REDUX: Place In The Sun: What If Italy Joined The Central Powers?
- Thread starter Kaiser Wilhelm the Tenth
- Start date
I think France can lose a lot of Africa due to political instability and leaving only Algeria and some Pacific Islands as French territory. And Guinea.
For a start: update tomorrow!
Some great discussion here. Chipping in with my $0.02 and then an announcement...
It will certainly be interesting to explore.
The Armenians won't have a pleasant time of it ITTL (though once the Pashas leave office things will probably improve). Pontic and Greek Turks, probably better.
Warlord China is an interest of mine: I don't particularly like how Kaiserreich depicted it, and will definitely give it due space. Suggestions welcome.
1.0 paid South America little heed but it's fair to say that Germans and Italians in Argentina and Brazil will exercise greater political weight than OTL. I'd need to do more research before writing an update though.
The main factor opposing German colonial expansion at French expense will be the Royal Navy. The real calculations here will be made in London: is the cost of continued occupation of Germany's colonial empire, and of financing continued French control of its possessions, worth denying these things to Germany? What concessions can they get on the Continent in exchange for selling French colonial interests down the river? There's a joke about this:
Don't underestimate the agency of native peoples either; the Senussi campaign (one of the things which got left out of 1.0 and which I really want to cover here!) proves that at least some native tribes had considerable military capacity. Now what happens when Mausers begin washing up on the beaches of Algeria... and if you want to reclaim your independence after eighty years and eject all those white squatters, we won't mind a bit?
Also: After getting the approval of @Ian the Admin, I am thrilled to announce that we now have a Discord Server! The Invite Link below will be good for 7 days; I will post a new one when the time comes. Join for more discussion, early canon reveals, and other enhancements!
(And please PM me if I've bungled the invite somehow!)
Some great discussion here. Chipping in with my $0.02 and then an announcement...
That makes sense; I'd add that Georges Sorel, who influenced both Mussolini and Lenin, as well as playing a key role in 1.0, will still likely be in the Redux, though likely in a different capacity. The lack of a fanatical Nazi regime mass-murdering across the continent will have massive effects on fascism's popular image ITTL; without the stigma of Hitler, many of its ideas (such as hypernationalism, statism, ethnocentrism, etc) could well be more mainstream in TTL's political discourse. This is probably a bad thing, but countered by the lack of Nazis taking such ideas to their ultimate, evil, conclusion.
It will certainly be interesting to explore.
This is very possible. Christian fascism/Integralism is a fascinating subject with room to grow ITTL if the right conditions present themselves. It would certainly be different in many respects from what the Third Reich or even fascist Italy implemented IOTL. This, naturally, all depends on what shape France is in after getting walloped and overcoming the inevitable civil disorder.
Certainly a possibility; Count Henri of Chambord came close to coronation after the Franco-Prussian War. I'm imagining something similar to Francoist Spain, where a King acts as a figurehead for a Junta under the guise of "national unity" or "protection from communism".
France may well be "done"; you're spot-on regarding their relative inability to make a contrasted with OTL's Nazis. So many factors, from harder enemies to reduced birthrates, are working against them. That said, France won't remain in chaos forever and eventually its leaders will have to devise a path forward in Germany's Europe.
Eh. TL-191 (as well as the proto-Place In the Sun written way before even 1.0) had Nazi France... Both can be cliches I suppose.
I agree that the Megali Idea would linger until, if ever, the Ottoman Empire collapses. Germany has a clear incentive to prop up Constantinople, but neither will it relish protracted military intervention in the Middle East. (How many ground divisions, not just commanders and materiel, did it send in OTL's WWI? Precious few.)
The Armenians won't have a pleasant time of it ITTL (though once the Pashas leave office things will probably improve). Pontic and Greek Turks, probably better.
Certainly the idea is unlikely. German support and civil war in the Ottoman Asian provinces would be the minimum prerequisites- neither of which are terribly likely.
Sadly you're both right.
Regarding France: that's a reasonable projection. No matter how severe the defeat, or how long it takes for the ramifications to become evident, I do intend for things to get better eventually. France will be something again, one day, just not what it was in 1913... anymore than the Germany of 1939 was what it was a quarter century earlier.
