Reformist GDR?

So as I am playing Ostalgie: the Berlin Wall, a thought came to me. What if East Germany went reformist?

Whom would be the most Successful at doing this? The game suggests that Egon Krenz is the main reformer candidate, but was he actually the one who had the best shot at doing so?

What sort of impacts both internally and externally would happen? How would the whole unification efforts be altered with a more reformist?

Related to this, would a stronger reformist east germany be able to change the outcome of the 1990 election? specifically if the SED/PDS won those elections?
 
Most successful might have been Hans Modrow, but the main point would be: When would this ATL GDR start to go reformist? 1989 is way too late. 1986 (when the perestroika began) would provide enough butterflies to significantly alter the 1990 election, but would most likely not change the fact that the days of the GDR were over. And going reformist before Gorbachev would be tricky if not even a dangerous path.

I'd say we would need a PoD with the Prague Spring in 1968 to remain at least somewhat successful to keep reformist socialist regimes in power and entice others to imitate them.
 
An SED election victory in 1990 would probably help East Germany's position in negotiations. Maybe make the merge between the FRG and DDR be over years instead of as soon as possible.
 
West Germany has a much easier time subsidizing the East, and the East has a much easier time catching up after reunification so there be far greater equality. Demographics are also much better.
 

Anchises

Banned
Most successful might have been Hans Modrow, but the main point would be: When would this ATL GDR start to go reformist? 1989 is way too late. 1986 (when the perestroika began) would provide enough butterflies to significantly alter the 1990 election, but would most likely not change the fact that the days of the GDR were over. And going reformist before Gorbachev would be tricky if not even a dangerous path.

I'd say we would need a PoD with the Prague Spring in 1968 to remain at least somewhat successful to keep reformist socialist regimes in power and entice others to imitate them.

I think even 1968 might not work.

If we have a reformist government early on I doubt that we would see the Wall or the totalitarianism that allowed the emergence of a distinct Eastern German identity. We might see reunification on more equal terms but I doubt that the two Germanies would be separated permanently.

If we have the Wall and the totalitarian system than there is no way that Eastern Germany is attractive enough socially or economically. West German money and culture is going to be way to attractive.

The best way to explore a reformist GDR is either a changed West Germany (Morgenthaue'd or old fascists take over) or a TL where the former occupation powers prevent reunification.
 
I’m not sure anything would really change. East Germany will still end up integrated into the West I imagine, even if it was reformist.

IMO almost certainly at least if the soviets still collapse, if they sthough the exact nature of reunification could be altered perhaps a slower reunification or better transition period. Since IIRC when German Reunification happened the rapid privitization in the GDR by the german government harmed the economy of those states.

Most successful might have been Hans Modrow, but the main point would be: When would this ATL GDR start to go reformist? 1989 is way too late. 1986 (when the perestroika began) would provide enough butterflies to significantly alter the 1990 election, but would most likely not change the fact that the days of the GDR were over. And going reformist before Gorbachev would be tricky if not even a dangerous path.

I'd say we would need a PoD with the Prague Spring in 1968 to remain at least somewhat successful to keep reformist socialist regimes in power and entice others to imitate them.
originally I was imagining that this would happen during the same time that Perestroika began in the soviet union. However the Prague Spring PoD makes me wonder how that could play out differently. Since this is just a few years since the wall went up.

I think even 1968 might not work.

If we have a reformist government early on I doubt that we would see the Wall or the totalitarianism that allowed the emergence of a distinct Eastern German identity. We might see reunification on more equal terms but I doubt that the two Germanies would be separated permanently.

If we have the Wall and the totalitarian system than there is no way that Eastern Germany is attractive enough socially or economically. West German money and culture is going to be way to attractive.

The best way to explore a reformist GDR is either a changed West Germany (Morgenthaue'd or old fascists take over) or a TL where the former occupation powers prevent reunification.

well it would need to be Totalitarian for Reformism to exist, no ;) Besides as mentioned above, once the soviets leave reunification was going to happen. However, the bigger question about reunification would be how is reunifcation handled, and what this means for the eastern part of Germany today IMO.
 
I think even 1968 might not work.

Yes, it might not work and the chances are low, it's rather that I meant that 1968 is about the latest starting point for a reformist GDR to be able to survive with just the right PoDs.

Given the 'Ostalgie' that nowadays occurs and the still strong support for the Linke, I'd say that a GDR that would have mellowed out to some degree for ~20 years could have gotten enough internal support to live on.


If we have a reformist government early on I doubt that we would see the Wall or the totalitarianism that allowed the emergence of a distinct Eastern German identity.

Problem was, the OTL East German identity was a non-identity trying to combine just too many paradoxes that vanished probably even faster than the GDR itself.

Of course the extremely tricky thing is developing a viable separate GDR identity, which a PoD in 1986 is too late for, but one in 1968 might, just might do the trick.
 
I can't really buy into the idea of a separate GDR identity.

The biggest issue is division of Germany after World War 2 is a purely political and artificial one, not base in any cultural, or historical background.

The general idea of a one Germany was never removed, and the idea of reunited Germany was always a very popular idea.

Once the USSR goes under, or does not do anything, and the Wall comes down, German reunification is a unstoppable wave.
 
