Like the Snows of Yesteryear...
President Taft's 1914 State of the Union address talked of "peace and prosperity in our time", and promised that his administration's policies would be directed towards promoting those ends for the nation. As the thunderous applause in the halls of Congress died down, the grim execution of this promise lay but a few months away.
On 28 June, a group of Serbian nationalists carried out ill-planned and ill-conceived assassination in the streets of Sarjevo. Their target, Austro-Hungarian heir apparent Franz Ferdinand, was fatally shot that afternoon by the young Serb Gavrileau Princips. Austria's rapid mobilization to punish independent Serbia soon triggered a Russian mobilization. France soon followed, calling up reserves in preparation for a general European war.
Germany, the growing titan of central Europe mobilized in response to the threats against her ally Austria. Diplomatic efforts to halt the plunge towards war soon became mere token formalities given the nature of the revanchist regime in France, and as ultimatums were left unheeded a general state of war across the whole of Europe followed.
Germany soon invades the low countries as part of the later infamous Schlieffen Plan. Their aim is to move mass columns of troops across France's undefended Belgian border to outflank French static defenses, followed by a deep salient penetration to capture Paris and end the war in the west. The violation of Belgian neutrality provokes Britain to declare war on Germany. The Schlieffen Plan would also export this European war accross the Atlantic, to Canada and even the United States, which hitherto had always committed itself to general neutrality to European affairs.
According to the 1912 Toronto Treaty, passed in a closed session of the US Senate under President Fairbanks[1], the United States would stand in solidarity with the UK if ever the neutrality of a British ally is violated resulting in a state of invasion or occupation. While the clauses of this treaty allow the US to remain neutral in most possible European conflagrations, the language of the treaty clearly applies to the Belgian question. President Taft, in a speech to a joint session of Congress argues that the terms of the treaty make the US at a de facto state of war with the German Reich.
A resolution formalizing the state of war is soon passed by a razor-thin margin, with the Socialist/Progressives standing in firm opposition along with a few dissident members of the Democratic Party and the last remainder of the progressive wing of the Republican Party. While the US is now officially at war, the President, as well as leaders of both parties agree to leave the question of the American level of participation in the war up to the new Congress after the November election; a necessary compromise to ensure the passage of the resolution.
The Schlieffen Plan requires that the French military be committed elsewhere to ensure it's resolution. In a rare coincidence, French war planners oblige their German counterparts with General War Plan XVII. Under the mobilization scheme of the plan, the French military would concentrate on the narrow frontier between Germany and France and begin an assault into Alasce-Lorraine, under German occupation since 1871.
By the end of the year, neither France nor Germany succeeded in accomplishing their primary objectives. The Schlieffen Plan, for all of it's precision, was logistically impossible. In spite of the efforts of the best logisticians the world had to offer, there simply were not enough roads and rail to move troops and supplies fast enough to exploit the breach. Both sides had fundamentally underestimated the ferocity of modern warfare. When the lines stabilized in the Winter of 1914-5, both the French and the Germans had completely exhausted prewar ammunition stockpiles, especially for the increasingly vital artillery.
In spite of noted successes in the Lorraine campaign, French troops were by and large stuck back in the massive frontier fortifications. On the left flank of the growing trench line, the Germany military was camped uncomfortably close to Paris, and large portions of French industry were now in German hands.[2]
The days of wars decided by brilliant leaders and decisive battles were as dead as the one million soldiers killed in the Frontier battles. In spite of the stigma of incompetence given to WWI generals, both the Allies and the Central Powers displayed a level of professionalism in stark contrast to the experience of previous wars. It could even be argued that on the whole, both sides did the best they could with the resources they had.
[1] Prior to the Cold War, many American treaties were passed in closed Senate sessions. Any records kept of the debate is classified and not a part of the normal Congressional record. While the result of any such vote is a matter of public record, there is no roll call vote, so it is impossible to determine who supported and opposed the measure.
