So if you weren't aware, /r/AskHistorians is one of the best communities on Reddit, mainly for their rules (and the moderators who actually enforce these rules). Anyways there's a private community for the flaired users in AskHistorians, and there's an interesting thread on the Europeans not showing up in the Americas (practically ASB, I know). To quote the main parts:
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OP (/u/Reedstilt)
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/u/CommodoreCoCo to OP
Reedstilt responds back:
(CoCo responded by saying that he just liked the word Mayapan so his POD is further back)
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/u/RioAbajo responds to OP
/u/Reedstilt responds back:
/u/RioAbajo responds back:
/u/Ucumu responds a bit later to Reedstilt:
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A different user asks
OP responds to that
RioAbajo responds to this
To which OP responds back
That's it, mostly. Thoughts?
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OP (/u/Reedstilt)
The what-if scenario of Europeans not colonizing the Americas pops up now and then on Reddit and it never tends to get a decent response. Originally I was going send a message to my fellow Americanists to see if we could put our collective heads together and come up with a potential scenario for what happens without Columbus, Cabot, Cartier, Cortes, etc. showing up on the scene. But since it's just as important to see what's going on Eurasia and Africa without Europeans colonizing the Americas, I figured I'd open this up to everyone.
I haven't gotten around to fully fleshing out the situation in the Eastern Woodlands, but here are some of the main points I'd like to focus on:
- Basque fishermen may still show up in Newfoundland and Nova Scotia. They don't have colonial intentions, but are instead focused on trading with the local Mi'kmaq and Beothuk communities. This beginnings the process of introducing technologies from Europe into the mix. Of course, if we can't have the Basque showing up with the Spanish Crown catching wind of new lands to add to their dominion, I suppose we can leave them in Europe too.
- The Wenro Crisis erupts into war between the Haudenosaunee and the Chonnonton, continuing the expansion the Chonnonton began when they earlier invaded the Mascouten.
- Since it doesn't suffer from introduced epidemics, Cofitachequi better able to weather the various droughts it experiences and continues the Mississippianization of East Coast.
- Who does Talisi pay tribute to? Coosa and Atahachi will have to settle that question, one way or another. Without de Soto getting in the way, Tuskaloosa probably makes the first move since the micco of Coosa was relatively young and inexperienced. It'll be tough going for Coosa early in the war, but they might win in the end if they can mobilize quickly enough.
On thing I'd like to avoid is having an alternate timeline that's too predictable. It'll need a healthy dose of radicals, introducing new inventions and new ideologies that keeps the same centuries-old institutions plodding along forever. I still need to work on that on my end.
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/u/CommodoreCoCo to OP
Let's see:
- Huayna Capac still dies eventually, and Atahualpa defeats his brother for the Spanish throne. The empire is unstable, but the conflict plays a similar role as did the Roman civil wars.
- Atahualpa asserts his control by strong assimilation policies. The forceful relocation of the troublesome Chachapoyas people has proven successful, so he adapts the same policy with conquered Chimu and Aymara populations in 1536. Enforced Quechua education wipes out Uru and Aymara- the last Aymara speaker dies in 1627. Chimu families are relocated to crucial resource extraction zones, such as Potosi's copper and tin mines. Aymara herders are dispersed across northern Peru.
- Atahualpa's son Macno Inca Yupanqi continues the integration efforts and furthers it with his emphasis on infrastructure. As conquered cities adapt to the new rule, he constructs "public" schools in each. These instruct appropriate manners of ethnic pride, such as unique apparel, veneration of local apus, and token cultural dishes, but instill a firm sense of Inca identity- Inca religion, language, and social organization. These schools also scout for the best candidates for government positions. Skilled children and taken from their family to specialized schools under the guise of a "fee" for the education. This contributes to a diverse, bureaucratic, authoritative meritocracy
- The Inca military heads further north in 1545. But the Chilean Mapuche to the Incas' south turn on the offensive around 1560. The Ecuadorian territories fall to Inca control, but are not assimilated as the others were. The Mapuche manage to regain some original territory, but they find it difficult to assault the Inca's planned infrastructure. A permanent garrison is placed on the southern border. Focus returns to the north in 1566, and modern Ecuador is completely in control by 1570. The Colombians prove difficult to conquer, but rarely provoke the far-ranging Inca military. In 1597, Musuq Capac orders the first successful coup in a Panamanian polity, establishing a central America puppet state.
- By 1580, strong trade connections have been established with the prosperous Mayapan kingdom, the first true pan-Yucatan state. This generates fast advances in metallurgy and other technologies. The trade fuels a prosperous period of Pax Incae. The empire absorbs its Panama holdings in 1621.
- In 1682, Mayapan falls to the rebranded Mexica empire, and the Inca lose crucial resources. In 1685, the Mapuche breach southern defenses and locals retreat to the Titicaca region. A neo-Aymara cult leader begins a revolutionary uprising based in the city of Tiwanaku. He calls the Inca subjects to recall their lost identities. A few key leaders in the Inca bureaucracy secretly back him, as they were one of many leaders forcefully taken from their homes during their teenage years. This sentiment takes hold with the Ecuadorians, who appropriate a Chimu identity and rally behind a "Restore Chan Chan" slogan. The Chimu capital had since become a breeding ground for mercenaries and illicit varieties of coca. The Inca navy is able to blockade these two factions and they are unable to successfully coordinate. Nevertheless, they manage to independently separate themselves from functional Inca rule.