The major problem, as others have noted, is that however better this alt-East Germany may do West Germany is bound to do much better. It did not matter that East Germany was probably the wealthiest country in the Soviet bloc when West Germany was far wealthier, and more liberal and enticing in the bargain. Even if East Germany somehow becomes as relatively open and liberal as Yugoslavia--probably a best case insofar as a Communist country can go--it is still going to lag. West Germany, somehow, needs to be much worse for East Germany to be able to have any lead.
 
Something like that: you're a 20 or 30-yrs old in East Berlin, November 1989, without major perspectives and, for all your life, confined into a small Communist Republic surrounded by other countries where the situation is only worst than yours. Your teenagers years were spent hearing clandestine TV and radio broadcasts from a western country, very similar to yours, where everything was much more interesting and funny.

Suddenly all borders are open, the western country is reachable at a your doorstep, you receive 100 DMs just as gift and real jobs are waiting for you. Additionally, such western country is like yours, but cleaner, richer, free....why wait another 20 years for things to improve at your small grey apartment in East Berlin?

The German partition was an artificial one....once freedom of movement is allowed between East and West, GDR was doomed to fall fast....
 
The best way to explore a reformist GDR is either a changed West Germany (Morgenthaue'd or old fascists take over) or a TL where the former occupation powers prevent reunification.

Once the Soviets started to crumble, Germany was going to reunify. I mean what was Thatcher going to do, order the BAOR to start a war against a nominal ally in a sneak attack, against a force that outnumbers hers, and is guaranteed to make the US VERY Angry?
 

Deleted member 97083

I can't really buy into the idea of a separate GDR identity.

The biggest issue is division of Germany after World War 2 is a purely political and artificial one, not base in any cultural, or historical background.

The general idea of a one Germany was never removed, and the idea of reunited Germany was always a very popular idea.

Once the USSR goes under, or does not do anything, and the Wall comes down, German reunification is a unstoppable wave.
If the division lasted 100 years (somehow) it may have solidified into a separate west and east German culture.
 
What about a 1945 (or 43?) POD with a division between North and South Germany? And then, South Germany could get taken over by fascists and/or Catholic fanatics, and a reformist North Germany can survive?
At least, there are some cultural differences between North and South Germany (esp. if this South Germany only includes Baden-Württemberg and Bavaria)
 
The major problem, as others have noted, is that however better this alt-East Germany may do West Germany is bound to do much better. It did not matter that East Germany was probably the wealthiest country in the Soviet bloc when West Germany was far wealthier, and more liberal and enticing in the bargain. Even if East Germany somehow becomes as relatively open and liberal as Yugoslavia--probably a best case insofar as a Communist country can go--it is still going to lag. West Germany, somehow, needs to be much worse for East Germany to be able to have any lead.

Then how about changing West Germany? Not necessarily making it worse off (to get it worse than the GDR is plain ASB unless some brainfart makes the Western allies execute the Morgenthau Plan in their occupation zones and even then it might still be better off) but how about making the average FRG citizen not wanting the reunification?

Adenauer was actually quite happy governing his West Germany and leaving East Germany to its own fate, it was mainly to sucker up to the conservative voters that they kept the rhetorics about a unified Germany (which wouldn't happpen anytime soon, so they could easily make grand speeches about it).

Get them to drop the issue of reunification as early as possible (maybe the Allied Kommandatura tells them to put a lid on it), have the FRG diplomatically recognizing the GDR as a separate sovereign nation (which they never did OTL) and have them stop their policy that every GDR citizen that flees to the FRG gains citizenship immediately and instead treat them like regular asylum seekers.
Add to that some weariness about what the reunification might cost (maybe the reintegration of the Saar in 1955 went a bit awry and now imagine the GDR with 30times as much population and you have to foot the bill)

All in all have it so that when the Iron Curtain finally falls we have in West Germany a majority that while maybe not completely opposed to reunification but insists on reaching economic parity (or at least lessen the gap significantly) before any political union is attempted, which will take decades to achieve.
And by then the urge for reunification might or might not have gone.
 
Adenauer was actually quite happy governing his West Germany and leaving East Germany to its own fate, it was mainly to sucker up to the conservative voters that they kept the rhetorics about a unified Germany (which wouldn't happpen anytime soon, so they could easily make grand speeches about it).

Get them to drop the issue of reunification as early as possible (maybe the Allied Kommandatura tells them to put a lid on it), have the FRG diplomatically recognizing the GDR as a separate sovereign nation (which they never did OTL) and have them stop their policy that every GDR citizen that flees to the FRG gains citizenship immediately and instead treat them like regular asylum seekers.
Add to that some weariness about what the reunification might cost (maybe the reintegration of the Saar in 1955 went a bit awry and now imagine the GDR with 30times as much population and you have to foot the bill)

The problem with this strategy is that getting a perception of East Germans as foreigners to the Federal Republic of Germany is not going to work. East Germany has much less of a history of separation from the rest of Germany than, say, Austria; East Germany was relatively artificial.

I also do not see West Germany dropping a policy of giving automatic citizenship to East Germans, because this would almost inevitably have to entail an abandonment of the wider population of Germans on the east side of the Iron Curtain. If nothing else, where will West Germany get new workers from?

As for cost, I'm not sure. As long as you have an East Germany that looks to be relatively successful, even a marginal member of the high-income club, I would be willing to bet that the assumption would be that reunification could be managed quickly. If you make things in East Germany as relatively bad as in North Korea, sure, you could get West Germans reluctant to take on the territory. How could they get that bad, though?
 
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