Reich allies with China rather than Japan in WW2

i was wondering how WW2 would be different if the Germans focused on befriending Chaing Kai Shek rather than Hirohito/Tojo. How would this come to be? Would Japan join the Allies? Would Mao be able to establish a Red China?
 
Germany did have links with China...

...Despite Tsingtao, or because Japan never gave it back to China. I explored this in my next book and found it... Interesting, in the Chinese manner...

...Chiang and Mao were essentially competing warlords, in a three cornered fight with Japan. My favourite candidate for Chinese President is actually Marshal Yan Xishan of Shanxi, a capable man and a reformer, respected even by the Japanese as a man who kept his word.
 
It's hard for me to see this happening. I'll quote an old soc.history.what-if post of mine:

***

There is an interesting chapter entitled "Falling between two stools:
Nazi Germany's East Asian Policy" in Christian Leitz, *Nazi Foreign
Policy, 1933-1941: The Road to Global War* (2004) where he notes that the
Third Reich's originally friendly relations with China had their roots in
the Weimar Republic. Both Germany and China (even though the latter was
nominally one of the victors) considered themselves treated unfairly by
the peace settlement. As early as 1921 the Chinese Republic re-
established diplomatic relations with Germany, and "Influential groups
among Germany's business community, but also within the Reichswehr and the
Foreign Ministry, both advocated and actively pursued an improvement of
Germany's relationship to China. In the military spehere, this resulted
in the highly controversial dispatch of German military advisers to
Nanking in 1928, while in the economic field, German-Chinese trade
relations expanded even during the Depression with a growing number of
German companies establishing a presence in the country. From seventh
place among Germany's export markets in 1929, China was to rise to third
place seven years later." (p. 127) Japan, OTOH, was seen as a party to
the oppressive Versailles Treaty (and as late as the early 1930s Japan
failed to provide any support for the efforts of the Papen and Schleicher
governments to reduce the military restrictions imposed on Germany by that
treaty). German industrialists also complained about Japanese
competition, Japanese copying of German goods, etc.

For the first few years of the Third Reich, Hitler showed little interest
in Far Eastern affairs, and the Foreign Ministry, headed by Neurath, tried
to maintain a "balanced" policy toward China and Japan. (For a short
period in the mid-1930s the chief military adviser to Chiang Kai-shek was
none other than Gerneral Hans von Seeckt, one of the Reichswehr's leading
officers during the 1920's.) Ribbentrop was the man who made the most
strenuous efforts (even before he became Foreign Minister) to redirect the
focus of German Far Eastern policy away from China and toward Japan, with
whom he sought a real military alliance, not just the largely
propagandistic Anti-Comintern Pact.

So the question is: Without Ribbentrop, would Hitler still have changed
Germany to a pro-Japanese orientation as he did after the outbreak of the
Sino-Japanese War and especially from 1938 onward? (In 1938, the German
ambasador was recalled from Peking and German representation was reduced
to the level of chargé d'affaires; Manchukuo was officially recognized;
and most important, German military advisers were recalled--although a
small number resisted Nazi pressure and remained.) I think the answer is
Yes, because once China lost most of her largest cities to Japan it was
apparent that she could not do much for Germany economically. Moreover,
she was obviously too weak--fighting for her own survival--to be of any
military assistance. Japan, OTOH, was in a position to exert pressure on
the Soviet Union (and to some extent on Britain and France through their
colonies in the Far East) in peacetime and perhaps to be a German ally in
case of war. Also, "The growing realisation that Britain would not
conveniently fall into the position of ally 'alloted' it by Hitler reduced
his concerns about antagonising the British when endorsing Japan's
aggression in Asia." (p. 136)

As Leitz notes, even after 1938 German-Chinese relations--even military
relations--did not completely cease. For example, arms shipments were
gradually curtailed after November 1937, but not stopped entirely: "For a
time, and against Ribbentrop's express wishes, Goering remained clearly
too keen to let the lucrative war material trade with China expire. When
Goering finally ordered the cessation of arms exports to China in April
1938, contracts concluded prior to August 1937 were exempted...As late as
15 October 1939 Goering indirectly acknowledged that such exports had not
yet ceased when he told Sven Hedin that 'we are not at all interested in
the China of Chiang Kai-shek. We have furnished it with war materiel but
are now going to stop these supplies.'" (p. 135) Furthermore, Germany did
not break all diplomatic relations with Chiang's government until 2 July
1941. (p. 134)

So Germany did not entirely eliminate relatons with China, but there is no
doubt that from 1938 on her basic orientation was toward Japan, and in
view of the disparity in power between Japan and China, it is hard for me
to see Hitler deciding otherwise, even without Ribbentrop. The only POD
would be a much stronger China and weaker Japan, and that is not something
which German policy in the 1930's would be able to bring about.

https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/_Z3OwsIoZLo/7HqJW2WqvSMJ
 
if you unpack the idea there are several problems

first geography, Germany has little ability to reach China in peacetime, in wartime China might as well have been on the moon.

they tried the Have Your Cake and Eat It Too to maintain relations with both China and Japan, their hand was forced when China looked like failed state? if they had their way possibly China continued to gather strength they would have been favored ally.

if China does, with German help, defeat Japan, meaning drive them out of China (1937 borders) and (nearly impossible) force them from (then) Manchukuo? they probably still facing civil war (at some level.) it would be impossible for them to join Germany in WWII even IF there was a desire to do so.
 
OK, so we have determined that a Sino-German Axis is not very plausible, but if it somehow did happen, how would Japan React? would they join the Allies, or just fight both the Axis and Allies?
 
