After 1938, the Thai government was strongly anti-western and anti-French, so might the apparent political distance between Bangkok and the West encourage an Italian effort? If Ethiopia was the last uncolonized country in Africa, they might decide Thailand is a good candidate for a similar ‘success.’ Japan might become Thailand’s ‘protector’ in this case.
The DEI are the other possibility that looks less implausible. The Dutch, being separated from Italy in Europe, have less ability to threaten the metropole if things go badly, and conceivably Italy could work a deal with Japan to partition the DEI. Italy in this case brings some more ships and men to the table. But would the British and French guarantee Dutch colonies in the Far East without a general European war?