Warlord China is an interest of mine: I don't particularly like how Kaiserreich depicted it, and will definitely give it due space. Suggestions welcome.
1.0 paid South America little heed but it's fair to say that Germans and Italians in Argentina and Brazil will exercise greater political weight than OTL. I'd need to do more research before writing an update though.
Pockets of territory (Constantinople, Thrace, Cyprus, maybe Smyrna), yes. Anything more, doubtful.
Last chance to get those borders in full back passed eight centuries before the PoD.
Possibly!
That is what's going to happen for a time-- but inevitably, order comes out of disorder. Chaos isn't a viable basis on which to run a nation and eventually, one faction will win out simply by virtue of being the least incompetent, and the people being willing to take a chance on something stable and permanent, even if it's a Communist or Fascist state. (Warlord China is a great example of this)
Again, real possibilities.
I agree that having a Bonaparte take France for one last hurrah would be poetic... plausibility is another question though.
The latter is more likely and definitely a net plus for the people of the region. I can't promise that some of OTL's genocides will be butterflied but the Turkish ones are relatively easy to avoid.
<devil's advocate>And yet, the Scottish clans built a united nation and later came to unify with their English and Welsh enemies, no? Can we not hope for the same in the Aegean?</devil's advocate>
Tolerance for all provided they recognise the Sultan as leader of world Islam.
Japan formed puppet states out of French Indochina in 1.0; that'll carry over here.
The main factor opposing German colonial expansion at French expense will be the Royal Navy. The real calculations here will be made in London: is the cost of continued occupation of Germany's colonial empire, and of financing continued French control of its possessions, worth denying these things to Germany? What concessions can they get on the Continent in exchange for selling French colonial interests down the river? There's a joke about this:
I bolded the most crucial part of your response: Great Britain has its own agency and the Navy to enforce it. Unless, following the collapse of France, the war drags out until one side starves first (1918 or 1919), they'll always be negotiating from a postition of strength or at least equality. Germany won't get ports and bases in the Atlantic unless Britain decides they can live with that... which they probably won't.
That would be plausible... or the US might occupy them to "maintain internal security" if things get bad enough in la metropole... the money from the 99-year lease will come in handy I'm sure.
Which is exactly why the United States will never allow Germany a toehold in the Western Hemisphere.
That's an accurate assessment.
Don't underestimate the agency of native peoples either; the Senussi campaign (one of the things which got left out of 1.0 and which I really want to cover here!) proves that at least some native tribes had considerable military capacity. Now what happens when Mausers begin washing up on the beaches of Algeria... and if you want to reclaim your independence after eighty years and eject all those white squatters, we won't mind a bit?
Also: After getting the approval of @Ian the Admin, I am thrilled to announce that we now have a Discord Server! The Invite Link below will be good for 7 days; I will post a new one when the time comes. Join for more discussion, early canon reveals, and other enhancements!
(And please PM me if I've bungled the invite somehow!)
-Kaiser Wilhelm the Tenth
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Welcome back! Eagerly awaiting more content, and as before my door is open if you need a sanity check on naval matters.
The Japanese invasion of Indochina was neat but did Japan actually have the logistic capacity to actually do it?
No, but also yes.
No, because in 1917 Japan neither had the logistics or military ability to go GREATER EAST ASIA! like they could in 1942. At least, not in the face of a united front of Europe and the USA.
Yes, because by 1917 in the original version of this TL, WWI had left France a broken reed. The USA, while opposed to Japan, had no interest in either armed intervention or economic sanctions just to preserve France's colonial empire, and had its own problems with both a recession and war against Mexico. Germany and the rest of the CPs had decided to back Japan just to further weaken France, while Britain, not wanting to potentially see Japan slide into the German camp, decided to back Japan as well. Russia supported France, but like France the war had left them a broken reed (besides, they've fought Japan once before, it didn't end well, and they've no desire to repeat the experience).
