REDUX: Place In The Sun: What If Italy Joined The Central Powers?

"Who knew attacking a mountain position could be so hard?" - Cadorna and Joffre, probably.
Either way, excellent work writing this. Really shows the hardship, futility, and just plain grossness of war.
Thanks. I worried that I wouldn't get the tension and emotions of the combat scene right-- glad to know I've done okay.
The only point of attention is that Robilant OTL is the general even more than Cappello and Badoglio, more independent and less obeying the indications of Cadorna: for example, he used to use the orders of the Supreme Command to ignite the cigars. This is because, due to his bonds of friendship with the King, Cadorna could not drive him out. As proof of his acting on his own terms, following the breakthrough of Caporetto he was ordered by General Luigi Cadorna to retire near Mount Grappa, but Robilant, caring highly, ordered to resist indefinitely, which caused the capture of about 11,500 men, trapped by the forces of Otto von Below. But since Robilant, another since you can keep ITL, was scandalously lucky, when it was decided to give the order to retreat, he took the wrong road,
confusing the Germans and managed to avoid the encirclement ... Fortunately, obeying Cadorna for once, that it is not true that he did not know how to learn from his mistakes (unlike the French and the English, he hastens to reply and better, the tactics of the sturmtruppen with the Arditi), Robilant accepts both to abide by Cosenz's plans (yes, always him, who had a plan just in case) to set up a defensive line on the Piave, and to adopt an elastic defense, thus stopping the German offensive ...
He will definitely be lighting some Supreme Command orders ITTL! That's a great mental image.
Thanks for the information-- this will become helpful in trying to characterise the man. Hopefully he will retain some of that "scandalous luck" here.
Dumb and Dumber: a study on the leadership of the Franco-Italian front in WWI
Dumb yes, but also the result of a lack of good options and functional fixedness. Immensely frustrating for all officers faced with what appears to be an unsolvable problem.
And the subject of the 1994 dramatic war film starring Jim Carrey and Jeff Daniels and directed by, oh hey, Steven Spielberg.
Agreed. Couple the sheer futility of the offensives (something 1917 captured very well-- GREAT movie) with the iconic landscape (something which I think lends itself well to drama) and you have the basis for a great film.

French and Italian cultural perceptions of the war will produce a wealth of literature, memoirs, etc, describing the emotional toll it took on the participants. Much of that will get filmed when the time comes.
For a moment I had the strangest feeling-

Wait, what? Let me have another look at this.

Huh... Must be imagining things.

Now a bit more seriously, am I the only one who is seeing certain parallelisms?
This is a very interesting response- thank you for posting it.

I didn't write this intending Pierre Soilon to be a Hitler copypaste (Jake Featherston was more than enough for me). I intended for Pierre Soilon to be an 'average' soldier- he wants to look after his friends, takes pride in his unit, wants to get back to "Julie", worries about what happens after he dies, etc. Yet you're right- he does come off as someone similar to wartime Hitler in his cynicism, fatalism, and hatred of useless/disinterested officers.

What that says about the Man with the Moustache, I don't know. Food for thought and thanks for bringing it up.

Next two updates will concern stuff in the Balkans. After that we have (provisionally):

-The colonial war: fighting in North Africa, the Senussi Revolt, the Horn of Africa, and good old Paul von Lettow-Vorbeck
-The war at sea, obviously focussing on the Mediterranean
-Italy's attempted amphibious assault on Corsica as per the Cosenz plan
-Something to do with the Italian economy/home front/domestic politics
-Something to do with the Ottoman Empire?

All subject to change and suggestions are actively requested.
-Kaiser Wilhelm the Tenth
 
Thanks. I worried that I wouldn't get the tension and emotions of the combat scene right-- glad to know I've done okay. He will definitely be lighting some Supreme Command orders ITTL! That's a great mental image. Thanks for the information-- this will become helpful in trying to characterise the man. Hopefully he will retain some of that "scandalous luck" here. Dumb yes, but also the result of a lack of good options and functional fixedness. Immensely frustrating for all officers faced with what appears to be an unsolvable problem. Agreed. Couple the sheer futility of the offensives (something 1917 captured very well-- GREAT movie) with the iconic landscape (something which I think lends itself well to drama) and you have the basis for a great film. French and Italian cultural perceptions of the war will produce a wealth of literature, memoirs, etc, describing the emotional toll it took on the participants. Much of that will get filmed when the time comes. This is a very interesting response- thank you for posting it. I didn't write this intending Pierre Soilon to be a Hitler copypaste (Jake Featherston was more than enough for me). I intended for Pierre Soilon to be an 'average' soldier- he wants to look after his friends, takes pride in his unit, wants to get back to "Julie", worries about what happens after he dies, etc. Yet you're right- he does come off as someone similar to wartime Hitler in his cynicism, fatalism, and hatred of useless/disinterested officers. What that says about the Man with the Moustache, I don't know. Food for thought and thanks for bringing it up.

Next two updates will concern stuff in the Balkans. After that we have (provisionally): -The colonial war: fighting in North Africa, the Senussi Revolt, the Horn of Africa, and good old Paul von Lettow-Vorbeck -The war at sea, obviously focussing on the Mediterranean -Italy's attempted amphibious assault on Corsica as per the Cosenz plan -Something to do with the Italian economy/home front/domestic politics -Something to do with the Ottoman Empire? All subject to change and suggestions are actively requested. -Kaiser Wilhelm the Tenth
Covering the Senussis and Italian East Africa - specifically British tomfoolery thereabouts - would fit well within the more Italian-oriented perspective you’ve pursued in the early going of this version of the TL, I think, so I’d definitely encourage a deep dive there
 
Chapter IX- Some Damn Fool Thing In The Balkans

Chapter IX

Some Damn Fool Thing In The Balkans


Peace had always eluded the Balkan Peninusla. Ever since the Slavic invasions of the eighth century it had been a fractured battleground. Various hypotheses have been proposed- the mélange of clashing ethnicities and religions, the scarcity of arable land, and excess nationalism in a region long trapped between foreign Great Powers. Balkan affairs concerned all Great Powers. Russia had protected its "younger brother" Slavic nations as they gained independence from Turkey. As Orthodox Slavs, Serbia, Bulgaria, Romania, and Greece were all meant to enjoy Russian patronage... and support its Great Power interests. Balkan politics had a personal quality to Russia. They could not abandon their Serbian brother in their hour of need!

The Habsburg Monarchy had a long history in the Balkans. Leopold II conquered Hungary in the early 18th Century, yet a preoccupation with its western neighbours precluded further advances. As the Ottoman Empire decayed, Vienna had become accustomed to the border and even viewed the Ottomans as a counterweight against Russia. Stability was the watchword, even if that meant supporting Turkey in 1854 (1) and helping carve it up thirty years later. Occupying and annexing Bosnia-Herzegovina ought to have restored order; instead it opened bitter conflict with nationalist groups. Serbia's 1903 revolution established a ferociously anti-Habsburg regime; Vienna responded by clamping down on nationalism. Serbs and Bosnians, with Belgrade's encouragement, pushed harder for secession, forcing the Habsburgs to double down and perpetuate the cycle. Various solutions had been proposed before the war- Franz Ferdinand's trialism, Conrad von Hotzendorf's calls for war, Emperor Franz Joseph's inaction- yet none had succeeded. Everyone knew something would give- and after Gavrillo Princip pulled the trigger, Vienna had its excuse. The Serbian question would be settled and order would come one way or another!

