Wainwright tied the Japanese up for months. MacArthur Di Di Mau'd in early March.
Remember the Texas! The United States in World War II (an alternate history)
- Thread starter galveston bay
- Start date
Driftless
Donor
If the opening fight for the Americans is in Europe more than six months earlier, will FDR let Marshall have his way to be the US (Allied??) ETO commander, or does FDR hold out for Marshall to run the operations back in Washington? Then, who's up next? Too soon for Ike, or does he get the gig anyway?
The really couldn't execute their battle plan without six decks, The attacked Pearl 24 DAYS after Zuikaku officially joined CarDiv 5.
The issue is that war plan only works against nations that dont have ease of supply from their main bases, I.e. Russian and U.K. Against the U.S. it wouldnt work, too easy for the U.S. do do what they did irl and just out produce Japan...
Seems like a lot of things are going wrong in Texas at the moment. Hope you make it through OK.
The U.S. will go through almost the identical process that happened IOTL, just five months sooner. "Europe (Germany) 1st" had been FDR's mantra since 1940. Country is still not really ready for war. The B-17E is not in production yet, nor is the B-24D, which were the first real combat capable versions of those aircraft, same goes for the B-25B. Neither the Lightening nor the P-47 are ready for their close-ups,. all the Air Corps had on hand are P-36, P-39, and early B-40B. Fleet is still getting its first real issue of of hulls from the Two Oceans Navy Act. Be interesting to see if Stark bring King in as happened IOTL or of Stark manages to pass the blame for Drumbeat onto King.
One of the interesting things now is that Kimmel and Short will not get their asses fired, so Nimitz and Emmons are at loose ends. Emmons was a administrator, with no real distinguished WW II combat record (although he was the man who flat out refused to send the Japanese American in Hawaii to the U.S. interment camps, so he get full marks for that and notation that he possessed a backbone), but Nimitz turned out to be one of the great U.S. officers, regardless of branch, in the entire war. Still it is hard to see a place for him in this scenario.
One of the interesting things now is that Kimmel and Short will not get their asses fired, so Nimitz and Emmons are at loose ends. Emmons was a administrator, with no real distinguished WW II combat record (although he was the man who flat out refused to send the Japanese American in Hawaii to the U.S. interment camps, so he get full marks for that and notation that he possessed a backbone), but Nimitz turned out to be one of the great U.S. officers, regardless of branch, in the entire war. Still it is hard to see a place for him in this scenario.
I have a plan for Stark, Kimmel, King and Nimitz. Short isn't terribly important, although until December 7 he was a well regarded Infantry commander so he will likely avoid the ignomony of his fate OTL. Certainly sending B17s and a lot of P40s to the PI makes a lot less sense now however, and the strategic debate of the defending the Philippines strongly vs the Hawaii-Alaska-Panama line has been settled by War Plan Orange. With the Germany first strategy all but settled one rainy evening in June, I cannot see how the Philippines will rate anymore importance than it did in 1918 so MacArthur isn't going to be getting OTL reinforcements to the degree he will demand.
As he is literally incapable of shutting up, this will not do much for his career prospects to come. FDR has already fired a major commander for not shutting up (Richardson)
It should be noted throughout the 1930s (per Guardians of Empire, US Army and the Pacific 1902-40) Orange Nationals were only to be detained on Hawaii if a clear threat and widespread internment was not planned for or expected. (interesting book, worth picking up for you Pacific War folks) (Brian MaAllister Linn, 1997)
the final decision point for Japan was based on two things.. 1) what seems like certain Nazi victory over Communist Soviet Union based on what they see in Summer Fall 1941, and 2) final August 1941 oil embargo on Japan, which is caused by the Japanese seizure of the remainder of French Indochina and clear preparations for a move south against the European empires. A lot of the American effort to reinforce the Philippines was in part hopes to deter the Japanese and part to prepare for a future war. I will address those things
As to letting the Americans come to them... that was the battle plan until Yamamoto stepped in, but a Pearl Harbor strike requires the US battlefleet to be in place in sufficient numbers and sufficiently ill prepared for a strike to be worth the risk. As for Tsushima Redux.. the Japanese got it... twice.... and lost at Philippine Sea and Leyte Gulf. Decisive battles both (just not in the way the Japanese hoped for)
Driftless
Donor
I had recently read the book. One of the strong impressions I came away with is that in regard to the PI, the Army, almost from the get-go saw the PI, especially Luzon as indefensible against a determined Japanese attack. Ligget's tactical ride and analysis in 1914 (With then Lt. George C. Marshall as ADC) pretty much nailed the Japanese battle plan of 1941-42. Other commanders, (JF Bell?) considered declaring Manila an open city to avoid it's destruction in case of that powerful attack.
