy are strong” during a nationally broadcast speech from the Oval Office, his words seemed to ring hollow. But the worst was yet to come; in mid-September, Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy, owing over $600 billion in debt. It was the largest bankruptcy in history at that point in time. The collapse of Lehman Brothers sent shockwaves through the economy, which weakened other faltering institutions with it. The largest of these, AIG, was one of many institutions that were considered “too big to fail.” In order to shore up the market, the Treasury Department purchased 85% of AIG’s stock as part of an effort to prevent the collapse of the firm.


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Kerry attempted to remedy the situation within the executive branch by firing Mary Jo White, the Chairwoman of the Securities and Exchange Commission. The SEC then responded by banning the short selling of stocks, while the President suspended his reelection campaign to meet with the leadership of both parties in order to hammer out a plan to stabilize the economy. Proposing a “Troubled Asset Relief Program” (TARP), an economic adviser and academic Elizabeth Warren quickly gets a blueprint together for a $700 billion rescue plan on behalf of the President. While Speaker Dreier and Senator McConnell studied the proposal and reached out to their caucuses, the Federal Deposit Insurance Company seized control of Washington Mutual as the bank teetered on collapse; the institution was later purchased by J.P. Morgan Chase. Soon after, the Financial Stabilization Act was introduced to the House of Representatives, where it was met with opposition from conservatives and progressives alike. The efforts of Speaker Dreier and Minority Leader Pelosi to expedite its passage was thwarted when the House of Representatives rejected the bill by a vote of 255-180. The news was enough to throw Wall Street, already teetering on panic, into a tailspin as the Dow dropped 778 points in its biggest single day loss ever. Senator McConnell immediately tasks Senate Finance Committee chair Chuck Grassley (R-IA) to draft a new version of the bill which could draw in conservative, Tea Party backed candidates.

In Pakistan, the parliament finally compels President Musharraf to resign. It would not be long until the deposed military dictator left Pakistan all together, removing himself from the troubled nation for a period of posh and secure exile in London. The new government led by Prime Minister Bhutto, who has been in office since March, capitalizes on the chaos and manages to manipulate the parliament into electing Asif Ali Zardari, a political ally, as President in Musharraf's place. Both Bhutto and Zardari voice support for a plan that would amend the Pakistani constitution to reduce the powers of the Presidency and increase the influence of the Prime Minister instead, which would consolidate Bhutto's power. Secretary of State Holbrooke watched these events from Washington, knowing that Pakistan's role in the War on Terror was essential. Though Bhutto was pro-western in her international outlook, her populist opposition to drone strikes within Pakistani territory potentially threatened to cripple the administration's ability to wage an effective campaign against militants in Afghanistan.

As the election neared its close, another scandal was brewing within the administration in regards to the soon to be former Vice President; it began after Edward’s Chief of Staff Andrew Young took responsibility for fathering a child with Rielle Hunter. An internal Secret Service inquiry into why the Vice President was alone in a hotel room with his mistress without any agents posted outside was quickly referred to the FBI after several agents alleged they were paid off by Young (possibly with campaign funds donated by elderly heiress Rachel “Bunny” Melton) in order to allow the Vice President a chance to slip away. Confronted by these allegations, Young turns on the Vice President and accuses him of misusing campaign funds. The Edwards scandal now appears to take a criminal turn as the Department of Justice and FBI begin investigating the Vice President, with the media speculating that he could likely face indictment after the election.

The month ends with the first presidential debate being held at the University of Mississippi in Oxford, which President Kerry only agreed to attend at the last minute, having suspended active campaigning to work on passing a bailout package to stabilize the markets. The debate would be disastrous; though he was not known for being energetic, Jeb Bush ran circles around a sleep deprived, bumbling President. In the wake of the first debate, Bush was hailed by the press as the winner. Focus groups and polls taken afterward showed that 64% of viewers thought Bush had won, while merely 29% thought Kerry had won.


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2008 Presidential Election
(REP) Jeb Bush: 51%
(DEM) John Kerry: 43%
Undecided: 4%
(LBT) Weld: 1%
(GRE) Ventura: 1%

Presidential Approval Rating

Disapprove: 62%
Approve: 35%
Undecided: 3%
 
The Kerry Administration just can’t catch a break. As for the ACA “Kiddycare” how much is this costing the government? And where did the government get the funds for it? A new tax somewhere or other programs/departments cut to pay for this.

Since it seems Kerry has done a more thorough withdrawal of forces from Iraq minus that surge in 2005/2006 (if I’m remembering correctly) does this mean the U.S. National Debt is not as high as OTL. By 2008 in OTL the debt was $6.37 trillion.

Also what are the cost of Americans lives so far here compared to OTL?
 
The Kerry Administration just can’t catch a break. As for the ACA “Kiddycare” how much is this costing the government? And where did the government get the funds for it? A new tax somewhere or other programs/departments cut to pay for this.

