Reinsurance Treaty or Treaty of Björkö Prevent WWI?

Reinsurance Treaty or Treaty of Björkö Prevent WWI?

I was reading through an older thread on this and was curious in opinions on the issue. Say Kaiser-Tsar are able to force the treaty through what are the potential effects? Would it have been enough to prevent WWI? Result of a German-Russian defensive alliance and also if France joined. Britain's reaction?
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/what-was-so-bad-about-bjorko.287737/

The overall defense treaty contained four articles and was signed by Wilhelm II and Tsar Nicholas II. It was countersigned by Tchirschky, Count von Benckendorff, and Naval Minister Aleksey Birilyov.[2]

Their Imperial Majesties, the Emperor of All the Russias on the one side, and the German Emperor on the other, in order to insure the peace of Europe, have placed themselves in accord on the following points of the herein treaty relative to a defensive alliance:

  • Art. I. If any European state attacks one of the two empires, the allied party engages to aid the other contracting party with all his military and naval forces.
  • Art. II. The high contracting parties engage not to conclude with any common enemy a separate peace.
  • Art. III. The present treaty will become effective from the moment of the conclusion of the peace between Russia and Japan and may be denounced with a year's previous notification.
  • Art. IV. When this treaty has become effective, Russia will undertake the necessary steps to inform France of it and to propose to the latter to adhere to it as an ally.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Björkö
 
Just noticed I was a tad off with the date and posted in before 1900. I added Reinsurance Treaty to the topic to pull the POD back a bit. :oops:
 
Austria-Hungary and Russia's interests conflicted in the Balkans, and in the early 1880s Germany chose the AHE over Russia.

Also, Russia had a defense treaty with Serbia, and AHE had a defense treaty with Germany and Italy. This is the reason Italy didn't jump on Serbia/France/Russia, as it was bound to do so in the event that one of those countries was the attacker only, and Italy saw AHE as the attacker.
AHE still attacks Serbia.
Russia is treaty bound to defend Serbia.
Germany is treaty bound to defend AHE.

Hence, no real change will occur. Germany has a 0% chance of attacking the AHE, which was its only real ally, and Russia isn't going to be enough to change that. After all, Russia was still pretty much in the Middle Ages.

- BNC
 
But if Germany choses Russia over AHE, it changes everything. Yes, Russia is backward, but it also an enormous market and source of raw materials, food, gold etc. A wonderful place to expand for German economy power. Without AHE Germany had no conflict whatsoever with Russia, in fact, they had a common problem (Poles).
Also Russia had no problems with Germany at all; in fact many Germans made great careers in Russia; even Russian tsars, while officially Romanov, had a lot of German blood in their veins.
Combination of German industry and technology with Russia's resoures would actually be quite beneficial for both sides. Personally I think Germany had chosen AHE for mostly cultural and national reasons - Habsburgs were German family, after all.
So let's see: Germany gives up an alliance with AHE and makes pact with Russia: it gives Russia free hand concerning Balkans (Germany do not care about them) and at the same time gives Germany safe eastern border.
AHE would be desperately looking for allies, affraid about Russian bear looking at Balkans. So will France, always worried about power of Germany and dreaming about revenge for 1870. There is no conflict of interests between France and AHE, so they will become allies, IMO. They will be joint by Britain, desperate for creating a balnce on the continent, since German-Russian alliance would be much too powerful for Britain's taste. In early 1900s German Navy was already becoming a potential threat. While Russian Navy was nothing special, combinded German-Russian fleet might become a problem. Also, Russia was still a threat to the jewel of the British Empire, India. So Entente will be Britain, France, AHE and possibly Ottomans (affraid of Russia) against Germany, Russia and Italy.
 
That makes sense in 1882 or so, but in 1905 I think it was a bit late for a Russo-German alliance. Germany by this point is pretty firm in its alliance with AHE and has decided it feels threatened by Russia and France (the Schlieffen Plan was being made around then).

If we go with the Alliance of Three Emperors in the 1870s, or whatever that thing was called, and then Germany chooses Russia then, then I have absolutely no problem with such an alliance. However it does kind of butterfly WWI into something drastically different. That being the case, I think the following to be likely:

Royal marriages and stuff: doesn't make too much of an impact. All of the royal dynasties were so heavily intermarried that virtually all the rulers were close relatives.

Balkans: AHE wouldn't have gone ahead in the 3rd Balkan War without the 'blank cheque' offer, so the immediate cause of war doesn't really happen. Of course, given the situation of Europe after the unifications of Italy and Germany, a massive war was inevitable sooner or later.