[2] Basically, exactly like IOTL, except that the US is officially part of the Allies in late 1914. The deployment of troops will not come until 1915.
Excerpt from The First World War: Imperial Games, by Albert E. Kahn, Progress Publishers, Cambridge, Mass, 1948.[1]
...unlike their European comrades in the Second International, the American socialists alone remained resolute in opposition to the imperial war brewing in Europe. However, their paltry influence in the halls of the bourgeois state were not enough, even with the help of defectors from the Democrats joining them in opposition. However, in spite of the enormous momentum towards plunging headlong into an age drowned in blood, the Socialist Party was able to maintain unity on this critical issue. Progressives like LaFollete Sr., stuck with the party and voted en bloc.
...A general agreement had been reached to leave the issue of mobilization until after the November Congressional elections. In spite of the bourgeois literature on the subject during the 20s and 30s, the American populace faced the thought of fighting and dying for their country with great fear. The general sense of foreboding was very clear at the polls in November. Voter turnout averaged 8.1% higher than would be expected in an off-year election of that era. Clearly the American state was facing a similar "excess of democracy" that President Wood decried in the mid 1920s. That excess would soon be remedied by the Espionage Acts.
...Eugene Debs remarked that "regardless of which faction of the capitalist party triumphs in the election, major American involvement in the European war is inevitable. J.P. Morgan and the other Robber Barons have already loaned huge sums to the British and French governments, and they will want it repaid in full." Had Grandfather Debs known the full scale of the loan scheme, I'm sure he would have stroked. In 1919 dollars, J.P. Morgan & Co. alone lent over one billion dollars to the Allies during the war. Other financial trusts lent comparable amounts. The First World War was big business before the first American soldier set foot in France.
...The midterm election left the Democrats with a weakened grip over the House of Representatives. By this campaign, northern Democrats had abandoned attempts to exploit class conflict to gain votes. While they retained the incumbents advantage in many districts, the eclipse of the Democratic party had begun. Forced to play second fiddle on the national stage, the party increasingly devoted itself to Southern sectionalism and the cultural conservatism that benefited the Southern landed gentray. It's brief flirtations with populism and liberalism were largely over with by the 1914 election. Democratic campaign literature largely focused upon national strength and cultural conservation, portraying the Republicans as dangerously individualistic, tearing apart American culture. In practice, they began behaving in much the same way as the Old Right in Europe, the monarchism replaced with a curious brand of Roman style republicanism.
...1914, on the eve of the greatest bloodletting yet seen in history, was also the climax of the old American Left.[2] Made up disproportionately of immigrant workers and, with the exception of Oklahoma, tied strongly to industrial cities in the east, the old Left would soon be in its twilight. While the First World War put the old Left to the sword across the world, at least in America the trials of war provided the necessary conditions for the birth of a new Left in the 20s and 30s, a Left unaffected by the split riven within European social democracy.
[1] IOTL, Albert E. Kahn was a journalist aligned to the Stalinist CPUSA until deStalinization crisis in 1956. ITTL, the extent of his journalism career are the opinion editorials that are syndicated in many American papers from the 40s to the 60s. By profession, he is a social historian.
[2] ITTL, "Old Left" is primarily used to describe worker's movements before WWI, and those parties after WWI that were unaffiliated with the Comintern. "New Left", by contrast, refers to parties and movements affiliated with the Comintern. Old Leftists accuse New Leftists of being authoritarian and often ambivalent to democracy (often true) while New Leftists accuse Old Leftists of being baby sitters to the problems of the national bourgeoisie and ineffective reformists (again, often true).
1914 Congressional Election
US House of Representatives
Democratic Party...................................200 (-74)
Republican Party....................................177 (+36)
Progressive/Socialist Party.......................57 (+39)
Independent..........................................1 (-1)
US Senate†
Democratic Party...................................46 (-5)
Republican Party....................................46 (+3)
Progressive/Socialist Party.......................4 (+2)
† US Senators are still selected primarily by state legislatures, though a few western states have adopted elections for their Senators.