REDUX: Place In The Sun: What If Italy Joined The Central Powers?

A fun concept, yes- obviously part of 1.0- but more rooted in fun than plausibility.
Did Kaiserreich have such a conflict?
Technically yes in-game. I wanna say a Totalist or National Populist Mexico could take advantage of the Second American Civil War to reclaim the Mexican Cession & Gadsden Purchase territories. Though I may be misremembering, I haven't played a Totalist or NatPop Mexico to make sure if I'm speaking accurately.

Only difference is, it didn't happen while WWI was going on.
 
Last edited:
I can actually see a 2nd Mexican-American war pretty easily in a CP victory world without even a hint of Zimmerman.

The US was mostly able to stay out of Euro great power games until WWI. This was massively profitable for the US because it was able to maintain a seriously small military for its size. However if Germany becomes the hegemon of Europe, which it will if it's allowed to digest a fair bit of Eastern Europe and perhaps a little of the Low Countries, the US's basic algorithm will need to change. The US's basic algorithm from independence till WW1 was to gradually pick off any Euro powers or open doors to Euro powers in the Western Hemisphere. When it could, it'd buy they out. When it couldn't, it'd provoke a war. The most recent one was the Spanish-American war, which resulted in a substantial reduction in Spanish power in the Western Hemisphere. If the US sees its position threatened by a united Euro hegemon, it is probably going to become quite a bit more aggressive in occupying the Americas, if only to prevent them from allying with another great power. That means stuff like actually trying to digest Cuba and going back for another bite of the apple on Mexico, especially the thinly inhabited parts with mineral resources. It probably won't eye Canada too hard, unless the UK looks to be too weakened. It's interests would lie with trying to prop up the UK while it does its operation to secure the Western hemisphere.
This is all true (and well argued) though there’s an even easier path - you just need the 1916 spat between the Us and Mexico to go wrong. It wouldn’t have taken much, the two countries were already prettt close to war
 
This is all true (and well argued) though there’s an even easier path - you just need the 1916 spat between the Us and Mexico to go wrong. It wouldn’t have taken much, the two countries were already prettt close to war
As you say, pretext for war isn't and wasn't hard to come by, if you're interested in war as the US player. If it was clear in 1916 that Germany was going to be the hegemon of Europe, the US probably would've used that pretext effectively. The US TFR around then was not too far off of 4 which would be more than sufficient to digest the thinly populated areas of Mexico. It's nowhere near high enough to digest the densely populated areas of Mexico unless the US went full Nazi, which is unlikely.
 
As you say, pretext for war isn't and wasn't hard to come by, if you're interested in war as the US player. If it was clear in 1916 that Germany was going to be the hegemon of Europe, the US probably would've used that pretext effectively. The US TFR around then was not too far off of 4 which would be more than sufficient to digest the thinly populated areas of Mexico. It's nowhere near high enough to digest the densely populated areas of Mexico unless the US went full Nazi, which is unlikely.
I’m not even sure the US would have wanted more empty Sonoran Desert, I think the goal in a 1916 2nd Mex-Am war would just be to slap Carranza around and show him who’s boss and install a pliable new President and “ending” the Mexican Revolution
 
I’m not even sure the US would have wanted more empty Sonoran Desert, I think the goal in a 1916 2nd Mex-Am war would just be to slap Carranza around and show him who’s boss and install a pliable new President and “ending” the Mexican Revolution
The US likes big empty wastelands, especially if they might later be discovered to have mineral resources or oil. Likely the US player's move is to take most of Northern Mexico and Baja and fragment Mexico into several nations that are more the scale of the various other Central American nations. Mexico is actually a potential near peer power looked at from the perspective of 1910s US player. There are plenty of natural fracture lines in Mexico that would make this a fairly doable proposition. Remember US player wants no other nations in the Americas that are even vaguely future potential near peers. It could be fairly lax OTL but having a hegemon in Europe makes the game way more hardcore. I'm guessing Japan will be thinking similarly. The smart thing for the Japanese player in this circumstance would be to come to an accommodation with the American player to split the Pacific into spheres of influence between them, possibly also getting agreement with the UK player. That might actually be considerably easier than OTL because the US player won't be able to plausibly claim to be 'holier than thou'.
 
... just wonder ... why everybody talks only about the desert provinces, Baia California, Sonora, Chihuahua, Coahuila ...
IMHO the Gulf coast provinces Tamaulipas, Veracruz with their juicy oil regions and backwaters might be rather worth some ... efforts.
 