AHE: They would go to France's side, as France and Austria were both beaten by Germany (1870 and 1866). Possibly this would cause them to be abandoned by France if the alt-Entente treaty is a defensive one, and AHE still the aggressor. Which means the 3rd Balkan War remains limited in scope, a massive defeat for the AHE.

Britain: They were still unhappy with France in 1870, although later they became more unhappy with Germany. As long as they aren't challenged to a naval arms race, they might as well stay out of it altogether. They only joined WWI because of the Belgium issue (1839 treaty of London), not because of any direct treaty with France.

Ottomans: They used the 'stealing' of a battleship or two by the UK as a casus belli. Without them, I reckon they would stay out too - their empire was an utter shambles.

Italy: Depends too much on the exact wording of treaties to really predict. I doubt they would have any major impact anyway.

- BNC
 

CaliGuy

Banned
But if Germany choses Russia over AHE, it changes everything. Yes, Russia is backward, but it also an enormous market and source of raw materials, food, gold etc. A wonderful place to expand for German economy power. Without AHE Germany had no conflict whatsoever with Russia, in fact, they had a common problem (Poles).
Also Russia had no problems with Germany at all; in fact many Germans made great careers in Russia; even Russian tsars, while officially Romanov, had a lot of German blood in their veins.
Combination of German industry and technology with Russia's resoures would actually be quite beneficial for both sides. Personally I think Germany had chosen AHE for mostly cultural and national reasons - Habsburgs were German family, after all.
So let's see: Germany gives up an alliance with AHE and makes pact with Russia: it gives Russia free hand concerning Balkans (Germany do not care about them) and at the same time gives Germany safe eastern border.
AHE would be desperately looking for allies, affraid about Russian bear looking at Balkans. So will France, always worried about power of Germany and dreaming about revenge for 1870. There is no conflict of interests between France and AHE, so they will become allies, IMO. They will be joint by Britain, desperate for creating a balnce on the continent, since German-Russian alliance would be much too powerful for Britain's taste. In early 1900s German Navy was already becoming a potential threat. While Russian Navy was nothing special, combinded German-Russian fleet might become a problem. Also, Russia was still a threat to the jewel of the British Empire, India. So Entente will be Britain, France, AHE and possibly Ottomans (affraid of Russia) against Germany, Russia and Italy.
Frankly, if Germany allies with Russia, it should (IMHO) take advantage of this and cooperate with Russia to dismantle Austria-Hungary; indeed, a German-Russo-Italian partition of Austria-Hungary should help Germany (even if it results in a war with France and Britain) due to the fact that it will allow Germany to annex the most industrialized parts of Austria-Hungary (German Austria, Bohemia, Moravia, the Sudetenland, and Pressburg (Bratislava)). :)
 
That makes sense in 1882 or so, but in 1905 I think it was a bit late for a Russo-German alliance. Germany by this point is pretty firm in its alliance with AHE and has decided it feels threatened by Russia and France (the Schlieffen Plan was being made around then).

Maybe, maybe not. It was in 1905 that Germany approached Russia with the proposal to coordinate their actions in case A-H blows up. It was not exactly an alliance offer, but it still reveals an ambiguous attitude towards Russia (and, equally important: a lack of faith in A-H, its stability and value).
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Maybe, maybe not. It was in 1905 that Germany approached Russia with the proposal to coordinate their actions in case A-H blows up. It was not exactly an alliance offer, but it still reveals an ambiguous attitude towards Russia (and, equally important: a lack of faith in A-H, its stability and value).
Did they come up with any definitive plans in 1905 as to what exactly they should do if A-H collapses, though?
 
Did they come up with any definitive plans in 1905 as to what exactly they should do if A-H collapses, though?

I don't think so. It was just a proposal that didn't go anywhere, especially since German-Russian relations turned pretty cold within the following 12 months.

The most important thing would have been to negotiate annexations and spheres of influence, so that the Habsburgs' implosion doesn't turn into a world war. I'm guessing Austria and Czechia taken, directly or indirectly, by Germany; Galicia by Russia. Some gains by Italy, Serbia and Romania, and a large Hungary in the middle of it all, acting as a neutral or German-leaning buffer.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
I don't think so. It was just a proposal that didn't go anywhere, especially since German-Russian relations turned pretty cold within the following 12 months.