Having risen from the dead, Serbia was determined not to go back. Defeat at Kosovo in 1389 had led to five centuries of horrific Turkish occupation. Passing their cultural heritage down without any political basis, or hope of acquiring one, had been a Herculean task. At times, Serbia had been an idea more than a nation. Yet the idea mattered enough to inspire five centuries of martyrs against all odds. Columbus discovered America, Europe devolved into religious war, revolutions cut across America and France, Napoleon came and went, Britain and France colonised half the world- and still Serbia survived in hearts and minds. Self-rule came in 1830; full independence in 1878. Extreme nationalism had carried the Serbian identity through Turkish rule; now, it convinced the new nation it could trust no one. Russia was a long way away; Austria sat to the north and Turkey to the south. Fomenting nationalism and solidarity amongst their fellow Slavs was the only way. Government propaganda expressed solidarity with Slavs under Habsburg and Turkish rule, while turning a blind eye to terrorist groups operating on their soil. Yet no one in Belgrade had wanted war with the Austrian giant. Watching and waiting for an opportunity had seemed the safest path.

And then Princip assassinated Franz Ferdinand.

The Serbian government had hoped to talk its way out of the crisis. Privately few were unhappy- always good to see the Habsburgs taken down a peg- but publicly they couldn't afford to associate with this. Yet Austria's ultimatum asked too much. If they turned over key parts of their sovereignty to Vienna, how was that any different from slipping back under the Turks? No one wanted war, but if it was the price for survival they would fight nobly. So began fourteen months of skilled defence. The goal was to let the enemy come to them. Repeated failed offensives across the Danube depleted Habsburg strength while boosting Serbian confidence. Despite occasional shipments across chaotic Albania or neutral Greece, the country had to be self-reliant. Serbia's men fought with a certain nihilism: they could spend another five hundred years under foreign rule if they failed, leaving them with nothing to lose. Every day they held the foe at bay counted.

Italy had watched all this from across the Adriatic. Like Serbia, she had only recently emerged from centuries of Habsburg dominance, and many of her countrymen lived across the border. Nationalism and anti-Austrian sentiment were nearly as strong in Rome as in Belgrade. Italy was also larger and wealthier, while geography provided distance from potential enemies. Strategy was a matter of interest, not of survival, allowing Italy to think and act on a longer-term basis than Serbia. For them, balance was key. Rome disliked and distrusted Austria, and certainly didn't wish to see it extend its reach across the Balkans. Yet an explosion of nationalism would have produced a chaotic power vacuum. Italy retained independent interests- exploiting the civil wars in Albania, controlling the Adriatic fishing trade, and building up its navy. Balance was key. Watching their Austrian ally stumble convinced the Italians that neutrality had been a wise choice.

Having a base across the Adriatic greatly facilitated Italy's position. They had occupied the southern city of Valona and adjacent islands in late 1914 to prevent their falling into Greek hands, and it existed as an enclave in a chaotic sea. Greece's occupation zone lay forty miles south; Albania's civil war raged outside city limits. Refugees streamed towards Vlorë. Foreign soldiers meant stability and, if God was kind, a ticket to a better land. Valona gave Italy control of a 55-mile strait across the Adriatic. With it, they controlled who entered and left. Austria-Hungary had initially objected- Italy could cut them off from the wider Mediterranean, rendering them de facto landlocked- but as relations with the Entente soured Italy offered a compromise. Mine chains and naval patrols cut across the strait, denying the Adriatic to Entente submarines. The area remained safe for Austro-Hungarian shipping until Italy joined the war. Vienna never reconciled itself to the occupation- it left the Adriatic an Italian lake- but ultimately accepted it in the final negotiations before the war. Despite sporadic shelling and mining, Valona would play a key role in the war as a key logistic line, somewhere which attracted much military investment. Albania's post-Civil War government agreed to a 100-year lease in 1918, renewed by King Skanderbeg VI until 2118.

Entering the war allowed Italy to actively defend its Balkan interests. Parliament declared its "responsibility to defend the legitimate, neutral government" two days into the war. Former Ottoman administrator Essad Pasha, after an exile in Italy, had roused the country's Muslim peasants and formed a government at Durrës. (2) His reliance on Italy and need to placate local warlords made him perfect. If Pasha's shaky regime could control all Albania, he would make a perfect Italian client. Salandra had toyed with sending him reinforcements before his downfall, something Sonnino agreed with. During Italy's autumn mobilisation, a fifty-thousand-strong XVI Corps was established in Valona, commanded by Emilio Bertotti. (3) Its official mission was to protect Albania from a Serbian invasion, yet it spent most of its time shooting at Pasha's domestic political foes.

Nearly irrelevant to defeating the Entente, XVI Corps would serve honourably when war came.

Bulgaria, another nation in search of a path, now saw fit to join the Central Powers. Like Serbia, it had just been resurrected from five centuries of Turkish rule. Unlike Serbia, it expressed nationalist sentiment through an openly bellicose foreign policy. Its people hated the Ottoman Empire and resented Serbia and Greece for "betraying" it in the Second Balkan War. (4) Russia had championed its independence and relations remained fair in 1914. Joining the Entente would have meant allying with Serbia against Austria-Hungary, as well as sacrificing valuable German investment. A land war with the Ottoman Empire, while emotionally fulfilling, would have been military suicide. Yet joining the Central Powers would have entailed alignment with the hated Turks; Russophiles opposed betraying St. Petersburg. Yet Bulgarian nationalists coveted Serbian and even Albanian territory. War would ensure revenge against the Serbs and cement Greater Bulgaria. As with Italy, a game of diplomatic tug-of-war was played in Sofia throughout summer 1915. The Entente offer of Thrace and Serbian border cessions was counterbalanced by the promise of all Macedonia. German victories at Gorlice-Tarnow and elsewhere contrasted with Entente failures on the Western Front and at Gallipoli. Prime Minister Vasil Radoslavov fought the same political battles as Salandra and Sonnino, with a similar result. Italy declared war the same day Austria-Hungary attacked Serbia, this time with German help. Bulgaria joined the war two weeks later. (5)

Like a condemned man who has repented, Serbia faced the end with calm. Their men were unafraid of the odds and knew how to punch above their weight. Yet repeated successful defences had killed off most of their prewar army, especially trained officers, and used up irreplaceable supplies. Typhus had further thinned their ranks. Most knew in their bones that they were doomed yet they had to try. Fatalism somehow boosted morale rather than strengthening it. If they could neither win nor escape, survival became irrelevant. All that was left to do was fight with honour. Their ancestors had tried and failed at Kosovo and doomed ther homeland, condemning Serbia to wander through the desert for five centuries. Yet the world remembered their courage, and they had become first martyrs, then legends. That legend had motivated generations of Serbs, who eventually led their homeland to freedom in the nineteenth century. If the process repeated itself, the men knew Serbia would one day be free again. Cognisant that the situation was hopeless, Field Marshal Radomir Putnik urged King Peter to flee to neutral Romania or Greece. Enemy forces would soon seal both borders but if he hurried he could reach Russia or Egypt. King Peter would have liked to save himself and his family but remained with his people. Constantine XI had become a hero across the Balkans through his martyrdom and he would do the same.

