Okay... I see the problems as the operation develops in these terms.
Force Z cannot catch Cerberus Force at all, so that looks like a replay of the Channel Dash with the added feature of LANTFLT swanning about providing LFK 10 with target practice.
What are the CTFs doing now? Instead of moving quickly to protect the exposed Force Z, their position, as of now, has me wondering.
Force Y, as it approaches St Nazaire, can expect an extremely HOT reception. USN 35.6 cm guns may hit harder than German 28 cm guns, but they do not outrange them.
Fliegerkorps 10 is in the most enviable position, if they can get the proper reinforcements in time from the German strategic metro reserve, of giving Force Y a real hurting with anti-ship strikes, while also seeing Cerberus Force off as far as Le Havre, at which the handoff to their compatriots further east is accomplished. It would take a day to fly the anti-ship assets in from the German Baltic and Norwegian air commands if they move fast.
In short, this operation, as the time interval advances, seems to have developed in a direction, which if I am the German commander, I am liking...
If I were the Americans, I would be giving the OTC and the planners of this op a real ass-chewing and possibly firing him and them.