Chiang was only interested in using German know-how to defeat the Japanese and the Communists and consolidate his hold over China.

He wasn't interested in becoming a full blown member of the Axis and going to war against the Allies.
 

trurle

Banned
i was wondering how WW2 would be different if the Germans focused on befriending Chaing Kai Shek rather than Hirohito/Tojo. How would this come to be? Would Japan join the Allies? Would Mao be able to establish a Red China?
Befriending any Chinese force was pretty much pointless for Germany. Overall, it would give them little benefits in short term and will be ultimately disastrous for both Germany and China. WWII will end by defeat of Germany as soon as in December 1944, with the help of Japanese expeditionary corps. The China is likely to be invaded and split to Soviet, Japanese and British occupation zones as early as in 1942.
 
The only way to keep German ties with China is if the Sino-Japanese War never happened. That is very doubtful, but if so this is how I see that scenario plays out.

1) China's post-revolutionary government takes form as National Assembly elections occur in the fall 1937 as planned (this was postponed by the war). Chiang officially elected as President of the Republic of China and announces the KMT's "tutelage" period is over. In practice, nothing changes but Chiang achieves an important milestone and legitimacy.

2) Over the next several years, the CCP's independence ends. No war means the "United Front" they signed during the Xi'an Incident establishes KMT control over them and reduces them to the status of the other non-KMT parties. This will be a slow and gradual process, but time is on Chiang's side in this scenario. By 1938, I think the pressure on the CCP will be too much from them, and they'll have to surrender control of their two field armies (Eighth Route and New Fourth).

3) The economic Three Year Plan begun in 1936 ends in 1938, and a new plan begins in 1939. That second plan is interrupted by the war in Europe. However, completion of the first plan means China achieves a significant improvement in its industry. It becomes self sufficient in several war industries, adds several value added industries to its raw material exports, and creates several key industries to reduce its reliance on foreign imports. Various railroad projects (funded by various international investors) link the country and improve transportation network. China has finally become one market, at least in the traditional middle of the country (east of Lanzhou). To replace the lost trade with Germany, China likely turns to the US to make deals (as the leading non-colonial power) or ironically Japan since Japan needs Chinese raw materials more than the US does.

4) The 60 division plan of the German military advisers is completed. Coastal defenses are erected around the Yangtze, and China has a small fleet of German made submarines. It's air force has Me 109 fighters and Stuka dive bombers.

5) The KMT has become the paramount military force in China by 1939 that none of the warlords or even a coalition of all of them could stop Chiang. One by one, they are going to integrate their regions under the central government. I imagine Guangxi and Shandong happens first followed by Yunnan and Shanxi. The rest of North China, which puts Chiang in potential conflict with Japan, happens afterwards.

6) War in Europe ends any further Sino-German cooperation. Chiang expresses sympathy for Germany, but does not enter the war.

7) German conquest of France gives Chiang the opportunity to end the French concessions in China proper. He probably also uses the opportunity to negotiate many of the same things from Britain eliminating most of the colonial concessions given. Only Japan's remains.

8) Germany likely does not involve China or Japan into the initial plans for Barbarossa, but after the invasion begins diplomatic efforts to do so. At the very least, the potential of Japanese and/or Chinese military on the Soviet border would keep many Soviet divisions away from the battlefield. Given the logistical problems of any Chinese offensive into the Soviet Union, I don't think Chiang will declare war. He probably will take the opportunity to negotiate a deal with Stalin that sees them withdraw their influence from Xinjiang and surrender Outer Mongolia back to China. Not sure what Japan will do. Without a war in China, I think they likely take the plunge and invade the Soviet Far East and prevent any US lend lease supplies through Vladivostok.

9) Assuming the US enters the war, by 1943-1944 the Allied victory becomes foreseeable and China begins its orientation away from Germany and to cooperate with the Allies. If the Allies are at war with Japan, this presents a great opportunity for China to regain Manchuria. I imagine China enters the war and joins the Allies by 1945.

10) WWII ends with China regaining Manchuria by arms, installing Kim Gu's provisional government in exile in Korea as Chinese troops occupy the peninsula. It gets Taiwan back in the peace treaty. If French Indochina ever ends up being occupied by Japan, then Chinese armies will occupy the whole colony in the last year of the war. Non-Communist Vietnamese nationalists take over with Ho Chi Minh and the Communists being a minority part of the government.

I don't see this as helping the Germans much at all except ironically that it frees up Japan to block the Vladivostok lend lease route since there is no Sino-Japanese War. The big winner is China who comes out of the war with a somewhat dubious reputation, but still better placed thanks to its last year declaration of war against Japan. Diplomatic events, particularly in what Japan does, is a randomizing part that may see a different outcome.
 
Germany did have links with China...

...Despite Tsingtao, or because Japan never gave it back to China. I explored this in my next book and found it... Interesting, in the Chinese manner...

...Chiang and Mao were essentially competing warlords, in a three cornered fight with Japan. My favourite candidate for Chinese President is actually Marshal Yan Xishan of Shanxi, a capable man and a reformer, respected even by the Japanese as a man who kept his word.
Oh yeah - Yan was awesome. He was a backer of the Chinese United Front, and was essential in the fight against Japan.
 
There are two ways for Germany to have overland access to China.

1. Stay on good terms with the U.S.S.R. Not going to happen.

2. Follow Alfred Rosenberg's suggestion of a Reichskommissariat Turkestan. By the time this could have been realized--if it could have been realized--Chiang would likely have lost China.
 
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