Italy's mission in Albania, while officially peaceful, met with nearly as much resistance. XVI Corps received its orders on 11 October- they were to march on Durrës and Tirana to secure a "political settlement with the Prime Minister". Leaving a token garrison in Valona, they marched along the mountain roads. Pasha had ordered the Army and police not to resist, yet tribesmen and peasants paid him no heed. The Prime Minister was a foreigner inviting other foreigners to trod over their country. Peasants hid food and fled to the mountains, forcing the Italians to burn through their rations faster than expected. Though Pasha was a coreligionist, Albanian Muslims hated his regime. That he would use "infidel foreigners" against their homeland came as no surprise, and they gave no quarter. Christians, by contrast, often provided directions and provisions. Local warlords knew they were out of their league against what was a comparatively well-equipped and well-trained force. After a few skirmishes ended disastrously, they left well alone.

When they reached Durrës on 1 November, XVI Corps was distinctly worse for wear. Pasha welcomed them with a banquet and a two-hour speech about what a great service they were rendering his homeland, and how the "Serbian infidels" would never attack them now! The men were too busy stuffing themselves to notice. Meanwhile, crucial diplomacy took place behind closed doors. An Italian diplomatic team met with Pasha at his lavish residence, the former royal palace. Their proposal was simple: XVI Corps would help solidify Pasha's control of the country and train his private army, in exchange for which his regime would join the Central Powers. Pasha didn't have to consider for long. Without Italian asylum in spring 1914, his rivals would have killed him, and he couldn't have rebuilt his regime without Italian support. Foreign soldiers in his country didn't thrill him, but he knew he couldn't evict them. Besides, as soon as the Italians left another rival would make a power bid. Making sure Italy had a stake in his regime was his best chance of survival, and joining the war was the best means to that end. Furthermore, every day brought the Austro-German juggernaut closer. Maintaining relations with the ascendant Central Powers would soon be a matter of survival, something fighting alongside them would secure. Serbian weakness offered the possibility of a territorial grab as well.

Essad Pasha signed a pact with the Italian delegates on 15 November. XVI Corps moved up to the Serbian border, doing its best to construct supply lines back to Valona. Pasha's ramshackle army remained in place: Albania's unruly tribes had no interest in his war, and if his forces were busy in southern Serbia they might attack Durrës and destroy him. Watching foreigners die for his regime while doing nothing more than tax their supply lines was fine by him. The formal declaration of war on 23 November changed little.

The Serbs arrived only a few days later.


  1. Albiet nominally, astonishing the world by their ingratitude.
  2. Essad Pasha Toptani
  3. Italy sent 100,000 men in OTL; the demands of fighting in North Africa and sending an expeditionary force to the Western Front halve that.
  4. Although Bulgaria started the latter conflict.
  5. Many in TTL must imagine a correlation between Italy joining the Central Powers and Bulgaria so doing; OTL proves that's not the case.
Comments?
 
then we head over to Africa
I've been looking forward to this.

proxy-image
 

pls don't ban me

Monthly Donor
Next update will concern the flight of the Serbs, then we head over to Africa
kinda curious to se how they survive this time.
if i'm not mistaken in OTL the Serbian army escaped into Albania and managed to Dunkirk themselves to Corfù
in OTL they had no problem into escaping because Italy and Albania were allies.
this time the Italian fleet is an enemy so... were does he Serbian army flee?
if Greece lets them in is basically a declaration of war.
The Greek army was a complete mess( maybe even worse than the Romanians) in numbers and equipment. Bulgaria will surely abuse to rush and occupy everything they can followed by the persecution and expulsion of every non Bulgarian inhabitant.
 
Greece won't join the war. Venizelos would never countenance fighting alongside the Ottomans...but with Italy honoring its commitments to the Triple Alliance, it's too risky to join the Entente either.

At the very least, I'd see Greece taking a path of strict neutrality, and playing up if not outright exaggerating actions meant to emphasize that. Say...Britain approaches them in secret, offering this and that, only for Greece to publicly kick the envoys, publishing the story about Britain's underhanded actions on every newspaper willing to accept the story, all the while spinning that Greece only did this to uphold international law about neutrality, etc.

Or, like in the first version of this story, predicting disaster if they join the Entente, but unwilling to fight alongside the Ottomans while still seeing a CP victory in the future, Greece cozies up as much as possible to Germany and the Habsburgs while officially staying neutral. This involved disarming and interning (by force, if need be) any Serbs in their borders, as well as handing over King Peter and his family to the Habsburgs. This pisses off the Entente, but the Habsburgs and the Germans are all too happy to guarantee Greece's neutrality, not just against the Entente, but also against the Italians (who want the Dodecanese Islands) and the Ottomans (over Cyprus).
 
Greece won't join the war. Venizelos would never countenance fighting alongside the Ottomans...but with Italy honoring its commitments to the Triple Alliance, it's too risky to join the Entente either.
You're expecting Venizelos to be a rational actor when his pwecious enosis is on the line. I'm not convinced Venizelos would be able to make a smart strategic math decision when he thinks there's even a chance Greece can get their 'rightful' territory.
 
I've been looking forward to this.

proxy-image
Unfortunately I can't see the image in question-- what was it of?
kinda curious to se how they survive this time.
if i'm not mistaken in OTL the Serbian army escaped into Albania and managed to Dunkirk themselves to Corfù
in OTL they had no problem into escaping because Italy and Albania were allies.
this time the Italian fleet is an enemy so... were does he Serbian army flee?
if Greece lets them in is basically a declaration of war.
The Greek army was a complete mess( maybe even worse than the Romanians) in numbers and equipment. Bulgaria will surely abuse to rush and occupy everything they can followed by the persecution and expulsion of every non Bulgarian inhabitant.
Well, a lot fewer of them will be surviving this time.
Without giving too much away I can say they'll have to reach Greece... which will require fighting past a lot more Italians, Albanians, and Bulgarians than OTL.
The political ramifications in Greece will be interesting as it fights to maintain neutrality.
With Italy as part of the Central Powers Lettow-Vorbeck now has a closer base of supplies.
I'm not sure about that. He's separated from Italian East Africa by Kenya, one of Britain's most important East African holdings, and a large number of British troops. Besides- spoiler!- the Horn of Africa will not be Italian for very long!
Greece won't join the war. Venizelos would never countenance fighting alongside the Ottomans...but with Italy honoring its commitments to the Triple Alliance, it's too risky to join the Entente either.

At the very least, I'd see Greece taking a path of strict neutrality, and playing up if not outright exaggerating actions meant to emphasize that. Say...Britain approaches them in secret, offering this and that, only for Greece to publicly kick the envoys, publishing the story about Britain's underhanded actions on every newspaper willing to accept the story, all the while spinning that Greece only did this to uphold international law about neutrality, etc.

Or, like in the first version of this story, predicting disaster if they join the Entente, but unwilling to fight alongside the Ottomans while still seeing a CP victory in the future, Greece cozies up as much as possible to Germany and the Habsburgs while officially staying neutral. This involved disarming and interning (by force, if need be) any Serbs in their borders, as well as handing over King Peter and his family to the Habsburgs. This pisses off the Entente, but the Habsburgs and the Germans are all too happy to guarantee Greece's neutrality, not just against the Entente, but also against the Italians (who want the Dodecanese Islands) and the Ottomans (over Cyprus).
Great analysis-- thanks for taking the time to type it out.

You're correct in that neutrality is basically "the way to go". That said, they will have to maintain working relations with the Entente as well as the Central Powers. OTL proved this; Constantine had to back down after Britain threatened to bombard Athens. There's also the fact that the war will be winding down ITTL by the time Venezelos returned to the mainland, which prompted Greece to join the Entente. Here, Constantine's pro-German regime is in charge as Germany wins its key victories. By the time Venezelos is strong enough to return, the war will be over (or nearly so) and the Entente will have lost interest in supporting the man.
You're expecting Venizelos to be a rational actor when his pwecious enosis is on the line. I'm not convinced Venizelos would be able to make a smart strategic math decision when he thinks there's even a chance Greece can get their 'rightful' territory.
Before Venizelos can do anything, smart or stupid, he'll have to get past King Constantine.
It won't end well.
 
