Chapter V- A Change In Government
Chapter V
A Change In Government
Antonio Salandra awoke early on the fourth of August 1915, dressed, and took his first smoke of the day. His nerves wouldn't stomach coffee, much less food. Every step felt like that of a condemned man towards the gallows. There was nothing for it, he told himself. No government lasted forever; seldom was the collapse of a government fatal to one's career. Servants moved his property out of the Prime Minister's residence as his wife decamped for their country estate. There they would remain throughout the war, enjoying exile as Salandra planned a return to power.First, however, he had to be in at the death.
Speaker after speaker arose to criticise the Government. Most belonged to the Liberal Union, a fusion of liberal and conservative parties which had politically dominated for two years. They didn't claim the Liberal Union ought not to govern- that would have imperilled their own positions- but rather that Salandra was not the man for the job. Antonino Castello, who bore a grudge for being removed as Foreign Minister in November 1914, savaged Salandra's foreign policy, calling him a "sell-out to the inghlesi" and accusing him of betraying the Triple Alliance. Defence Minister Zapelli reasoned that nothing he did could save the Salandra government, so best to ingratiate himself with the successor. He castigated the Prime Minister's neglect of the military and "inability- or is it lack of desire?- to defend our honour". General Cadorna made a speech on similar lines. Even Giovanni Giliotti, who had tried to protect Salandra at the previous day's Cabinet meeting, questioned his ability to foster national unity.
Backed into a corner, it was all the Prime Minister could do to behave honourably.
Salandra defended his conduct before Parliament and the King, stating his honest belief that neutrality was best for Italy. He claimed that had Britain not "infringed out honour" he would have tried to deepen his partnership with them, but did not shy from blaming them for the country's economic woes. Had he his way, Italy would have sided with "whichever powers proved most willing to back our sacro egoisimo", or remained neutral if neither suited him. British stupidity and the impatience of the Italian right wing, not his own failings, were responsible for the Government's failings. "Look to self-interest in London, not any policy of my Government, as the source of our ills. My record has been one of placation, attempted compromise, and reason in time of war and unruly passion. Consider that for all our ills, the Italian soldier remains at peace because of deliberate policies of this Government..." It was a fair speech, and after the horrors of war and disappointments of peace many realised Salandra hadn't been incompetent; merely trying to do what was moral against overwhelming odds and uncooperative actors. Modern historians have rehabilitated the man (for an excellent analysis of his tenure, see A Precarious Neutrality: The Impossible Prime Ministership of Antonio Salandra, published by the University of Rome, 1994). Yet none of that did any good on the day of.
By a two-thirds majority, Parliament and the Chamber of Deputies voted no confidence in the present government.
The speeches and vote itself had taken most of the day, and Parliament adjourned at five PM. Those unsullied by their leader's fall went out to celebrate. While some ate and drank, the fallen Salandra returned home. He sat in the half-empty Prime Minister's residence, all the Classical statues and Baroque paintings en route to his estate, the lights and heat turned off to save money, and put his head in his hands. Everything he had done in his tenure had been for Italy- and now he knew what the people thought of him. Whoever they elected would be a demagogue, he would take Italy into a war which didn't suit its interests, and the people would suffer as a result. Perhaps then they would regret voting out Prime Minister Antonio Salandra, whose only crime was to have reacted to provocation with reason rather than passion. But whatever else came, he would play no part in it. Salandra remained in Rome long enough to get his successor's government up and running before decamping to his country estate; after the war, when his expected political renaissance failed to come, he emigrated to the United States. After ten years of teaching law and economics at Yale, he died in 1931. His epitaph came from Scipio Africanus, "Ingrata patria, ne ossa quidem habebis." (1)
The business now began of forming a new government. No one doubted that the Liberal Union would lead; the question was which individual had the confidence of his peers. That man's clique would form the centre of power. The fifth of August passed in deliberation and argument as King Vittorio Emmanuel considered the prospects. Shortly before seven PM, a confidential letter was sent from the Quirinal Palace to Sidney Sonnino's townhouse in Rome. His Majesty wished to see the two-time Prime Minister within the hour.