Japan also made things easier on themselves by having Siam as an actual partner, and also had the support of anti-French rebels and local leaders. Siam annexed Cambodia, yes, but this being Taisho Japan, they didn't annex Vietnam or Laos, or even turn them into puppets ala OTL WWII, but actually gave them somewhat meaningful independence. They're just Japanese satellites bound by military and economic treaties, but from what I can see, the locals see it as a vast improvement compared to being under France's thumb.
I think fascism will not be as hypernationist than otl due to French fascism/Integralism doing that with the 'normal' fascists separating themselves by being more ideological and more capitalist.
Tbf a full restoration should be doable with a 1400s-1500s pod and most of the Slavs will convert around 1700s to 1800s with public schooling. Much like France and Occitan.
The other royal claimants of France might work too, but it's Napoleon. But yep the Orleanists could have an Orlean king on the throne. 'I am the state?'
Yep attaturk is a bastard. He's one of the only Fascist/Proto-Fascist leaders who succeeded.
Tbf during ittl 1940s I could see Japan trying to build the co-prosperity sphere by using Philippine rebels to liberate the Philippines and provoking an American response. A Taisho era (still with ok democracy) Japan Vs a more obviously bad America would be fun to see for once.
Not really but he wasn't against it it.https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/20857578/
I’m all for a Taisho Democracy, or Showa Democracy…heh, Japan vs. a monstrous USA.
Also be interesting to see how Austria-Hungary develops in the Redux, maybe Karl doesn’t get killed this time by Hungarians?
Also be interesting to see how Austria-Hungary develops in the Redux, maybe Karl doesn’t get killed this time by Hungarians?
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It's more that the us are killing rebels which while terrible isn't exactly evil, more just trying to keep the Philippines under their control.
Also with the warlord era Canton separatists forming an actual nation and changing their script into bopomofo (phonetic spelling to prevent citizens from being able to read the logographic script) would be dope.
A Japanese Commonwealth would be great and a less Japan centric pan asianism would be great.
Chapter II- A Cold Winter
Chapter II
A Cold Winter
The loss of British coal imports created a ticking time bomb. Italy produced just over half a million tonnes of coal a year and imported twenty times as much. The Regia Marina ran on cheap British coal; factories and homes used it to keep the lights on. The advent of winter, threatening to leave millions unable to cook and heat their homes, deepened the need. Italy's future as a modern industrial state was at risk.Reserves began running low in December 1914, with prices ticking up accordingly. The military received priority, and the handful of rich industrialists often bribed the government into securing their supply. This left little for the people, who would stand in queues for hours in the hopes of paying twice as much for half of what they'd have received a year ago. Violence over perceived iniquities was common, whether directed at price-gouging suppliers or just those who seemed better off. By January, many Italians were spending half their budgets on coal. Alternatives such as firewood could heat homes but not power machinery. Many became reliant on churches or town halls for cooking stoves and heat. As always, the divide between north and south reared its ugly head: Northerners, subject to cold Alpine winters and in need of fuel for industry, resented agricultural southerners basking in Mediterranean warmth.
Knock-on effects abounded. Factories, attempting to cut their overheads, reduced production. The costs of energy sharply reduced profit for railroads and steamships, which cut their schedules and laid off workers accordingly. Southern grain and vegetables thus took longer and cost more to reach northern consumers, raising food prices without benefitting producers. All this caused inflation, driving the economy to the precipice by March. Strict coal rationing removed an element of chaos and uncertainty but cost Salandra popularity.
Above all, people blamed the British, who in the words of one Milan editorial:
Though an Italian declaration of war was by no means certain in January 1915, popular anger against Britain was fierce. Part came from shock. Great Britain had supported Italian unification fifty years ago, backed its colonial ventures, and been a reliable energy provider. British investment was common in the country and many progressive Italians viewed Britain as a vibrant constitutional monarchy to emulate. The question of why Britain would do such a thing was painful- but the answer was agonising. Britain had sold out their ally of five decades to save money in wartime. What Lloyd George viewed as an unpleasant cost-cutting measure, the Italians saw as a deep betrayal. Many believed the British ought to be grateful to Italy- had they not defied their treaty obligations to Germany and Austria-Hungary? Did not their neutrality make the Mediterranean Sea an Entente lake? And how did Britain thank them? By abandoning their economy, leaving their cities to freeze, and production and transport to grind to a halt!