... just wonder ... why everybody talks only about the desert provinces, Baia California, Sonora, Chihuahua, Coahuila ...
IMHO the Gulf coast provinces Tamaulipas, Veracruz with their juicy oil regions and backwaters might be rather worth some ... efforts.
They wouldn't be contiguous with the rest of the US is the main reason. Although if the US goes the route of fully digesting the Caribbean I suppose that might be less of a consideration.
 
They wouldn't be contiguous with the rest of the US is the main reason. Although if the US goes the route of fully digesting the Caribbean I suppose that might be less of a consideration.
???
... "simply" southernly extended Texasß
... there's your continuation of US territory.
 
... just wonder ... why everybody talks only about the desert provinces, Baia California, Sonora, Chihuahua, Coahuila ...
IMHO the Gulf coast provinces Tamaulipas, Veracruz with their juicy oil regions and backwaters might be rather worth some ... efforts.
I agree with you.
Far better to establish a 'protectorate' over Veracruz and Tampico and get a 99-year lease on the oil fields there, than to annex yet more desert.
 
???
... "simply" southernly extended Texasß
... there's your continuation of US territory.
The Gulf coastal provinces like Tamaulipas, Veracruz etc wouldn't be contiguous with Texas unless you also absorbed most of the heavily populated regions of Mexico, which the US probably wouldn't want to do even in its Germany hegemon in Europe configuration. However, if it was also absorbing Cuba and the rest of the Caribbean it might. OTL the US didn't have to be quite so hardcore in absorbing any place that the Euro hegemon might get a foothold.
 
I think in this situation the US might do both, in addition to separating Mexico into multiple nations.
Nah, the US is hypocritical in its foreign policy, but not so much that they'll escalate to European levels of open imperialism. The US Army was rather pathetic pre-WW1 mobilization, and judging from their reaction to Pancho Villa's raids into US territory(!) IOTL, escalation will be a hard sell. The American public is already pretty dovish (even the "splendid little" Spanish-American War was extremely controversial), and Mexico is a massive, mountainous, jungle-laden territory that would be much more easily administered with a US-friendly dictator than directly annexed. After all, the US hardly wants the mess from the Mexican government crisis to get in their own house. Also, even from a self-determinative, Wilsonian, perspective, where would a balkanized state go? I doubt that the country that just ended their Indian Wars would want to re-open old wounds by establishing a Mayan sovereign state.
 
Last edited:
Nah, the US is hypocritical in its foreign policy, but not so much that they'll escalate to European levels of open imperialism. The US Army was rather pathetic pre-WW1 mobilization, and judging from their reaction to Pancho Villa's raids into US territory(!) IOTL, escalation will be a hard sell. The American public is already pretty dovish (even the "splendid little" Spanish-American War was extremely controversial), and Mexico is a massive, mountainous, jungle-laden territory that would be much more easily administered with a US-friendly dictator than directly annexed. After all, the US hardly wants the mess from the Mexican government crisis to get in their own house. Also, even from a self-determinative, Wilsonian, perspective, where would a balkanized state go? I doubt that the country that just ended their Indian Wars would want to re-open old wounds by establishing a Mayan sovereign state.
The US would have to revise its foreign policy if faced with Europe with a Hegemon. That's my central thesis. It could afford hypocrisy in OTL reducing its effectiveness in applying the fundamental algorithm of US foreign policy, but it won't be able to afford as much hypocrisy in that TL. It'll have to convincingly dominate the Western hemisphere, which would require that Mexico be shorn of its thinly populated areas and then split into multiple nations. Otherwise it will be facing a Euro hegemon that can afford to outbuild the UK in naval power, which has always been the UK's fear (their fundamental algorithm was to prevent a Euro hegemon also).

It's true that the American public doesn't like warfare, so it'll have to have consent manufactured for it a little earlier in US history than OTL. The first step would be a more aggressive miniwar in Mexica in the 1910s timeframe, where the OTL punitive expeditions get hitched to conquering and absorbing more of Northern Mexico. The 2nd step would be a US 'settlement' of Mexican internal civil wars by means of breaking up the nation of Mexico, probably coupled with taking some of the Gulf states for itself.
 
The US would have to revise its foreign policy if faced with Europe with a Hegemon. That's my central thesis. It could afford hypocrisy in OTL reducing its effectiveness in applying the fundamental algorithm of US foreign policy, but it won't be able to afford as much hypocrisy in that TL. It'll have to convincingly dominate the Western hemisphere, which would require that Mexico be shorn of its thinly populated areas and then split into multiple nations. Otherwise it will be facing a Euro hegemon that can afford to outbuild the UK in naval power, which has always been the UK's fear (their fundamental algorithm was to prevent a Euro hegemon also).