Born on the eve of the Revolutions of 1848, Sonnino was an "elder statesman" of Italian politics. More of an administrator than a politician- he had served as Finance Minister thirty years ago and Foreign Minister under Salandra- he enjoyed much respect as one who got things done and as a staunch defender of the liberal monarchy. He respected Salandra's conservative instincts, yet had pushed for a more assertive foreign policy. When war began, Sonnino had favoured neither side, yet British actions now inclined him towards the Central Powers, or at least towards a "militant neutrality." Besides, he knew how to ride the Anglophobic crest in Parliament. Sonnino submitted to the Monarch's request to form a Government. King Vittorio Emmanuel postponed Parliament twenty-four hours to give the new man time to act.
Politically adept and moderately conservative, Sonnino's abrasiveness made him hard to work with. His government picks suggested continuity with Salandra and a desire to minimise friction with other, strong-willed men. He claimed Finance and Foreign Affairs for himself and kept Vittorio Zupelli as Defence Minister. Sinecures filled the other positions; men who could handle paperwork and manage subordinates well enough but who would never challenge the Prime Minister. Reviewing the Cabinet picks, the King is said to have remarked, "perhaps I ought to surrender my crown now; Sonnino's word will shortly be law!" Giovanni Giliotti was furious at being excluded from the new machine, and rumour spread of a schism within the Liberal Union. The more astute observers soon realised Sonnino had little agenda beyond being the conservative Salandra ought to have been. Yet with Royal Assent and something resembling parliamentary confidence, Sidney Sonnino returned to the Prime Ministership on 6 August 1915.
Though the war and collapse of the Liberal Union would ruin his reputation, in August 1915 Sonnino was genuinely popular. People had hoped Salandra would be a beacon of conservatism; he ended up an ineffective leader and scapegoat for national ills. Sonnino had won the confidence of Italy not by repudiating Salandra's ideas but promising to build on them. The old man had good ideas but could not enact them; I can. He reportedly wrote to his predecessor shortly after taking office, asking if he wanted a government post or increased pension; pride kept Salandra from answering. Having had two short-lived governments before, Sonnino was determined to make this one work. Defending national honour and maritime rights (though he didn't specifically mention Britain) growing the economy, protecting the liberal system from "radicalism of all stripes and all positions"- whatever earned him cheers went. Control of finance and foreign policy gave him the heaviest hand Italian politics had seen for years. Giliotti and his ilk remained on the back benches, heckling but not threatening. Everything was going according to plan.
Then as crisp September dawned, the Defence Minister and Chief of the General Staff invited him to the German embassy. An hour later he staggered out, face white as a sheet, clutching a confidential folder.
The Cabinet convened at dawn the next day, ostensibly to hear a budgetary report from the General Staff. Only Cadorna, Zupelli, and Sonnino knew their true purpose. Secrecy and short notice kept nosy reporters ignorant. Political pressure had forced Salandra to choose between country and career; Sonnino wasn't about to make the same mistake. Defying policy, the Prime Minister ordered that no potentially incriminating minutes be kept, leaving historians with only journal entries and postwar interviews to reconstruct the scene. Not even servants were allowed; they tabled all discussion while coffee was poured.
Sonnino was about to decide the future of Italy and the trajectory of the Great War. Absolute secrecy was the least he could have asked for.
He tossed the packet on the table and collapsed into the leather armchair, heart racing, and took a soothing sip of espresso. Nine wide-eyed men, only a few of whom truly mattered, stared back. Their aristocratic beards and commanding uniforms only made their faces seem paler. It was said, at any rate, and he knew a certain idle pride at delivering the news himself rather than delegating it to Cadorna or Zupelli. Doubtful they will turn on me. Good Cabinet members didn't argue. And if they do, I will bring them down, burn the documents. They'll never prove anything. The right words eluded everyone. Another fifteen seconds passed.