I'm not sure about that. He's separated from Italian East Africa by Kenya, one of Britain's most important East African holdings, and a large number of British troops. Besides- spoiler!- the Horn of Africa will not be Italian for very long!
^ This, Britain (and her Dominions), France and Japan have more forces in the colonies that they could easily take any colonies the CP have, so basically playing out as it did IOTL regardless of Italy's position.
Great analysis-- thanks for taking the time to type it out.

You're correct in that neutrality is basically "the way to go". That said, they will have to maintain working relations with the Entente as well as the Central Powers. OTL proved this; Constantine had to back down after Britain threatened to bombard Athens. There's also the fact that the war will be winding down ITTL by the time Venezelos returned to the mainland, which prompted Greece to join the Entente. Here, Constantine's pro-German regime is in charge as Germany wins its key victories. By the time Venezelos is strong enough to return, the war will be over (or nearly so) and the Entente will have lost interest in supporting the man.

Before Venizelos can do anything, smart or stupid, he'll have to get past King Constantine.
It won't end well.
Not to mention that Italy joining the CP pretty much made the Eastern Mediterranean a de facto CP Lake. (with only Egypt and British Cyprus being the only holdings the Entente have in that general region, not counting Serbia or Montenegro) all things considered, and the stronger position means that unless Venizelos is indeed crazy enough to force Greece into the Entente (already a tall task and one where the Entente, Britain specifically, is neither willing nor able to support the venture and the King is vehemently opposed), that Greece will retain neutral, which is the smart play here.
 
I doubt the British would risk sending ships so close to the Greek mainland to threaten Athens ITTL, especially if much like in OTL the Mittelmeerdivision of the Imperial German Navy managed to get to Constantinople. The threat of the Regia Marina and/or the KuK is bad enough, even if the British have the qualitative advantage, factor in Souchon and the British won't risk an engagement without overwhelming numbers. And they can't get that - before 1917 - without moving ships from the Grand Fleet. At least in terms of capital ships, that is. Britain has plenty of light ships, but I'm not sure if they'd risk an engagement with Goeben and the Italian/Habsburg dreadnoughts with only armored and light cruisers.
 

Chapter IX

Some Damn Fool Thing In The Balkans


Peace had always eluded the Balkan Peninusla. Ever since the Slavic invasions of the eighth century it had been a fractured battleground. Various hypotheses have been proposed- the mélange of clashing ethnicities and religions, the scarcity of arable land, and excess nationalism in a region long trapped between foreign Great Powers. Balkan affairs concerned all Great Powers. Russia had protected its "younger brother" Slavic nations as they gained independence from Turkey. As Orthodox Slavs, Serbia, Bulgaria, Romania, and Greece were all meant to enjoy Russian patronage... and support its Great Power interests. Balkan politics had a personal quality to Russia. They could not abandon their Serbian brother in their hour of need!

The Habsburg Monarchy had a long history in the Balkans. Leopold II conquered Hungary in the early 18th Century, yet a preoccupation with its western neighbours precluded further advances. As the Ottoman Empire decayed, Vienna had become accustomed to the border and even viewed the Ottomans as a counterweight against Russia. Stability was the watchword, even if that meant supporting Turkey in 1854 (1) and helping carve it up thirty years later. Occupying and annexing Bosnia-Herzegovina ought to have restored order; instead it opened bitter conflict with nationalist groups. Serbia's 1903 revolution established a ferociously anti-Habsburg regime; Vienna responded by clamping down on nationalism. Serbs and Bosnians, with Belgrade's encouragement, pushed harder for secession, forcing the Habsburgs to double down and perpetuate the cycle. Various solutions had been proposed before the war- Franz Ferdinand's trialism, Conrad von Hotzendorf's calls for war, Emperor Franz Joseph's inaction- yet none had succeeded. Everyone knew something would give- and after Gavrillo Princip pulled the trigger, Vienna had its excuse. The Serbian question would be settled and order would come one way or another!

Having risen from the dead, Serbia was determined not to go back. Defeat at Kosovo in 1389 had led to five centuries of horrific Turkish occupation. Passing their cultural heritage down without any political basis, or hope of acquiring one, had been a Herculean task. At times, Serbia had been an idea more than a nation. Yet the idea mattered enough to inspire five centuries of martyrs against all odds. Columbus discovered America, Europe devolved into religious war, revolutions cut across America and France, Napoleon came and went, Britain and France colonised half the world- and still Serbia survived in hearts and minds. Self-rule came in 1830; full independence in 1878. Extreme nationalism had carried the Serbian identity through Turkish rule; now, it convinced the new nation it could trust no one. Russia was a long way away; Austria sat to the north and Turkey to the south. Fomenting nationalism and solidarity amongst their fellow Slavs was the only way. Government propaganda expressed solidarity with Slavs under Habsburg and Turkish rule, while turning a blind eye to terrorist groups operating on their soil. Yet no one in Belgrade had wanted war with the Austrian giant. Watching and waiting for an opportunity had seemed the safest path.

And then Princip assassinated Franz Ferdinand.

The Serbian government had hoped to talk its way out of the crisis. Privately few were unhappy- always good to see the Habsburgs taken down a peg- but publicly they couldn't afford to associate with this. Yet Austria's ultimatum asked too much. If they turned over key parts of their sovereignty to Vienna, how was that any different from slipping back under the Turks? No one wanted war, but if it was the price for survival they would fight nobly. So began fourteen months of skilled defence. The goal was to let the enemy come to them. Repeated failed offensives across the Danube depleted Habsburg strength while boosting Serbian confidence. Despite occasional shipments across chaotic Albania or neutral Greece, the country had to be self-reliant. Serbia's men fought with a certain nihilism: they could spend another five hundred years under foreign rule if they failed, leaving them with nothing to lose. Every day they held the foe at bay counted.

Italy had watched all this from across the Adriatic. Like Serbia, she had only recently emerged from centuries of Habsburg dominance, and many of her countrymen lived across the border. Nationalism and anti-Austrian sentiment were nearly as strong in Rome as in Belgrade. Italy was also larger and wealthier, while geography provided distance from potential enemies. Strategy was a matter of interest, not of survival, allowing Italy to think and act on a longer-term basis than Serbia. For them, balance was key. Rome disliked and distrusted Austria, and certainly didn't wish to see it extend its reach across the Balkans. Yet an explosion of nationalism would have produced a chaotic power vacuum. Italy retained independent interests- exploiting the civil wars in Albania, controlling the Adriatic fishing trade, and building up its navy. Balance was key. Watching their Austrian ally stumble convinced the Italians that neutrality had been a wise choice.