Since it seems Kerry has done a more thorough withdrawal of forces from Iraq minus that surge in 2005/2006 (if I’m remembering correctly) does this mean the U.S. National Debt is not as high as OTL. By 2008 in OTL the debt was $6.37 trillion.

Also what are the cost of Americans lives so far here compared to OTL?
Great questions, and I confess that I can't give you the best answer here, but I'll try.

I'll start with foreign policy events. The Iraq withdrawal is slowly underway, but it is only in the initial phases because the surge needed to pacify Iraq took time to implement. The Iraqi Civil War in this timeline still is underway, and like OTL will worsen once American troops are out of the country. The war is still underway, and thus spending on Iraq is still high, but the lower amount of troops would certainly offset the cost to a degree. However, the national debt overall is slightly higher than OTL, because the amount of spending on the Medicare is up significantly. "Kiddycare" means that there are 74.1 million American children now receiving free healthcare on top of the existing OTL population of Medicare enrollees of 44 million. So basically a third of the country is now receiving free healthcare, which is going to increase social spending.

On the other hand, while spending is higher and the deficit bigger, working class families are having a slightly better go at things than in OTL. The average savings for an American family of four on health insurance would be around $1,500~$2,000 a year considering the average family plan at the time cost about $350 a month at the time according to Google. So if you halve the payment (assuming they have, say, two kids on the Medicare youth plan) to $175 a month.

But the ACA of ATL is basically the same as the OTL bill plus Kiddycare, so it isn't perfect. The individual mandate isn't popular, the online marketplaces are slow and convoluted, and there is increased Medicare fraud being discovered on a regular basis. It's more controversial than the OTL bill to the right, and many independent/centrist voters are more skeptical of it than they were the OTL ACA because of the greater expansion of the government bureaucracy.
 
Kerry/Obama is an interesting pairing and one that I do find....well, a little nerve-wracking to be honest. There is going to be a lot of mud slung about, and that is for sure. And this is going disastrously for Kerry as well which is so frustrating and aaargh.

I mean....the Bush/Pawlenty ticket can't run a perfect campaign forever though, right? I don't know but fingers crossed, eh?
 
Great questions, and I confess that I can't give you the best answer here, but I'll try.

I'll start with foreign policy events. The Iraq withdrawal is slowly underway, but it is only in the initial phases because the surge needed to pacify Iraq took time to implement. The Iraqi Civil War in this timeline still is underway, and like OTL will worsen once American troops are out of the country. The war is still underway, and thus spending on Iraq is still high, but the lower amount of troops would certainly offset the cost to a degree. However, the national debt overall is slightly higher than OTL, because the amount of spending on the Medicare is up significantly. "Kiddycare" means that there are 74.1 million American children now receiving free healthcare on top of the existing OTL population of Medicare enrollees of 44 million. So basically a third of the country is now receiving free healthcare, which is going to increase social spending.

On the other hand, while spending is higher and the deficit bigger, working class families are having a slightly better go at things than in OTL. The average savings for an American family of four on health insurance would be around $1,500~$2,000 a year considering the average family plan at the time cost about $350 a month at the time according to Google. So if you halve the payment (assuming they have, say, two kids on the Medicare youth plan) to $175 a month.

But the ACA of ATL is basically the same as the OTL bill plus Kiddycare, so it isn't perfect. The individual mandate isn't popular, the online marketplaces are slow and convoluted, and there is increased Medicare fraud being discovered on a regular basis. It's more controversial than the OTL bill to the right, and many independent/centrist voters are more skeptical of it than they were the OTL ACA because of the greater expansion of the government bureaucracy.
Ah that makes sense. And it seems Kerry is willing to be a drone strike/naval blockade/economic sanction President rather than land invasion President so that could bode well in the future to prevent mass loss of American lives and make foreign intervention more tolerable as long as American soldiers aren’t put into direct danger.

Yeah that would definitely increase cost. But if families are saving money on Kiddycare, wouldn’t this increase federal and state revenue due to sales taxes and the like as Americans have more money to spend, therefore helping balance out the child healthcare?

If Kerry somehow wins a second term, as of now it looks very Jeb heavy, to offset the increased federal deficit he raises the corporate tax rate like a half percent, trimming the size of the military a bit by say a 100,000 and could pass a tax on Wall Street Speculation, could be something like 0.01% which all these would still earn/save tens of billions

If Kerry and co can nab Osama bin Laden in the near future that’ll be a huge popularity boost and he can declare the next phase of the War on Terror, a smaller one where US military im acts more like a scalpel rather than a jackhammer.

Excited to see if the third Bush wins it. I’ll be sure to clap once before he even has to ask. And a Kerry/Obama ticket will be pretty strong, appealing to the African-American vote and younger voters.

It would be hilarious if ¡Jeb! Wins and he becomes a one term president then Obama wins. That’s three one term presidents all from the same family.
 
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Also Medicare for kids (75,000,000) would be very cheap even if it triples the number of Medicare recipients. The 40 million old people covered would on average use more in healthcare.
 
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