"This, it must go without saying, enjoys the full confidence of Germany's General Staff. Both the Ambassador and General von Dellmensingen confirmed this to me." (2) Luigi Cadorna sat at Sonnino's right, Defence Minister Zupelli on his left. The rest of the Cabinet was sprawled down a thirty-foot oak conference table. "Reliable members of our own General Staff have also reviewed the report and found it satisfactory. Naturally, had either party found any deficiency, this would never have reached yourselves." What Cadorna hadn't told the Cabinet, Sonnino knew too well, was that von Dellmensingen's strategy didn't align with Italy's existing war plans for France. But one thing at a time.
"We cannot wait forever, gentlemen. All the components of victory are in place now, and a strike will bring success. Yet in six months, or a year, the war may be over and our chance will have vanished." And beating the war-drum will no longer be politically valuable. Mustn't tell the reporters that one. "Shall we say we sat on our hands when, as our German allies have made so clear, the chances of victory have never been higher?" The Prime Minister frowned. "Shall we give our enemies another excuse to call us cowards?"
The Education Minister, small both in stature and spirit, rose and grabbed one of the maps from Cadorna's packet and pointed to France. "See how far these lines have moved in a year? See how much glory the French have won so far? And at what cost?" He spread his hands. "How many French and Germans have been wasted because their imbecile governments cannot make peace? Should we join them and, like Lucretia, commit suicide for honour's sake" Education took a deep breath. "For all the damage to our economy, we prosper because of our neutrality. Letting Germany convince us to throw that away for "honour", sir, would be a decision beneath this Government."
Who gave you a voice at this table? Presence didn't equal power, and no junior minister had the right to speak so frankly. "Would you have said the same to Garibaldi sixty years ago? Would you have told him our honour is not worth it? The austriaci are finally seeing reason; we have an assurance of Trentino and all of Zadar once we win, as well as Nice and Savoy- ancestral land of His Majesty!- once we win." Sonnino leaned over the table at the Education Minister. "Or do you not think Italia irredenta is worth it?" If the man said no, he was gone. But the Education Minister nodded slowly.
"What about our energy needs?" The Minister of Industry waved his own documents. "I do not dispute your moral, political point, Signore, but I do fear shortfalls. Honour is a beautiful thing, but it cannot power an economy. And I fear war may push us over the edge." Sonnino grimaced- the man could clearly prove his point- and nodded. "Well, Signore", Industry continued, "the year before the war we imported 10.6 million tonnes of coal and produced a mere 600,000 tonnes ourselves, consuming all of this. The outbreak of war distorted figures for 1914, but in the first three quarters of this year we imported nine million tonnes, half of which came via special arrangement with Germany. Domestic production remained minor. Without support from the Germans..." Industry took a sip of fortified coffee, bracing himself. "Without support from the Germans, total economic collapse on an unseen scale would have occurred following the suspension of British coal."
All the prosperous careerists around the table cringed. Being reminded that failure was real and their grand plans could crash around their ears was sobering. The worst part, Sonnino knew, was that Industry was right. Years of economic experience had shown him the country's weaknesses, and like everyone he'd seen coal rise with his own eyes. "Are you saying we cannot sustain our economy if we transition to war?" But how have we managed without the inghlesi for the better part of a year?
"Not precisely, Signore. What I am saying is that German aid was a deliverance, a deus ex machina. We cannot count on such miracles very often. Now as per the agreement, Germany will send another three million tonnes of coal throughout this year, which will sustain us well into 1916. But once the agreement ends, we will still be in the same position unless Germany renews it. Even if we declare war tomorrow and achieve victory by Christmas"- Cadorna thrust out his chin- "we will still face dire shortfalls in the coming year." He paused. "I am an economist, Prime Minister, not a diplomat. Yet it seems painfully clear that, dependent on two producers of coal, it would behoove us to maintain relations with both. We cannot rely on Germany the same way we did Britain, and..."