Having a base across the Adriatic greatly facilitated Italy's position. They had occupied the southern city of Valona and adjacent islands in late 1914 to prevent their falling into Greek hands, and it existed as an enclave in a chaotic sea. Greece's occupation zone lay forty miles south; Albania's civil war raged outside city limits. Refugees streamed towards Vlorë. Foreign soldiers meant stability and, if God was kind, a ticket to a better land. Valona gave Italy control of a 55-mile strait across the Adriatic. With it, they controlled who entered and left. Austria-Hungary had initially objected- Italy could cut them off from the wider Mediterranean, rendering them de facto landlocked- but as relations with the Entente soured Italy offered a compromise. Mine chains and naval patrols cut across the strait, denying the Adriatic to Entente submarines. The area remained safe for Austro-Hungarian shipping until Italy joined the war. Vienna never reconciled itself to the occupation- it left the Adriatic an Italian lake- but ultimately accepted it in the final negotiations before the war. Despite sporadic shelling and mining, Valona would play a key role in the war as a key logistic line, somewhere which attracted much military investment. Albania's post-Civil War government agreed to a 100-year lease in 1918, renewed by King Skanderbeg VI until 2118.

Entering the war allowed Italy to actively defend its Balkan interests. Parliament declared its "responsibility to defend the legitimate, neutral government" two days into the war. Former Ottoman administrator Essad Pasha, after an exile in Italy, had roused the country's Muslim peasants and formed a government at Durrës. (2) His reliance on Italy and need to placate local warlords made him perfect. If Pasha's shaky regime could control all Albania, he would make a perfect Italian client. Salandra had toyed with sending him reinforcements before his downfall, something Sonnino agreed with. During Italy's autumn mobilisation, a fifty-thousand-strong XVI Corps was established in Valona, commanded by Emilio Bertotti. (3) Its official mission was to protect Albania from a Serbian invasion, yet it spent most of its time shooting at Pasha's domestic political foes.

Nearly irrelevant to defeating the Entente, XVI Corps would serve honourably when war came.

Bulgaria, another nation in search of a path, now saw fit to join the Central Powers. Like Serbia, it had just been resurrected from five centuries of Turkish rule. Unlike Serbia, it expressed nationalist sentiment through an openly bellicose foreign policy. Its people hated the Ottoman Empire and resented Serbia and Greece for "betraying" it in the Second Balkan War. (4) Russia had championed its independence and relations remained fair in 1914. Joining the Entente would have meant allying with Serbia against Austria-Hungary, as well as sacrificing valuable German investment. A land war with the Ottoman Empire, while emotionally fulfilling, would have been military suicide. Yet joining the Central Powers would have entailed alignment with the hated Turks; Russophiles opposed betraying St. Petersburg. Yet Bulgarian nationalists coveted Serbian and even Albanian territory. War would ensure revenge against the Serbs and cement Greater Bulgaria. As with Italy, a game of diplomatic tug-of-war was played in Sofia throughout summer 1915. The Entente offer of Thrace and Serbian border cessions was counterbalanced by the promise of all Macedonia. German victories at Gorlice-Tarnow and elsewhere contrasted with Entente failures on the Western Front and at Gallipoli. Prime Minister Vasil Radoslavov fought the same political battles as Salandra and Sonnino, with a similar result. Italy declared war the same day Austria-Hungary attacked Serbia, this time with German help. Bulgaria joined the war two weeks later. (5)

Like a condemned man who has repented, Serbia faced the end with calm. Their men were unafraid of the odds and knew how to punch above their weight. Yet repeated successful defences had killed off most of their prewar army, especially trained officers, and used up irreplaceable supplies. Typhus had further thinned their ranks. Most knew in their bones that they were doomed yet they had to try. Fatalism somehow boosted morale rather than strengthening it. If they could neither win nor escape, survival became irrelevant. All that was left to do was fight with honour. Their ancestors had tried and failed at Kosovo and doomed ther homeland, condemning Serbia to wander through the desert for five centuries. Yet the world remembered their courage, and they had become first martyrs, then legends. That legend had motivated generations of Serbs, who eventually led their homeland to freedom in the nineteenth century. If the process repeated itself, the men knew Serbia would one day be free again. Cognisant that the situation was hopeless, Field Marshal Radomir Putnik urged King Peter to flee to neutral Romania or Greece. Enemy forces would soon seal both borders but if he hurried he could reach Russia or Egypt. King Peter would have liked to save himself and his family but remained with his people. Constantine XI had become a hero across the Balkans through his martyrdom and he would do the same.

Italy's mission in Albania, while officially peaceful, met with nearly as much resistance. XVI Corps received its orders on 11 October- they were to march on Durrës and Tirana to secure a "political settlement with the Prime Minister". Leaving a token garrison in Valona, they marched along the mountain roads. Pasha had ordered the Army and police not to resist, yet tribesmen and peasants paid him no heed. The Prime Minister was a foreigner inviting other foreigners to trod over their country. Peasants hid food and fled to the mountains, forcing the Italians to burn through their rations faster than expected. Though Pasha was a coreligionist, Albanian Muslims hated his regime. That he would use "infidel foreigners" against their homeland came as no surprise, and they gave no quarter. Christians, by contrast, often provided directions and provisions. Local warlords knew they were out of their league against what was a comparatively well-equipped and well-trained force. After a few skirmishes ended disastrously, they left well alone.

When they reached Durrës on 1 November, XVI Corps was distinctly worse for wear. Pasha welcomed them with a banquet and a two-hour speech about what a great service they were rendering his homeland, and how the "Serbian infidels" would never attack them now! The men were too busy stuffing themselves to notice. Meanwhile, crucial diplomacy took place behind closed doors. An Italian diplomatic team met with Pasha at his lavish residence, the former royal palace. Their proposal was simple: XVI Corps would help solidify Pasha's control of the country and train his private army, in exchange for which his regime would join the Central Powers. Pasha didn't have to consider for long. Without Italian asylum in spring 1914, his rivals would have killed him, and he couldn't have rebuilt his regime without Italian support. Foreign soldiers in his country didn't thrill him, but he knew he couldn't evict them. Besides, as soon as the Italians left another rival would make a power bid. Making sure Italy had a stake in his regime was his best chance of survival, and joining the war was the best means to that end. Furthermore, every day brought the Austro-German juggernaut closer. Maintaining relations with the ascendant Central Powers would soon be a matter of survival, something fighting alongside them would secure. Serbian weakness offered the possibility of a territorial grab as well.

Essad Pasha signed a pact with the Italian delegates on 15 November. XVI Corps moved up to the Serbian border, doing its best to construct supply lines back to Valona. Pasha's ramshackle army remained in place: Albania's unruly tribes had no interest in his war, and if his forces were busy in southern Serbia they might attack Durrës and destroy him. Watching foreigners die for his regime while doing nothing more than tax their supply lines was fine by him. The formal declaration of war on 23 November changed little.

The Serbs arrived only a few days later.



  1. Albiet nominally, astonishing the world by their ingratitude.
  2. Essad Pasha Toptani
  3. Italy sent 100,000 men in OTL; the demands of fighting in North Africa and sending an expeditionary force to the Western Front halve that.
  4. Although Bulgaria started the latter conflict.
  5. Many in TTL must imagine a correlation between Italy joining the Central Powers and Bulgaria so doing; OTL proves that's not the case.
Comments?


OTL Cadorna was opposed to the military expedition to Albania, since the Supreme Commander considered an idiotic idea which he considered dangerous to advance his troops inside a poor, backward country, without roads and infested with bandits; but the expedition was practically imposed on him both by the allies and by the politicians. The facts proved Cadorna right, but Bertotti, who had remained neutral in the clash between pro Cadornians and anti Cadornians in the Italian General Staff, took it very badly, going so far as to accuse Cadorna of sabotage. After the war, both Bertotti and Cadorna argued for a long time, publishing a series of essays and memorials on the First World War. ITL will relationships be less strained?

