REDUX: Place In The Sun: What If Italy Joined The Central Powers?

Honestly, I'm surprised Nivelle is actually keeping his head on his shoulders here. Having the defeat of the Great War layed solely at your shoulders I imagne is not a recipe for longevity.
Well, him and Chanaris, who I maintain really should have considered leaving Europe, even though it's stated that he's never found by the French.
 
Well, him and Chanaris, who I maintain really should have considered leaving Europe, even though it's stated that he's never found by the French.
I wonder if something akin to Witness Protection would be created in Germany thanks to Chanaris, given the whole "move to this obscure place, new name, and please keep your mouth shut." when things occur that would merit the same treatment, this could become an actual practice in Germany.

Also, what are the chances of a France developing a Political Commissar system similarly to OTL Soviet Union? Just a thought here, but I imagine that having "Supervisors" to "Ensure the loyalty of our officers and weed out Chanaris's would become, at the very least an idea with a large minority of support.
 

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Honestly, I'm surprised Nivelle is actually keeping his head on his shoulders here. Having the defeat of the Great War layed solely at your shoulders I imagne is not a recipe for longevity.
The guy was very politically well connected. Canceling his offensive would have brought down the government in otl which is why they permitted him to do it over petains objections
 
I should mention that Nivelle will, in fact, fall during the coming update- the first man to take the blame for the Mutinies- and will take someone down with him…
Well let's see. Petain as commander of Army Group Center as Nivelles direct superior would be easy to blame, especially since he is already on thin ice due to (unfairly) being seen as having led a incompetent defense of Verdun.
Joffre as Commander-in-Chief can be blamed as the person who appointed Nivelle, along with being blamed in general for every thing that goes wrong militarily as the highest ranking military officer. Although since he opposed this latest offensive he might be able to hang on.
Roques as War Minister and the one who approved the offensive (in writing!) and overruled Joffre is probably most likely going to be removed, he and Joffre are likely going to try to shove each other under the bus in order to save themselves (and Briand will likely want someone in Cabinet that is not him to be blamed in order to make people avoid blaming him).
And finally, if Maurice Sarrail is anywhere near the area he is likely to get blamed because if you need a scapegoat for a mutiny then, fair or not, a lot of people might look at the socialist.

In general, there is a lot of blame to go around along with people to take it (with different degrees of fairness). Some people losing their jobs might satisfy the public, and cool things down among the troops. But it will not solve the core issue that the common French soldier is starting to believe that the war is unwinnable and that the the only result of them fighting the Germans is that they will die, which creates a chance that they will mutiny every time they are ordered to go on the offensive and a chance that they will immediately break when the Germans launches offensives of their own.
 
I should mention that Nivelle will, in fact, fall during the coming update- the first man to take the blame for the Mutinies- and will take someone down with him…
Depending on how bad what will probably be called "The First Mutinity Crisis" is going to get, it wouldn't suprise me if the Prime Minister himself is the someone else.

Related observation: Even if it doesn't outright get France to ask for an armistice and bow out - we already know it wont after all - it might convince fence sitters to join the Central Powers. As well as convince Wall Street to be less generous when assessing the value of Entente Collateral for loans.
 
So, what are we thinking for France after the war? I think anything from a Communist revolution to restoration of the monarchy is possible. I have a hard time seeing the Third Republic survive the war, every major country that lost WW1 had a change of government or collapsed, and with France being the war's biggest loser ITTL I think they're gonna have a bumpy ride to say the least.
 
So, what are we thinking for France after the war? I think anything from a Communist revolution to restoration of the monarchy is possible. I have a hard time seeing the Third Republic survive the war, every major country that lost WW1 had a change of government or collapsed, and with France being the war's biggest loser ITTL I think they're gonna have a bumpy ride to say the least.
A Communist revolution is so cliché. Give me that sweet Monarchist restoration! The only choice is Orleanists since they are not tainted by defeat to the Germans. Bonapartists and Republicans have been discredited by the last 2 wars against Germany.
 
A Communist revolution is so cliché. Give me that sweet Monarchist restoration! The only choice is Orleanists since they are not tainted by defeat to the Germans. Bonapartists and Republicans have been discredited by the last 2 wars against Germany.
NO! France shall return to her rightful sovereigns, the legitimate House of Bourbon. The wretched legacy of 1789 shall be erased! VIVE LE ROI!
 
NO! France shall return to her rightful sovereigns, the legitimate House of Bourbon. The wretched legacy of 1789 shall be erased! VIVE LE ROI!

The problem is that on that claim, there are only two claimants standing between a France-Spain personal union, and neither have any children.
 
A Monarchist restoration would be fun to write and not as implausible as it sounds- it was seriously considered after 1871 and so many of the officers were Monarchists- but a lot of things would need to go right for that faction to win. One option would be for a French version of General Monck- a commander with Monarchist sympathies, relatively untainted by the disasters of 1916 and 1917- to pose as a defender against socialist revolution and place Prince Jean, Duke of Guise on the throne as a unifying figure behind his dictatorship. This becomes increasingly likely if Fascism doesn't take off on the same scale as OTL, which is in turn heavily contingent on whether the Bolsheviks seize power and menace Europe, as well as whether Mussolini has the support to take over Italy here. Germany would have to agree, at least tacitly, to such a thing though, and would want some leverage over the new dynasty. One way of obtaining this might be to marry Jean's son Henri, Count of Paris, to a Hohenzollern princess when he turns eighteen, if he isn't already. Thus will the crowns of Germany and France be reunited once more and the wrongful Treaty of Verdun revoked after eleven hundred years...

I am of course being facetious with that last bit, and I should add that this is by no means the most likely scenario: while a Russian-style revolution and civil war remain unlikely, the political currents in postwar France will tilt more towards left-wing pacifism and improving the domestic situation than militarism and revanche, especially after forty years of preparations led to such a great disaster.
 
That sounds like an improvement honestly beyond the normal slide into anarchism/communism that these things go in. Probably better for France in the long run.
 
“Commune Of France” is fun- I had a great time with alt-Red Paris versus alt-White Algiers in 1.0- but it’s also been done to death and relies on a forced comparison between France and Tsarist Russia, which were about as different as two European States could be in the time period. It won’t be Paradise by any means but it’ll be closer to Weimar Germany than Leninist Russia
 
“Commune Of France” is fun- I had a great time with alt-Red Paris versus alt-White Algiers in 1.0- but it’s also been done to death and relies on a forced comparison between France and Tsarist Russia, which were about as different as two European States could be in the time period. It won’t be Paradise by any means but it’ll be closer to Weimar Germany than Leninist Russia
Weimar seems like a fair comparison. The big question is whether the Fourth Republic would pull itself together and survive long term or fall like Weimar did IOTL. It's anyone's guess IMO.
 
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