"Understood. I thank you for your analysis, but you are correct- you are not a diplomat." Sonnino sighed, trying to think like a German. He knew rerouting coal from the home front to Italy came at a high cost. But would Berlin be willing to extend the treaty another year, if it meant getting a second front against the French? Nothing von Dellmensingen had said suggested otherwise, but what did one liaison officer know about economic policy? "Suppose we can procure a similar agreement from Germany. What could we accomplish given another 7.5 million tonnes a year from them?"
"Peacetime operations would be feasible, but war would be another matter. The belligerents have converted their whole economies to war footings and still have problems. Our stockpiles will sustain us for a time, but..." Zupetti and Cadorna glared daggers at the nervous Minister. "...but they were designed for a briefer conflict. Expanding the Army, training conscripts, replacing expended munitions, maneouvering the Regia Marina will all add up. And speaking as an economist- not a diplomat or an officer- I cannot see how to make it work. I hope the General Staff and our diplomatic corps can prove me wrong" He spread his hands and sat back down. (3)
Zupetti and Cadorna looked ready to strangle the Minister for Industry. His look declared that, having spoken the truth, his conscience was clean. After a moment's thought, Sonnino stood up. "Gentlemen, I thank you for coming today. Having heard all this, the issues are far clearer." This is why Salandra couldn't join the war, and it destroyed him. For a moment Sonnino pictured himself denounced in Parliament, the Minister for Industry's arguments blown aside. Facts trumped honour. "My conversations with German officials suggest that we can extend our economic agreement", he said slowly. "I will attempt to get a formal agreement via our Berlin embassy. If we can obtain another 7.5 million tonnes for the coming year-"
"Ten." Industry shook his head. "Ten at minimum for war, though twelve and a half would be better. And I doubt we will get a bargain price."
"Fine. Whatever we need to pay, we will. If we can get all this, it buys us a year to win the war, after which, our political objectives achieved, we can determine a sustainable path for coal supply." Industry reluctantly nodded. "General Cadorna, if given full writ to prosecute hostilities, can we win by the end of 1916?"
"Absolutely." No hint of worry in Cadorna's voice- but then, there wouldn't be. "As I told our German allies and the Defence Minister, our officer corps is superb. Men and equipment are adequate. Given French weakness and sufficient resources, victory is assured." His scowl dared any mere civilian to defy him. Defence Minister Zupetti wordlessly confirmed with a nod. "We do not deny the science of economics, but rather insist on the supremacy of strength and courage. Enough of that will let us win, regardless of what comes next." (4)
Sonnino nodded. "If we can secure coal supplies from Germany for 1916, and if our Armed Forces can bring victory within months, as General Cadorna claims,"- and as everyone claimed a year ago, he thought, "then this war will be winnable. Italy will avenge the insults to her honour and secure our countrymen beyond the frontiers." He stared around the table. Ten men, one of whom wasn't even on the Cabinet, another of whom held three offices, were about to cast their nation into the furnace. The road would be long and bloody, forcing another of Europe's peoples from peace to war. It would throw the national economy into turmoil. No one wanted to contemplate how calamitous defeat would be. Am I in the right? Not just in my calculations, but morally? Imperceptibly, Sonnino shook his head. Having reached a decision, he couldn't question it even in his own heart. Twenty-five years of politics had made that very clear. He rose.
"It is settled, then. I will establish diplomatic overtures to Vienna and Berlin, communicating our interest in joining. If the negotiations go well, we will have war. If not, we shall send General von Dellmensingen home, I shall burn this packet, and we shall say no more about it." That is reasonable... surely?
Having decided for war, the Sonnino Government now had to lay the groundwork. Italy in autumn 1915 was neither militarily nor politically ready for war. (5) Economic arrangements had to be made with Germany and concessions from the Habsburgs finalised. Italy's economy could not function without the first and it would lack the political will for war without the second. Meanwhile, General Cadorna had to modify pre-existing war plans, devise a united strategy with Germany and Austria-Hungary, and begin mobilisation. All this had to occur without arousing Entente suspicion and prompting a pre-emptive strike.