ITL, given that Italy and Turkey are allies, will the situation in Libya be calmer? Will the Senussi, in their offensive in Egypt, have Italian support, collecting better results? Will the political agreement of Bīr ‛Ákramah between Italy and Senussia, in this different context, survive, or will it be ditched by the extremists of both parties?

OTL In July 1916 - after a thousand discussions and second thoughts - the Italian Government and the Italian Supreme Command finally agreed to send the 35th Division to Greece, under the orders of General Petitti di Roreto. In reality it was not so much an ordinary division but a very robust special unit made up of 44,000 troops. More specifically, the 35th was formed by two infantry brigades (Sicily and Cagliari) reinforced later by Ivrea), by the 2nd Mountain Artillery Regiment (divided into 8 batteries), by the 1st Cavalry Squadron Lucca and by several departments made up of machine gunners and mortars. It was completed by a half dozen battalions of the sappers and bridges, health, transmission and subsistence. The team was equipped with individual and standard armament: Carcano model '91 muskets with bayonet, hand grenades, pistols (for officers), water-cooled Fiat machine guns, trench bomb launchers, 65 mm mountain guns. and some 75mm campaign pieces. In support of the Expeditionary Corps, the transfer to Thessaloniki of 438 officers, pilots and aeronautics specialists with various squadrons of armed reconnaissance biplanes Farman and S.A.M.L. S1 and S2. On 8 August 1916, the first contingents began to leave from Taranto on board steamers, after all the training for landings in France had not been wasted

The expeditionary force removed the chestnuts from the fire at the Armée d'Orient, in Macedonia ... ITL where will these troops be engaged? And what will the Armée d'Orient do?

P.S other useful material for ucronia

 
OTL Cadorna was opposed to the military expedition to Albania, since the Supreme Commander considered an idiotic idea which he considered dangerous to advance his troops inside a poor, backward country, without roads and infested with bandits; but the expedition was practically imposed on him both by the allies and by the politicians. The facts proved Cadorna right, but Bertotti, who had remained neutral in the clash between pro Cadornians and anti Cadornians in the Italian General Staff, took it very badly, going so far as to accuse Cadorna of sabotage. After the war, both Bertotti and Cadorna argued for a long time, publishing a series of essays and memorials on the First World War. ITL will relationships be less strained?
Well Cadorna was opposed at any use of the italian soldiers that was not: put them directly against A-H in the Isonzo front...even if with a little hindsight, more than tons of offensive there, the soldiers will have been much more usefull in the Macedonian and Sinai front.
But speaking of the expeditionary force in Albania, well the zone is too strategically important and with too many party interested to not send anyone because the Generallisimo don't care of that front as OTL you will need foot on the ground to realistically press your claim, so troops will need to be sent regardless of the terrain.

The Senussi relationship with Turkey was...well they used each other and the first wanted to be independent even from the Porte, so French and/or British can be tempted to supply them with some weapon or/and give them some safe zone where enstablish bases
 
Well Cadorna was opposed at any use of the italian soldiers that was not: put them directly against A-H in the Isonzo front...even if with a little hindsight, more than tons of offensive there, the soldiers will have been much more usefull in the Macedonian and Sinai front.
But speaking of the expeditionary force in Albania, well the zone is too strategically important and with too many party interested to not send anyone because the Generallisimo don't care of that front as OTL you will need foot on the ground to realistically press your claim, so troops will need to be sent regardless of the terrain.

The Senussi relationship with Turkey was...well they used each other and the first wanted to be independent even from the Porte, so French and/or British can be tempted to supply them with some weapon or/and give them some safe zone where enstablish bases

In reality, it is not so .... Cadorna, since the government hesitated to start the expedition to Macedonia, threatened to resign (in addition to his memorials, we also have those of Vittorio Orlando and Sonnino). In addition, he supported an expedition in support of the British in Sinai, and to resume military relations with Sheikh Asir Sa'id Idris, who led the Yemeni rebellion against the Turks, who had been on the side of the Italians in 1911 and of organize a landing either in Alexandretta or in the Dalaman area, in an attempt to hasten the Turkish collapse. He was opposed to an intervention in Libya, simply because he had many doubts as to whether the training and equipment of the Royal Army was suitable for that operational scenario. Who forced the Isonzo was Rome, for economic and political reasons, and the Anglo-French Command, which believed, in a global key, also to support Russia, to bleed Austria-Hungary on the Isonzo ... On the Senussi, it was the advance French from the basin of Lake Ciād and the Wadāi to endanger the extreme south of Senussis and paralyze the slave trade and the smuggling of arms, which constituted the main economic income of the Brotherhood; furthermore, the Anglo-Egyptians strove to widen their western border more and more. Precisely these two events, in the summer of 1909, led Aḥmad ash-Sharīf to recognize the high Ottoman sovereignty and to let a caimacamate be nominally established in Cufra, which should have been dependent on the Benghazi mutaṣarrifat. Therefore, a change of alliance in progress, unless unlikely events, seems to me impracticable
 

pls don't ban me

Monthly Donor
Unfortunately I can't see the image in question-- what was it of?

Well, a lot fewer of them will be surviving this time.
Without giving too much away I can say they'll have to reach Greece... which will require fighting past a lot more Italians, Albanians, and Bulgarians than OTL.
The political ramifications in Greece will be interesting as it fights to maintain neutrality.


Great analysis-- thanks for taking the time to type it out.

You're correct in that neutrality is basically "the way to go". That said, they will have to maintain working relations with the Entente as well as the Central Powers. OTL proved this; Constantine had to back down after Britain threatened to bombard Athens. There's also the fact that the war will be winding down ITTL by the time Venezelos returned to the mainland, which prompted Greece to join the Entente. Here, Constantine's pro-German regime is in charge as Germany wins its key victories. By the time Venezelos is strong enough to return, the war will be over (or nearly so) and the Entente will have lost interest in supporting the man.
IF the Serbian army enters Greece to save their asses the neutrality ends.
there's no way Germany or Bulgaria will accept that. remember that Germany didn't even consider to not invade Belgium.
Greece is a lot more weaker.
if i remember well during the Balkan war Greece had the second smallest army after Montenegro. something like 150K troops. badly equipped.
Bulgaria and Albania would be more than enough to invade.
 
IF the Serbian army enters Greece to save their asses the neutrality ends.
there's no way Germany or Bulgaria will accept that. remember that Germany didn't even consider to not invade Belgium.
Greece is a lot more weaker.
if i remember well during the Balkan war Greece had the second smallest army after Montenegro. something like 150K troops. badly equipped.
Bulgaria and Albania would be more than enough to invade.
But that also relies on "if." To be fair, they could, Greece and Serbia have always been close, at least since both nations regained independence in the 19th century. So there is a chance that it could happen. However it also depends on what either Venizelos or Konstantinos I does. Does Greece turn on their friendship and turn the Serbs away (which is the path likely to be favored by Constantine), or do they risk sacrificing their neutrality and allow them in (which is the path likely to be favored by Venizelos). Obviously Bulgaria would likely favor the Venezelist route, as war with Greece means one step closer to fulfilling Greater Bulgaria.
 
Unfortunately I can't see the image in question-- what was it of?
It's a picture of a guy hiding in a cupboard waiting to ambush an oblivious soldier with the caption "Paul von Lettow-Vorbeck" and "Entente Soldiers Who Could've Been Sent To Europe" respectively. Honestly the fact that the most successful guerilla campaign in history was fought by a Prussian guy in East Africa while taking on Indians and Portuguese soldiers just proves that history is stranger than fiction. That's without even mentioning the Battle of Tanga which was won by bees as much as German bullets.
 