It's true that the American public doesn't like warfare, so it'll have to have consent manufactured for it a little earlier in US history than OTL. The first step would be a more aggressive miniwar in Mexica in the 1910s timeframe, where the OTL punitive expeditions get hitched to conquering and absorbing more of Northern Mexico. The 2nd step would be a US 'settlement' of Mexican internal civil wars by means of breaking up the nation of Mexico, probably coupled with taking some of the Gulf states for itself.
Wouldn't this make the other central and south american States more inclined to seek partnership with said european hegemon? Their populations ould end up rating the US even more, to the point that US backed dictators couldn't hold power.
 
Wouldn't this make the other central and south american States more inclined to seek partnership with said european hegemon? Their populations ould end up rating the US even more, to the point that US backed dictators couldn't hold power.
Most of the other Central/South American countries aren't as much of a worry as Mexico. Mexico could've been a low ranked Great power by the 1930s (like, say, Italy) if it'd avoided the chaos of the 1900-1930 period. A ruthless US player made so by the worry of Euro Hegemon isn't going to worry too much about the little countries. Mexico OTOH is a viable staging location for a Euro hegemon to invade the US eventually. Americans are going to be annoyed at having to pay higher taxes to support a real Great Power navy and Army, but they can afford it, especially if they cut deals with the UK and Japan.
 
Most of the other Central/South American countries aren't as much of a worry as Mexico. Mexico could've been a low ranked Great power by the 1930s (like, say, Italy) if it'd avoided the chaos of the 1900-1930 period. A ruthless US player made so by the worry of Euro Hegemon isn't going to worry too much about the little countries. Mexico OTOH is a viable staging location for a Euro hegemon to invade the US eventually. Americans are going to be annoyed at having to pay higher taxes to support a real Great Power navy and Army, but they can afford it, especially if they cut deals with the UK and Japan.
I think you overestimate the importance of a Euro hegemon, as well as the level of hegemony that Germany is taking here. The Kaiserreich will be just as tattered after the war as Britain is, and the Royal Navy will still be more powerful than the Kaiserliche Marine. While the pound is in danger of collapse like in Place in the Sun 1.0, that's less an opportunity for Germany than one for the US, which despite its comparatively small military was quite the economic superpower even then. In addition, Wilhelm will have to deal with the inevitable French, Russian, and Danubian conflagrations post-war. There will be little attention on the Western Hemisphere, especially since the Monroe Doctrine is even more secure now that Europe's nations have effectively shot themselves in both feet. If anything, US intervention will be in the form of financial investment in Europe, as Britain is no longer in any position to pretend to be a counterweight in Central and South America. Now, I could be wrong (Germany sending arms to their Mexican warlord of choice would feel very in-character), but I don't think we'll be seeing any US interventions beyond the OTL gunship diplomacy around Veracruz and possibly Tamaulipas, as well as a possible expeditionary force to murk Pancho Villa.
 
Last edited:
I think you overestimate the importance of a Euro hegemon, as well as the level of hegemony that Germany is taking here. The Kaiserreich will be just as tattered after the war as Britain is, and the Royal Navy will still be more powerful than the Kaiserliche Marine. While the pound is in danger of collapse like in Place in the Sun 1.0, that's less an opportunity for Germany than one for the US, which despite its comparatively small military was quite the economic superpower even then. In addition, Wilhelm will have to deal with the inevitable French, Russian, and Danubian conflagrations post-war. There will be little attention on the Western Hemisphere, especially since the Monroe Doctrine is even more secure now that Europe's nations have effectively shot themselves in both feet. If anything, US intervention will be in the form of financial investment in Europe, as Britain is no longer in any position to pretend to be a counterweight in Central and South America. Now, I could be wrong (Germany sending arms to their Mexican warlord of choice would feel very in-character), but I don't think we'll be seeing any US interventions beyond the OTL gunship diplomacy around Veracruz and possibly Tamaulipas, as well as a possible expeditionary force to murk Pancho Villa.
The threat isn't an immediate one, it's on the order of 20 years or so. Greater Germany at 1936 would be an obscene powerhouse assuming the war ended in 1916/1917.
That's what both the UK and the US have always worried about---for the UK it's more immediate, for the US it means an end to the 'holiday from history' that the US enjoyed OTL until WW2 with a brief interruption in WW1.
 
Top