its a really impressive work and has a permanent place on my book shelf
The Army was never enthusiastic about defending the PI for the reasons you mentioned. It took Macarthur and Roosevelt (and Hap Arnold promises) to change the commitment level and now Hap Arnold has a war against the Germans to concentrate on and Roosevelt rightfully sees the Germans as the far more dangerous threat. The Army and Navy are both resource limited in June 1941 and that does not work well for Macarthur and his ambitious plans for a beach defense.
Chapter 2 (part two) A Call to War
A call to war
Word reaches the White House within minutes of the first report of the torpedoing of the Texas and it is a major shock. A mere 3 days ago, President Roosevelt ordered the closing of all German consulates in the United States and expulsion of their German employees no later than July 10, on the grounds of improper activities "inimical to the welfare of this country. The State Department reported just this afternoon that the Italians and Germans have reciprocated as expected. It is beginning to look however that the Germans have effectively declared war, and like their previous invasions of the Low Countries and Scandinavia, without so much as a declaration of war. The British have suffered a recent series of defeats in Greece, North Africa and are even now fighting in French Levant and in Libya, and the issue is in doubt. From the experience of the Great War it is indeed possible that the Germans have decided to attempt to finish the job against the British and further attacks against American shipping is definitely to be expected based on todays events. Indeed it may very well be German retaliation for the American occupation of Greenland and Iceland.
The German Chargé d'Affaires Hans Thomsen is summoned to a meeting with Secretary of State Cordell Hull, and of course he is completely surprised by the summons, although there are concerns that the Americans are about to escalate the increasing diplomatic tensions. By the time he arrives at 6 PM Eastern time, the White House and Roosevelt have been informed of the loss as has Hull, and anger is in the air. Naturally Thomsen has no idea and is indeed completely shocked by the report of the attack on the Texas and is stunned by the loss. However he is a professional and thus denies that attack was premediated (and indeed hopes he is right). Hull dismisses him, as it is obvious to him if the attack was premediated that the Third Reich neglected to tell their diplomats.
The Roosevelt Administration is able to keep the news initially quiet but after consulting with the Speaker of the House Sam Rayburn (who is particularly outraged that the ship named after his home state has been sunk and 460 sailors lost with it) and President Pro Tem Pat Harrison (D-Mississippi) that evening the three men believe that they can now get a declaration of war against Germany through Congress. By 8 PM local time, the Press is informed that an important announcement will be made at 9 PM from the Diplomatic Reception room of the White House, the usual location of his Fireside Chats and that the People will be addressed at the same time. His speech would electrify the nation in a way not seen since 1898 when another American battleship was lost.
“My fellow Americans:
The Navy Department of the United States has reported to me that this evening, June 19, 1941, while carrying out a routine patrol of waters declared to be in waters the Government of the United States had declared to be waters of self defense, the USS Texas, a battleship, and her escorts where deliberately attacked by a German submarine. The USS Texas was flying an American flag and was sunk by that attack, and over 400 American lives are known to have been lost. I must tell you the blunt fact that the German submarine fired first upon our ship, without warning and with the deliberate design to sink her.”
excerpt President Roosevelt Fireside Chat June 20, 1941
In the speech Roosevelt goes on to report the loss of the SS Robin Moore in May, reported attacks on other American and Panamanian merchant ships and claims that the Germans are demonstrating a deliberate attempt to close the Atlantic Ocean to American and other neutral nations.