Chapter X- Exodus

Chapter X

Exodus


"The city is lost but I live."

So spoke Constantine Palaiologos at the Fall of Constantinople. His city was doomed yet the emperor had fought on. The legend of the last emperor dying on the parapets had inspired Slavs for four hundred years. King Peter of Serbia was determined to do the same. Two field armies sat across the Danube, Bulgaria lay to the southeast, and the Italian XVI Corps waited in Albania. Victory was impossible; few would survive defeat. Honour was the best King Peter could hope for. He would stay with his people to the end.

The Central Powers attacked on 7 October. Austro-Hungarian and German units forced their way over the Danube, quickly encircling Belgrade. The Serbian government had long since fled and they entered a ghost town. Haunted faces and stray dogs greeted them. Fears of mass looting proved groundless- they had to keep the pursuit going. Northern Serbia was mostly flat and with decent roads; perfect conditions for an advancing army. Meanwhile, the Bulgarians attacked from the east. Rugged mountains proved no obstacle to men who had grown up in this terrain. Nish fell within days; Skopje shortly thereafter. Bulgaria immediately began preparing for annexation: civilian officials came from Sofia to oversee reconstruction, street signs went up in Bulgarian, and newspapers began denouncing the so-called Belgrade regime. To the southwest, Italian forces pushed into Kosovo despite the poor terrain, achieving minimal progress.

Serbian forces traded space for time, retreating into the defensible southwestern mountains. Albania's Prime Minister Essad Pasha had led his country into the Central Powers with Italian backing, closing off one escape route. Their only hope was to reach Salonika, which British troops had occupied to use as a Balkan base. They would have to travel along the Albanian border, taking care not to fall foul of the Bulgarians, Italians, or any of the Albanian factions. Despite Pasha's declaration of war, the country was in such a poor state it might just be possible. (1) The only alternative was being cut down where they stood.

As they passed through villages, young boys and geriatrics donned the colours despite having no place on a conventional battlefield. Many lacked weapons, uniforms, and training, but they had grit and patriotism. "Honour" led them to violent and often horrid deaths. Women and children often followed suit. Villages, property, and crops couldn't be saved but life and bodily integrity might. Just as their Slavic ancestors had a millennium before, a whole people trekked down the Balkan mountains. Fathers marched in front with rifle and bayonet; women and children were two miles back with the baggage train. No trash was discarded lest it give the enemy a clue. Stench hung about the refugees, every breath reminding them of their fate. Coughing and choking, people marched on, eyes red and spit on their chins. Food was half a bowl of kasha and two slices of bread a day. Melted snow was oddly refreshing. Cold winds savaged the refugees like an artillery barrage, but there was no taking cover. People died of who-knew-what: typhus, cold, starvation, exhaustion, grief, or simply losing the will to live. They crumpled on the trail, wearing military uniform, civilian suits, skirts, or schoolboy trousers, without drawing a moment's notice. The King rode a sedan chair as Constantine XI had, without which he wouldn't have survived. Peter battled typhus, fear for his son (despite his history of ill health, Crown Prince Alexander marched with the men), and an overwhelming depression.

He had lost. Peter had tried to do his best, but he could not. Had he been wrong to decline Austria's ultimatum in summer 1914? How easy it would have been to swallow pride! His people could have escaped so much suffering had he simply chosen better. Now he understood what it meant to be a martyr.

The crying and the screaming.

The old woman with the red hair, half her face burnt to a crisp. Those breadcrusts didn't save the girl in the end- born 1910, died 1915- what a waste. Looked filling really.

The child wanted his mummy. Where was she? Mummy!

Dark shadow beneath the tree. Something German, creaking footsteps, no one around, something German, mountain rock falling four hundred feet, something German...

You did your best Your Royal Highness. A hero for fifty generations of Serbs but not this fucking one haha, such a hero of a king I gave them this... but it's honourable.

Serbia will live forever- God of Justice; Thou who saved us when in deepest bondage cast, hear Thy Serbian children's voices, be our help as in the past-

My God, my God, why have You abandoned me?

Shaking hard-- "Wake up, sir!"


"Where are we?" His eyes widened at the foreign flag on the mountaintop. "My God!"

***
"They are not a humanitarian issue but a political one", Constantine wrote on the first of December 1915. The Greek king- who referred to himself as Palaiologos' successor- wanted nothing to do with the Serbian refugees. Part of this was pragmatism. Nearly a hundred thousand Serbians were assembled on the border, in dire need of food and medical attention. Many were armed, and there was no telling where they'd go next. Allowing them into his country- even if only to link up with the Royal Navy- wasn't an option. The Serbians would everything in sight, steal what wasn't bolted down, and kill anyone who got in their way. It would be an armed invasion, nothing less. Crucially, key Serbian political leaders were amongst the refugees. Granting them formal political asylum was technically legal yet Berlin and Sofia might not see it that way. Central Powers forces might force their way into Greece to capture King Peter or the Serb parliament. The ensuing war would be brief and end with German flags in Athens.

Beyond basic national security, domestic and international politics were major factors. King Constantine was of Danish ancestry and married to a Prussian princess; this disposed him towards the Central Powers. Britain's occupation of Salonika had outraged the King, who'd considered forcibly evicting them. Despite this, Constantine opposed declaring war. As commander-in-chief, he knew the state of Greece's army: nine divisions which hadn't recovered from the Balkan Wars. Britain could easily sweep the Greek navy aside, bombard Athens, and blockade the coast. Nor could he stand to be on the same side as either the Bulgarians or Turks. After conferring with his favourite advisers, Constantine formally closed the northern border. Central Powers ambassadors were informed that their men were to halt at the frontier, but that all Serbians in Greece would be interred and delivered to them. It was, the King hoped, a reasonable balance between the needs of the Central Powers and the demands of neutrality.

Unfortunately, not everyone saw it that way.

As strong-willed as he was liberal, Eleftherios Venizelos (2) had served as Prime Minister for five years. His supporters- who dubbed themselves Venizelists- came from every walk of life. His leadership in the Balkan Wars endeared him to nationalists; liberals and intellectuals appreciated his reform initiatives. People referred to him behind his back- certainly not when the press could hear- as the "King of the Hellenes". Many considered Venizelos as integral to Greece as the Parthenon. None of this endeared him to King Constantine. The monarch viewed him as a potential rival and was suspicious of his Anglophilia. Both were nationalists yet had very different views on how to strengthen Greece. Venizelos sought Anglo-French help against Turkey, and had called for Greek troops to go to Gallipoli, as well as acquiescing to Britain's occupation of Salonika. Triumph over Bulgaria and Turkey would leave Greece king of the Balkans, and cooperating with the Entente was the surest means to that end.

The collapse of Serbia doomed relations with the King. Constantine blamed him for the British occupation of Salonika, and dissolved Parliament in October. A lesser man would have taken the snub and retired meekly, but Venizelos was too aware of his own strength. A coup wasn't an option, but he could do the next best thing. Venizelos returned to his native Crete, where he was greeted with thunderous applause. "Ζητω ο Βενιζελος!", they cried. "Ζήτω ο γενέθλιος γιος της Κρήτης!" (3) With nothing to lose, Venizelos could speak uninhibited, and he soon became far more of a nuisance to Constantine than he had in Athens. Daily, he denounced the "German prince Constantine and his lackey Prime Minister" who "force such sufferings, of almost mediaeval proportions, upon the innocent population of Serbia!" The Venizelist governor of Crete faded into the background, ceding effective power to the exiled Prime Minister. Contrary to what his detractors claimed (and subsequent events suggested), Venizelos didn't intend to form a rival government or declare Cretan independence. His hope was that Constantine would try and fail to govern without Venizelists, forcing him to recall the Prime Minister. Having made the King back down, Venizelos would have near-total power.