The most important thing would have been to negotiate annexations and spheres of influence, so that the Habsburgs' implosion doesn't turn into a world war. I'm guessing Austria and Czechia taken, directly or indirectly, by Germany; Galicia by Russia. Some gains by Italy, Serbia and Romania, and a large Hungary in the middle of it all, acting as a neutral or German-leaning buffer.
Wouldn't Russia want Slovakia in such a scenario, though?
 
Wouldn't Russia want Slovakia in such a scenario, though?

Not sure. Letting the Slovaks go their own way would be the natural choice, but the Russian Empire was pretty "legitimist" and conservative. They might wish to keep all the crownlands of St. Stephen under Hungary, and Germany will almost certainly be pushing for that.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Not sure. Letting the Slovaks go their own way would be the natural choice, but the Russian Empire was pretty "legitimist" and conservative. They might wish to keep all the crownlands of St. Stephen under Hungary, and Germany will almost certainly be pushing for that.
Wasn't the Russian Empire also the patron of the Slavs, though?
 
AHE: They would go to France's side, as France and Austria were both beaten by Germany (1870 and 1866). Possibly this would cause them to be abandoned by France if the alt-Entente treaty is a defensive one, and AHE still the aggressor. Which means the 3rd Balkan War remains limited in scope, a massive defeat for the AHE.

If we postulate that Germany picks Russia over Austria ... then you've got a vastly different situation. The investments that allowed Russia to industrialize to the level it did OTL don't happen. That was French money, which will likely be going to Austria instead. Germany's own funds are largely tied up in its own national industries and is not available.

The end result is a significantly wealthier and more industrialized Austria and a significantly hobbled Russia. Would that make a difference? It might, not against Germany, but even there, it might. IOTL, the Germans needed to borrow some Austrian siege guns when the war began and the Austro-German border, for all that it is very, very long, is rather defensive.

Britain: They were still unhappy with France in 1870, although later they became more unhappy with Germany. As long as they aren't challenged to a naval arms race, they might as well stay out of it altogether. They only joined WWI because of the Belgium issue (1839 treaty of London), not because of any direct treaty with France.

Britain joins. Not only did they, at the time, view Russia as their main rival, the German alliance with Russia would paint a colossal target on Germany's back. Combined, the two are in a position to dominate the continent, which is something Britain cannot allow. That's why they ultimately went to war OTL, not Belgium, not the High Seas Fleet, but the idea that Germany would upset the balance of power and become top dog. Here the cause of stopping Germany (and Russia, which Britain is engaged with in the Great Game) is even more critical. While Britain wouldn't bind itself into an open alliance, they would be fully behind France (and Austria). They'd also, probably, try to turn the Ottomans to the alliance - this might include interfering in the Balkan Wars.

Even with that, there's no guarantee that Serbia ends up as Russia's pawn in the Balkans. It was originally Bulgaria, before Russia decided to switch targets and Serbia was under a pro-Austrian royal family until 1905 - plenty of time for everything to go wrong.

Ultimately, a Russo-German alliance (with Italy attached, but unlikely to join the war - they were utterly reliant on British coal to run their industries - Italy literally couldn't enter a war on a side other than the British one), where Russia is significantly weaker than it was OTL, is opposed by a Franco-Austrian alliance, where Austria is significantly stronger than OTL, which is backed by Britain. And potentially the Ottomans (they were, by default, favourable to the side that didn't include Russia).

It's less of a walk in the park than it might seem at first glance.
 
Slovakia is a no-go for Russia unless the partitioning powers decide to do a Trianon screw job on Hungary. No respectably independent Hungarian government would consent to the detachment of an integral part of the St Stephen crown lands, plus there was a substantial Magyar population in the southern counties of Slovakia. Even then, I don't think Germany would like an extension of Russia beyond the Carpathians and in that case the logical conclusion is still to leave Slovakia with Hungary.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Slovakia is a no-go for Russia unless the partitioning powers decide to do a Trianon screw job on Hungary. No respectably independent Hungarian government would consent to the detachment of an integral part of the St Stephen crown lands, plus there was a substantial Magyar population in the southern counties of Slovakia. Even then, I don't think Germany would like an extension of Russia beyond the Carpathians and in that case the logical conclusion is still to leave Slovakia with Hungary.
By that logic, though, detaching Transylvania from Hungary is likewise a no-go, correct?

Also, in regards to Hungarian-majority southern Slovakia, theoretically speaking, Slovakia can be partitioned.
 
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