Meanwhile in Germany, the urgent cable from Thomsen reaches Berlin at just before the start of the business day (due to the 9 hours time difference) and Hitler is not immediately informed as he does not awaken until three hours later. Hitler is shocked and enraged by what he calls the stupidity of the Kreigsmarine and Admiral Raeder is summoned to explain. The Admiral has of course no idea as standing orders remain to avoid American warships and no word has yet reached command from any U-boat reporting such an attack. But it is clear the Americans are not lying and with only two days and counting before Operation Barbarossa, Hitler decides to stall in hopes the Americans are not yet ready for war. He considers relieving his naval commanders but decides this close to Barbarossa that now is not the time. His main hope is that it is Friday, and the soonest the American government can react will be Monday and the Isolationists in America and its general unpreparedness for war will keep the Americans from reacting effectively beyond words and more support for Britain.
In any event, Barbarossa is about to begin, and that is the priority. Hitler is certain the Wehrmacht will defeat the Soviets before winter, and the Americans will not be able to do anything to prevent that in any event, and thus the Americans and British can be dealt with after that. He orders Barbarossa preparations to continue and orders the Raeder to order immediately that German warships are not to engage the Americans without orders and to find out what happened as soon as possible.
It is early evening when the report from the U-203 is received, claiming to have sunk a British battleship, and the German Navy has to report with embarrassment the facts. While the Americans are making political decisions through the weekend, Hitler orders Goebbels to report that the Americans attacked a German warship and it defended itself on the high seas and further American aggression will be defended against.
This reaches American newspapers by Saturday June 21 and makes headlines and has exactly the opposite effect that Hitler expects. Within 24 hours the massive story of the German invasion of the Soviet Union reaches the papers in the United States and immediately brings in the Far Left in the United States in favor of war with Germany. In a few short days war between the United States and Nazi Germany becomes a certainty.
On Tuesday, June 24, 1941, President Roosevelt asks for a declaration of war against Germany after calling the attack on the USS Texas a day that will live in infamy. In Congress, strong opponents to Lend Lease such as Hamilton Fish (R-New York) and Dewey Short (R-Missouri) in the House come out in favor of war as the United States was attacked without warning, while in the Senate, the conservative Republican Robert Taft changes his position as well. This leads to a vote in the House where 100% of the Democrats and 50% of the Republicans vote for war (325-100) and in the Senate, more rally behind the President so it passes with only 8 Republicans voting against.
The United States has entered World War II.
Word reaches the White House within minutes of the first report of the torpedoing of the Texas and it is a major shock. A mere 3 days ago, President Roosevelt ordered the closing of all German consulates in the United States and expulsion of their German employees no later than July 10, on the grounds of improper activities "inimical to the welfare of this country. The State Department reported just this afternoon that the Italians and Germans have reciprocated as expected. It is beginning to look however that the Germans have effectively declared war, and like their previous invasions of the Low Countries and Scandinavia, without so much as a declaration of war. The British have suffered a recent series of defeats in Greece, North Africa and are even now fighting in French Levant and in Libya, and the issue is in doubt. From the experience of the Great War it is indeed possible that the Germans have decided to attempt to finish the job against the British and further attacks against American shipping is definitely to be expected based on todays events. Indeed it may very well be German retaliation for the American occupation of Greenland and Iceland.
The German Chargé d'Affaires Hans Thomsen is summoned to a meeting with Secretary of State Cordell Hull, and of course he is completely surprised by the summons, although there are concerns that the Americans are about to escalate the increasing diplomatic tensions. By the time he arrives at 6 PM Eastern time, the White House and Roosevelt have been informed of the loss as has Hull, and anger is in the air. Naturally Thomsen has no idea and is indeed completely shocked by the report of the attack on the Texas and is stunned by the loss. However he is a professional and thus denies that attack was premediated (and indeed hopes he is right). Hull dismisses him, as it is obvious to him if the attack was premediated that the Third Reich neglected to tell their diplomats.
The Roosevelt Administration is able to keep the news initially quiet but after consulting with the Speaker of the House Sam Rayburn (who is particularly outraged that the ship named after his home state has been sunk and 460 sailors lost with it) and President Pro Tem Pat Harrison (D-Mississippi) that evening the three men believe that they can now get a declaration of war against Germany through Congress. By 8 PM local time, the Press is informed that an important announcement will be made at 9 PM from the Diplomatic Reception room of the White House, the usual location of his Fireside Chats and that the People will be addressed at the same time. His speech would electrify the nation in a way not seen since 1898 when another American battleship was lost.