Unfortunately, events on the mainland were moving too fast for the Prime Minister.

Five thousand Serbians reached the town of Slabinje on 3 December. Nestled in the mountains of Northern Epirus, Slabinje had been under Greek occupation since autumn 1914. It was nominally part of the "Republic of Northern Epirus" yet Greek soldiers patrolled the streets and Athens considered it theirs. Upon reaching Slabinje, the Serbians cheered wildly. The Italians would never dare cross the border-- they were free! The overwhelmed Greek captain in charge feared chaos: these people had just escaped from hell, what might they do to get their hands on supplies? Reinforcements poured into the village, shepherding the Serbians into a camp on the shores of nearby Lake Ohrid. Arrangements were made for the Hellenic Red Cross to visit the camp, as conditions were horrid. Malnutrition and related ailments claimed dozens every day, as did infection and cholera (Lake Ohrid was far from potable). Repeated typhus outbreaks prompted the Greeks to quarantine the camp. This was a humanitarian disaster, yet the political damage was minimal. Military occupation and quarantine kept nosy reporters out, keeping the outside world in the dark. Since the Red Cross was overseeing care, the cost to the government was minimal.

King Constantine wanted the refugees gone. Besides being an epidemic waiting to happen, the camp violated his agreement with the Central Powers. German officers- considered more trustworthy than Bulgarians- entered under flag of truce in late January to detain "prisoners of political or military utility". Two dozen Serbian parliamentarians and a hundred officers of varying rank were identified and taken into captivity. They would spend the rest of the war in a prison camp south of Belgrade, spreading typhus to their German guards. That left over four thousand men, who the Germans expressly did not want. These women, children, and elderly had no productive or political value, and they could spread disease or cause unrest. Constantine was furious. What was he to do with these useless mouths?

The only ones who could help him were Eleftheros Venizelos and the Royal Navy.

Constantine reached out to the British ambassador in Athens, Sir Francis Elliot, on Christmas Day 1915. He described the appalling conditions in the refugee camp, shocking Elliot, who had heard only rumours. He had decided to transfer the refugees to Crete, which had a healthier climate and where the risk of an "incident" with the Central Powers was minimal. This was both humanitarian and perfectly neutral, yet it lay beyond the Greek navy's capacities. Would the Royal Navy squadrons based in Salonika be willing to assist Greece?

Elliot considered. Unbeknownst to Constantine, London had decided Salonika was untenable. The so-called Gardeners of Salonika were achieving nothing crouched behind mountains and fortifications. Supplying them, especially in the face of Italian and Ottoman naval opposition, was an expensive challenge. Worst of all, they lacked the strength to repel a major Bulgarian attack. Evacuation orders were imminent. (4) Could Britain afford to take four and a half thousand refugees with them as they left? Elliot thanked Constantine for his time and referred the matter to London. The day after New Year's 1916, he had his answer.

Picking the refugees up from Greece's western coast wasn't an option. The Regia Marina would sweep over the transport fleet, and providing them sufficient escorts would be too risky. It would also take too long and cost too much, delaying the evacuation of Salonika. Yet if the Greeks could transport the refugees to Salonika, the Royal Navy would be willing to move them to Crete. Constantine wasn't thrilled at the idea of moving four and a half thousand refugees across his country, but this was his best chance to solve the issue. Regular Army units, not border militia, supervised the transfer. The Serbians traveled in a cramped sealed train, eating Army rations. Little attention was paid to hygiene, with the sick and healthy side-by-side, but the Greeks didn't care. Soon these miserable refugees and the damned British would be out of their country! A skeleton British force greeted them at Salonika on 1 February. Most of the warships and soldiers had been sent to Cairo, but no one expected any trouble. This was an internal matter of a neutral country, and the British ships carried no military cargo. Twelve hours later, Constantine watched the convoy sail past Athens with binoculars. He smiled at the thought of sending that upstart Venezelos a humanitarian catastrophe. We'll see how much he likes being his own man then.

***
Some King I look like. His beard was overgrown and grimy, he wore a torn civilian overcoat, and limped. The tossing of the merchant ship made him want to vomit. He had no business being here, not when so many of his people were gone. A salty tear fell into the Aegean. Was he safe in British hands? Would the Cretan authorities, if they knew who he was, turn him over to the enemy? Will I ever see Serbia again? Will Alexander ever rule what is rightfully his? He knew the answer in his bones. Why me, God? Why me? What good was a useless king, one who had to disguise himself as a commoner? If he shouted to his countrymen, "I am your King, Serbia lives!", would they even recognise him? Were these four thousand dying men all that remained of the great nation? God of Justice; Thou who saved us when in deepest bondage cast, hear Thy Serbian children's voices, be our help as in the past. The prayer repulsed him. You could have done things differently, hypocrite. This war- and this fate- is your fault. King Peter would have leapt into the sea had damnation not awaited.
***

"Commander, we have a contact!" The executive officer stepped back from the periscope with a ruddy Sicilian grin. "Look for yourself, sir."

"Show me, signore." Luigi Rizzo peered through the periscope. "Guarda, guarda", he muttered, "the inglesi are certainly careless." He smirked. "Perhaps it is carrying coal? Wouldn't like to sink it if that's so." Rizzo considerered. No warships in sight but the ship was moving bloody fast- he couldn't chase it down. Going due south... not turning east towards Egypt. Were the inghlesi trying to put men or equipment in Crete? Either that, or it was about to make a very sharp turn. Either way, he stood a very good chance of cutting it off.

"Take us down to 035, signore. Cut... south by southeast, fast as we can go." Klaxons blared and the pressure increased. Rizzo's ears popped as he did some quick calculations. "Nineteen knots, about two miles away..." He smiled. "Even at the speed he's going, he will soon cross our path. Tell the torpedo crews to stand by."

"Already done, Commander." The executive officer grinned. "Not altering course at all. If he doesn't know we're here..."

"...then he's as good as dead already." Rizzo took a deep breath. The submarine was in position and the merchantman was cruising along nicely. Nothing he could do to change things now. "Eight hundred yards away... seven hundred fifty..." Now or never.

"Fire tube one! Fire tube two!" With a great rushing noise, two torpedoes flew out of the ship, leaving bubbly trails in their wake. Rizzo counted silently, fingers crossed. Four seconds later two great explosions cut through the Aegean. Rizzo peered through the periscope, ears ringing. The British freighter had never seen it coming. Already it was listing nearly twenty degrees and taking on plenty of water. Smoke billowed from its bowels. A good thing we attack like our German allies do, he thought. Far more efficient.

Ten minutes later the ship was below the waterline. Unbeknownst to Rizzo, King Peter had just achieved martyrdom.





  1. Considerably harder than what happened OTL-- no surprise it failed
  2. Eleftherios Venezelos-- what a first name!
  3. "Long live Venizelos!" "Long live Crete's native son!" Apologies for that-- I wanted to practise typing with different keyboard inputs for a seperate coding project I'm doing... all Greek to me....
  4. This is actually OTL. Britain wanted to evacuate in January 1916 but the French convinced them to stay. Since Salonika is all-British ITTL (the French are in the Alps and Tunisia), London quits the front early.
Comments?
 
Last edited:
Top