This thanks from "Perfious Albion" would be remembered.
Salandra feared for his future. Though blaming the British was popular (and entirely justified), he knew that as Prime Minister the crisis was his responsibility. If a confidence vote was held today, would he survive? What about six weeks hence? He knew that, unlike some prior panics, this crisis would not simply resolve itself. Fortunately, unlike such panics, the root cause was simple and the remedy clear: maximise imports.
Britain was no longer an option. They were willing to sell only a fraction of what they had prewar and charged obscene prices. Besides, as the ones at fault for the crisis, Italian honour forbade giving them a single lira. That left neutrals such as Sweden and the United States, but above all Italy's old Triple Alliance partners, Germany and Austria. Prewar, Germany had exported millions of tonnes of coal a year, much of which had gone to nations now in the Entente. With its wartime needs met, the High Seas Fleet largely sitting in port, and the mines of occupied Belgium at its disposal, Germany had an abundant surplus. (1) Berlin needed an export market, and deepening relations with them would make Britain regret harming Italy.
After surviving a confidence vote on Ash Wednesday by a margin of ten votes, Salandra asked for three more months to fix the crisis, at the end of which they could do what they pleased. Parliament and the people humoured him, and the next day Salandra telephoned Ambassador Hans von Flotow. He apologised for his "infidelity" to the Triple Alliance and, while he didn't promise to join the war, promised an "enhancement of relations at the expense of our mutual enemies." Subsequent meetings led to talk of Italian sanctions against Britain and France in exchange for ten million tonnes of German coal over the next twelve months, to be paid at 1913 prices. Lacking the authority to sign such an agreement, Von Flotow passed the matter to Berlin. Foreign Minister Gottlieb von Jagow supported the measure: besides preventing a nominal ally from slipping away, this enabled German propaganda to present themselves as saving the "freezing Italian people" from "British miserliness." Diplomatic pressure led to Switzerland permitting the use of its railroads for transport, though they charged a steep rate. The Ministry of Economics insisted on cutting the total to 7.5 million tonnes- there was, after all, a war on. Nonetheless, pen was put to paper on April 1, 1915: the first cartloads embanked from Munich a month later.
The agreement with Germany alleviated Italian pain. Energy prices dropped throughout May, and the economic setbacks of the winter played out in reverse. The logistical grid and industrial networks returned to full capacity, bringing workers back and reducing prices. Inflation abated and public confidence returned. Rations, though they remained on the books, grew throughout May and June. Salandra went before Parliament on May 17 and recieved overwhelming support. Cries of "viva la Germania!" and "abbasso la Bretagna!" filled the streets. Italian and German officials developed relationships and gained experience working with each other.
By June 1915, Italy was decidedly pro-German, yet remained neutral. Its economic recovery was parlous, and Salandra lived in fear of another supply shock- or worse, a vote of no confidence. The inevitable economic and political disruptions of war would impede recovery and might threaten his ministry. Though the average Italian now felt grateful to Germany and disliked Britain, he valued his life too much to want any part of a seemingly endless war. If the Entente won, Italy would make the best of it; if the Central Powers won- increasingly likely as the Austro-Germans evicted the Russians from Poland- it could expect thanks for what von Jagow called its "benevolent neutrality".
Things would come to a head, however, after another British blunder pushed Italy off the cliff.
- Much credit to @NoMommsen for these statistics from this thread.
- Don't speak Italian, so please correct me if this is wrong!
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I don't think I commented on the first version but I was definitely enjoying it and am glad to see this return.
I too am somewhat excited to see how the British screw themselves over this time.
I too am somewhat excited to see how the British screw themselves over this time.
I think this is a very plausible chain of events, and it makes sense that Italy would still be a neutral even as a pro-CP one
Hey, Brits if Italy is so bad why didn't Santa give them coal? Checkmate Angloids