“My fellow Americans:
The Navy Department of the United States has reported to me that this evening, June 19, 1941, while carrying out a routine patrol of waters declared to be in waters the Government of the United States had declared to be waters of self defense, the USS Texas, a battleship, and her escorts where deliberately attacked by a German submarine. The USS Texas was flying an American flag and was sunk by that attack, and over 400 American lives are known to have been lost. I must tell you the blunt fact that the German submarine fired first upon our ship, without warning and with the deliberate design to sink her.”
excerpt President Roosevelt Fireside Chat June 20, 1941
In the speech Roosevelt goes on to report the loss of the SS Robin Moore in May, reported attacks on other American and Panamanian merchant ships and claims that the Germans are demonstrating a deliberate attempt to close the Atlantic Ocean to American and other neutral nations.
Meanwhile in Germany, the urgent cable from Thomsen reaches Berlin at just before the start of the business day (due to the 9 hours time difference) and Hitler is not immediately informed as he does not awaken until three hours later. Hitler is shocked and enraged by what he calls the stupidity of the Kreigsmarine and Admiral Raeder is summoned to explain. The Admiral has of course no idea as standing orders remain to avoid American warships and no word has yet reached command from any U-boat reporting such an attack. But it is clear the Americans are not lying and with only two days and counting before Operation Barbarossa, Hitler decides to stall in hopes the Americans are not yet ready for war. He considers relieving his naval commanders but decides this close to Barbarossa that now is not the time. His main hope is that it is Friday, and the soonest the American government can react will be Monday and the Isolationists in America and its general unpreparedness for war will keep the Americans from reacting effectively beyond words and more support for Britain.
In any event, Barbarossa is about to begin, and that is the priority. Hitler is certain the Wehrmacht will defeat the Soviets before winter, and the Americans will not be able to do anything to prevent that in any event, and thus the Americans and British can be dealt with after that. He orders Barbarossa preparations to continue and orders the Raeder to order immediately that German warships are not to engage the Americans without orders and to find out what happened as soon as possible.
It is early evening when the report from the U-203 is received, claiming to have sunk a British battleship, and the German Navy has to report with embarrassment the facts. While the Americans are making political decisions through the weekend, Hitler orders Goebbels to report that the Americans attacked a German warship and it defended itself on the high seas and further American aggression will be defended against.
This reaches American newspapers by Saturday June 21 and makes headlines and has exactly the opposite effect that Hitler expects. Within 24 hours the massive story of the German invasion of the Soviet Union reaches the papers in the United States and immediately brings in the Far Left in the United States in favor of war with Germany. In a few short days war between the United States and Nazi Germany becomes a certainty.
On Tuesday, June 24, 1941, President Roosevelt asks for a declaration of war against Germany after calling the attack on the USS Texas a day that will live in infamy. In Congress, strong opponents to Lend Lease such as Hamilton Fish (R-New York) and Dewey Short (R-Missouri) in the House come out in favor of war as the United States was attacked without warning, while in the Senate, the conservative Republican Robert Taft changes his position as well. This leads to a vote in the House where 100% of the Democrats and 50% of the Republicans vote for war (325-100) and in the Senate, more rally behind the President so it passes with only 8 Republicans voting against.
The United States has entered World War II.
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authors note: judgement call on who would vote for war but the attack, German claims and then the attack on the Soviet Union makes it clear to most Americans that the Germans are dangerous and intend to fight America sooner rather than later. Plus now the Far Left switches positions from anti war to pro war and there is more than sufficient support.
The American Firsters of prominence will be a problem, more so than in OTL, but not sufficiently strong enough to prevent war with this kind of trigger. Battleships are a matter of national pride and the Germans sank one and didn't even apologize (nor would they be likely to be in my view)
this isn't a destroyer or a gunboat (Panay)
The American Firsters of prominence will be a problem, more so than in OTL, but not sufficiently strong enough to prevent war with this kind of trigger. Battleships are a matter of national pride and the Germans sank one and didn't even apologize (nor would they be likely to be in my view)
this isn't a destroyer or a gunboat (Panay)
Geon
Donor
Here are some thoughts on my part.
