Repercussions of Successful 1848 Revolutions

kernals12

Banned
1848 was a big missed opportunity for democracy and liberty. Revolutions raged across central Europe: it started in France where the peasants successfully overthrew King Louis-Phillippe, revolts broke out across the Italian states and King Charles Albert of Sardinia led a war to unite the peninsula under a liberal constitution, it hit Hungary where people demanded more freedom and eventually independence from the Austrian empire, it hit Germany where a constitutional assembly in Frankfurt drafted a liberal constitution that would've united the nation and made an offer to Frederick William IV of Prussia to be Kaiser.
But it all fell apart. Charles Albert was defeated by the Austrians, ironically with Hungarian assistance. The Austrians got help from the Russians to crush the Hungarian uprising. This made Frederick William IV confident enough to not accept the Frankfurt parliament's offer and give up most of his powers. In France, the revolution was hijacked, perhaps predictably, by Napoleon Bonaparte's grandson who became President of the Republic and crowned himself Emperor in 1852. This was a disaster, and it delayed the emergence of democracy in some of the places effected until 1989.
So what if the Hungarians declare their independence earlier, therefore depriving the Austrians of the troops needed to defeat the Sardinians allowing Italy to be united under a liberal order and Frederick William IV decides to take Frankfurt's offer? Would we see the revolution spread to Russia, Turkey, and Spain? Would the remainder of Austria decide to merge into the new German state?
 
The Russian Empire and the Ottoman Empire have their own internal political situations which will not be radically altered by these events. The Carlists were attempting to take power from the more liberal Isabellines in Spain at this time, and the Carlists were not doing well in 1848. Republicanism wouldn't become popular in Spain for several more decades. I don't think Spain will be affected in its domestic politics.

I think Austria can hold onto Silesia, Bohemia, Moravia, Tyrol, Trento, Trieste, Veneto, Carniola, and Istria. Slovakia and Galicia are oriented more towards Hungary, so I don't think it would be smart of Austria to try to hold onto them - but that doesn't mean they wont try.

I recall that the Hungarians did not have any care, nor concern for the liberty of different ethnic groups living as minorities among them, and that the behavior of Hungarian politics had made an enmity between them and the Croats before 1848. Without a friendly Croatia the Hungarians will have a very difficult time in this after math.

The Russians might try to barge down into the Balkans to free a bunch of territory from the Ottoman Empire.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
The Russian Empire and the Ottoman Empire have their own internal political situations which will not be radically altered by these events. The Carlists were attempting to take power from the more liberal Isabellines in Spain at this time, and the Carlists were not doing well in 1848. Republicanism wouldn't become popular in Spain for several more decades. I don't think Spain will be affected in its domestic politics.

I think Austria can hold onto Silesia, Bohemia, Moravia, Tyrol, Trento, Trieste, Veneto, Carniola, and Istria. Slovakia and Galicia are oriented more towards Hungary, so I don't think it would be smart of Austria to try to hold onto them - but that doesn't mean they wont try.

I recall that the Hungarians did not have any care, nor concern for the liberty of different ethnic groups living as minorities among them, and that the behavior of Hungarian politics had made an enmity between them and the Croats before 1848. Without a friendly Croatia the Hungarians will have a very difficult time in this after math.

The Russians might try to barge down into the Balkans to free a bunch of territory from the Ottoman Empire.

The Ottomans might be able to bite back fairly effectively at the time.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
Hard to say. I would leave that to authorial choice. I would say if the Russians do attack the maximum success they could attain in the lifetime of Nicholas is obtaining a boundary on the Danube. Any Serb or Greek invasion/agitation would be handily smashed, there would not even be rebellion in Bulgaria.
 
Do you think Nicholas I would try to pick that fight?

With the nightmare of a Liberal centeral Europe staring him in the face and Britain and France as robust as ever? I think he's more likely to focus on securing Poland given this giant new thing called "Germany" just popped up on his borders in a fashion opposed to everything he stands for. The Frankfurter Liberals aren't anti-French, and this time its Russia leaving her fellow Absolutists in the lurch rather than otl's other way around, so she can't count on any help
 
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