The Habsburgs were understandably hesitant to cede territory to Italy. Ethnic divisions were a major problem, and acknowledging that the Italians under their flag had a right to unite with Rome would set precedent. If it could happen in Trentino, why not Transylvania? Pride was another factor- Emperor Franz Joseph had been in his thirties when the Italian state was founded, and now they wanted concessions from him? These issues had impeded negotiations back in January, and few in Vienna had any appetite for revisiting them. With the war going well enough, Italian neutrality was perfectly sufficient.
Yet Germany saw things differently. Habsburg stature had fallen since the war began and their wishes carried less weight. Having gone to war partially on Austria's behalf and bailed them out in Serbia and Galicia, Germany felt entitled to sacrifice Habsburg interests for "the greater good". Facing another year of Western Front stalemate, Germany would do whatever was needed to open a second front against France. Diplomatic but terse exchanges between Heinrich von Tschirschky, German ambassador to Vienna, and their Foreign Minister Stephan von Rajcez, set the tone. If Austro-Hungarian recalcitrance kept Italy out of the war, Germany would retaliate. Von Tschirschky failed to specify, but von Rajcez knew too well how dependent his nation was.
Italy, Germany, and the Dual Monarchy agreed to meet at a Swiss country estate belonging to a wealthy German. Sonnino personally led Italy's delegation; Tschirschky, von Rajcez, and German ambassador to Italy Hans von Flotow were all present. This was a diplomatic summit, not a military one; only civilians were present and military matters barely discussed. In his memoirs, von Rajcez described the negotiations as "Germany and Italy uniting, forcing our delegation to agree to a compromise peace." He was not wrong. German diplomats frequently spoke for and went over the heads of their Austro-Hungarian counterparts, demonstrating considerable generosity towards Italy. Germany and Italy wielded Austro-Hungarian agreements "in principle" to cede "certain territories" as rhetorical weapons: they weren't imposing anything new, merely insisting on existing agreements.
The principal issues had not changed: Italy insisted on ethnic Italian and strategically valuable territories; the Dual Monarchy defended its territorial integrity. Nonetheless, with German backing, Italy made inroads. Sonnino was willing to sacrifice the South Tyrol and city of Bolanzo, and under German pressure decided not to press his claims, something von Rajcez took as an olive branch. Sonnino also coveted a small border strip containing the towns of Tolmino, Gradisca, and Gorizia. These towns were strategically positioned and- though no one dared say it aloud- would enhance defence in any Austro-Italian war. Von Rajcez ceded them only under pressure.
Despite von Flotow's best efforts, negotiations nearly failed over the question of Trieste. Sonnino had demanded it earlier in the year and been rebuffed. Now, faced with a second refusal, he made a careful gambit, threatening to walk out of negotiations if the port wasn't ceded. He would never have followed through- to return to his cabinet empty-handed would have destroyed his nascent government- but knew Germany would back him if he put his foot down. In exchange for abandoning claims to the rest of the Istria Peninsula, Sonnino was able to pocket Trieste. Austria-Hungary retained free basing and commercial rights in perpetuity. After a debate over whether or not Italy should get the territories immediately or at the war's end, the Germans proposed a compromise. Italy would get provisional control in thirty days, during which anyone who desired to leave could. Citizens of the Dual Monarchy could retain that status, and plebiscites would occur at the war's end. The Austro-Hungarians howled at such mistreatment, but Germany was unrelenting. Both parties walked away imperfectly satisfied, but well aware that it could have been worse. Sonnino sent Cadorna a telegram the night of the signing with three words:
Alea iacta est.
(1) Ungrateful fatherland, you shall not even have my bones
(2) See the previous chapter
(3) Most of these issues didn't apply in OTL because, as an Entente nation, Italy still had access to British coal.
(4) In August 1914, this was foolish, yet forgivable. Thirteen months later, it's detached from reality.
(5) Joining the Entente was easier; the Anglo-French could promise more territory and Britain could bankroll the whole thing.
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