First - this is definitely not on the scale of the Pearl Harbor attack. The American people will not be at the same level of outrage they were after Pearl Harbor in OTL.
You are likely to hear a lot of conspiracy theories with Republicans and American First members demanding a full investigation of the sinking. There will be a suspicion that at the very least FDR "arranged" this little incident to trigger a shooting war with Germany. Pearl Harbor conspiracy theories exist to this date and frankly any good historian would be able to refute them...not so here. There will be public officials and later historians debating whether this attack was deliberately provoked. And this will get all the worse as the years pass.
As to the war itself, the U.S. starts with most of its Navy intact as opposed to the disaster of OTL in the Pacific. Japan must now approach the matter more cautiously. But I suspect she will still go to war with the U.S. Japan can't back down at this point. Unless Tojo is willing to abandon Indochina - which he isn't - Japan is going to have to dive into this war. But I suspect they will do so in a much more careful manner then they did in OTL.
It will take a while for the U.S. to get organized. So, I suspect Barbarossa goes on as planned. How HItler will deal with the unexpected entry of the U.S. into the war will be interesting.
First - this is definitely not on the scale of the Pearl Harbor attack. The American people will not be at the same level of outrage they were after Pearl Harbor in OTL.
You are likely to hear a lot of conspiracy theories with Republicans and American First members demanding a full investigation of the sinking. There will be a suspicion that at the very least FDR "arranged" this little incident to trigger a shooting war with Germany. Pearl Harbor conspiracy theories exist to this date and frankly any good historian would be able to refute them...not so here. There will be public officials and later historians debating whether this attack was deliberately provoked. And this will get all the worse as the years pass.
As to the war itself, the U.S. starts with most of its Navy intact as opposed to the disaster of OTL in the Pacific. Japan must now approach the matter more cautiously. But I suspect she will still go to war with the U.S. Japan can't back down at this point. Unless Tojo is willing to abandon Indochina - which he isn't - Japan is going to have to dive into this war. But I suspect they will do so in a much more careful manner then they did in OTL.
It will take a while for the U.S. to get organized. So, I suspect Barbarossa goes on as planned. How HItler will deal with the unexpected entry of the U.S. into the war will be interesting.
I wonder if this will push D-Day forward? As I always understood it Roosevelt IOTL was always pushing for it to happen as soon as possible, and with the USA entering over a year earlier, he might get his wish.
Less than six months. If Japan doesn't start anything for another couple years, the extra lead time plus not needing a bunch of landing craft in the Pacific might get D-Day brought up to '43. At that point, the question will be whether the Allies can generate sufficient air superiority by then.
I think the big effect in the short term will be aid to the Soviets coming sooner. The Soviets received very little Lend-Lease in '42 OTL; that'll probably change a bit here.
Problem is the US will almost certainly embargo oil as per OTL in August 1941 since the driver was the Japanese occupation of Indo-China that has already happened. Once that is in place , Japan is on a clock, it literally has to attack by the end of 1942 or it will not have the means to do so. So Japan has effectively two choices , attack roughly on the same timescale as OTL ( as the longer it waits the greater the US will have built up ) or back down. Given the attitudes of the day, the former is much more likely .
While I doubt the OP will go in this direction, here is a Nightmare Scenario:
War has begun with the Germans. Even less chance that substantial reinforcement will go to the PI, especially in peacetime with Japan. The American public calls for America's most well know soldier, the former Chief of Staff, to be brought back to command the American Host against the Reich.
"Ladies and gentlemen, allow me to formally introduce the Supreme Allied Commander in Europe. General Douglas MacArthur."
The assembled media goes wild with joy!
War has begun with the Germans. Even less chance that substantial reinforcement will go to the PI, especially in peacetime with Japan. The American public calls for America's most well know soldier, the former Chief of Staff, to be brought back to command the American Host against the Reich.
"Ladies and gentlemen, allow me to formally introduce the Supreme Allied Commander in Europe. General Douglas MacArthur."
The assembled media goes wild with joy!