Redirecting the ERE under Justinian?

[CandyDragon]

I was thinking about Justinian's reconquest of much of the Western Mediterranean, and how it gained the Empire little in the long run but prestige, and a scenario came to mind.

What if/Can Justinian redirect the resources deployed in the African, Sicilian, and Italian campaigns towards breaking the back of Persia? Is it even a feasible idea? Justinian had talented generals, and a treasury that he could haemorrhage all the money he wanted from into innumerable projects.

What if Justinian's Plague, as it is known now, hits Persia harder than it did OTL? Would that help the Romans that the Persians have been proportionately speaking, weakened?

 

[AStanley]

Africa was a good investment, resources are better spent there than in Persia.

However, if Italy was scraped I could see Justinian trying to expand his holding in the Caucasus via client states.

 

[Basileus Giorgios]

As I've said here before- the problem with Justinian's Western campaigns were that he spent too little money on them, not too much. Justinian invested far more in building forts in Syria and on subsidising the Ghassanid phylarchs than he did on crushing the Ostrogoths. The moment substantial resources were finally dedicated to the Italian war, at the beginning of the 550s, it was won quite quickly and easily.

Obviously, the plague badly hit the Empire- but I think the level of trauma could be exaggerated somewhat. While I wouldn't go as far as some historians do, and completely hand-wave its impact, it can't be denied that the Empire was fielding armies of a similar size and general competence in both the pre and post-plague periods, and that its tax base was clearly sufficient for the Emperor Tiberius II to be noted as an extravagant spender around 580, and for Maurice to launch a major expeditionary force to intervene in Sasanian politics in the 590s.

To have a better reign for Justinian, you really need to find a good way of toning down Iranian aggression. Having the Gothic war won quickly initially, perhaps by killing off Belisarius in the late 530s, could dissuade Khusro from attacking in the 540s, and, once the plague hits a couple of years later, both Empires will be struggling for some time. Have Khusro be killed by the plague, and the Sasanians struggle with dynastic problems, too.

 

[AStanley]

As I've said here before- the problem with Justinian's Western campaigns were that he spent too little money on them, not too much. Justinian invested far more in building forts in Syria and on subsidising the Ghassanid phylarchs than he did on crushing the Ostrogoths. The moment substantial resources were finally dedicated to the Italian war, at the beginning of the 550s, it was won quite quickly and easily.

Obviously, the plague badly hit the Empire- but I think the level of trauma could be exaggerated somewhat. While I wouldn't go as far as some historians do, and completely hand-wave its impact, it can't be denied that the Empire was fielding armies of a similar size and general competence in both the pre and post-plague periods, and that its tax base was clearly sufficient for the Emperor Tiberius II to be noted as an extravagant spender around 580, and for Maurice to launch a major expeditionary force to intervene in Sasanian politics in the 590s.

To have a better reign for Justinian, you really need to find a good way of toning down Iranian aggression. Having the Gothic war won quickly initially, perhaps by killing off Belisarius in the late 530s, could dissuade Khusro from attacking in the 540s, and, once the plague hits a couple of years later, both Empires will be struggling for some time. Have Khusro be killed by the plague, and the Sasanians struggle with dynastic problems, too.

Maybe Amalasuntha stays in power longer to the entire Gothic war is avoided since the Roman's have a loyal client?

 

[Basileus Giorgios]

Maybe Amalasuntha stays in power longer to the entire Gothic war is avoided since the Roman's have a loyal client?

Perhaps, though I'm sure if the war can be avoided forever- Arianism was a standing threat to the Emperor, and I think that sooner or later the Senate or the Patriarch of Rome will appeal for Constantinople's intervention in Italy for whatever reason. I think at a minimum it's likely the southern part of Italy and Sicily will be drawn back into the orbit of the Empire.