- The Inca military successfully reincorpoates the North in 1697. The neo-Aymara state remains indepdent and slightly amicable for the forseeable future.
- Meanwhile Spain is torn by provinicalism and gets its butt kicked by everyone.
Reedstilt responds back:
But how will Spain fall to provincialism under Atahualpa's steadfast imperialistic leadership?Atahualpa defeats his brother for the Spanish throne.
An Inca push into Colombia could in-spite-of-a-nail the migration of Chibchan-speaking peoples into Panama, and I could definitely see the Muisca Confederation being an early target for Inca imperialist expansion after they solidify control over Ecuador.
I'm a bit surprised to see the League of Mayapan up and running again, and apparently more centralized than ever. Luckily it looks like the Mexica fix that paradox within a century or so. Apparently the Immutable Forces of Time really want independent Maya kingdoms out of the picture by 1700.
I do really like the idea of a neo-Aymara revival, mainly because that's the sort of unpredictable game-changer that keeps things interesting. Though I have to question why rebellious Ecuadorians who weren't assimilated by force would co-opt a Chimu identity, rather than dissatisfied northern Peruvians who had had their Chimu identity beaten out of them co-opting some other identity to replace what was stolen from them by their imperial overlords.
(CoCo responded by saying that he just liked the word Mayapan so his POD is further back)
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/u/RioAbajo responds to OP
This is actually very difficult given how well-trained I am to have violent physical reaction to speculative history, but I'll give it a go. Incidentally, this really shouldn't be as difficult as it is given that my dissertation is on the ways in which social organization in the couple centuries before contact profoundly impacted the first century of Spanish colonialism in the Southwest.
There are two big things that characterize the late pre-contact period in the Southwest that would have to be taken into consideration. First, after AD1275, the overall contraction of the Southwestern "world" in terms of population size, depopulation of certain regions, massive migration, and the decline in long-distance relationships.
Secondly, consequent to the first point, you get the creation of dense, aggregated and multi-ethnic and multi-linguistic communities which sees an increase in novel religious expressions like the Salado and Kachina cults probably to help create community solidarity in these large heterogenous communities.
- In the Pueblo world the religious experimentation and formalization of the 14th and 15th century continue well into the 16th and 17th centuries creating a nascent sense of pan-Pueblo identity while simultaneously reinforcing regional differences into increasingly distinct ethnicities and other identities. The tension of distinct regional identities makes a pan-Pueblo political system unfeasible, but temporary or small-scale cooperation increases..
- The movement of Athabaskan peoples into the Four Corners, Mogollon Rim, and Western Plains means that these previously occupied regions are never reoccupied by sedentary agricultural people - the regional contraction of the 14th century are never reversed even as populations begin to recover and grow more dense locally. Hostile interactions between Athabaskan people and sedentary agriculturalists are much lessened without the introduction of the horse but pressure from these nomadic groups helps reinforce whatever nascent pan-Pueblo identity already exists along the Rio Grande and upper Colorado.
- In the middle of the 16th century the internal tensions in Pueblo society between private ritual life and community-wide ceremony lead to internal conflict within communities about restrictions on ritual knowledge and what constitutes "orthodoxy". The society leaders look down on kachina ritual which serves as the primary form of ritual expression among non-religious specialists. Events like the purging of pro-Spanish supporters at the village of Awatovi or the split at Oraibi (in our timeline) occurred with increasing frequency, usually directed towards non religious specialists. However, by the end of the century Pueblo social organization has drifted towards a more egalitarian distribution of religious duties and participation and away from secret societies - Kachina ritual becomes the primary form of religious expression and Kachina spirits become increasingly standardized between communities due to closer inter-community relationships.
- In southern Arizona/northern Sonora the Hohokam almost completely disappear archaeologically (if not as a people) by about 1400-1450. The collapse of nascent centralized and hierarchical government in the late 1200's and 1300's (the wars against the "Big Houses" and tyrannical chiefs) means the immediate tendency would be the shy away from large villages and other forms of hierarchy. However, the movement of Athabaskan peoples into the Mogollon Rim and of semi-nomadic groups in northern Mexico into northern Sonora means that competition for resources and periodic raiding necessitate a return to some form of "Great House" social structure, if on a much smaller scale, as a form of defense.
- Despite being a constant threat, nomadic groups along the periphery of the sedentary agricultural groups are much less a threat without the introduction of horses. Consequently, some of the long-distance trading relationships that dissolved in the centuries of turmoil following 1275 start forming again in the 16th century, linking southern Arizona and the Pueblo world together as well as resuscitating trade relationships with other north Mexican groups for prestige items like macaw feathers. The increasingly centralized control of central Mexico by the Triple Alliance means trade routes into northern Mexico are more and more viable. Southwest turquoise flows south in quantities larger than at any point in the past to furnish the explosion of ritual paraphernalia (especially macaws) related to the increased public control of and participation in ceremony and ritual.
Edit: I would also love to knit-together the Missisippian world with the Southwest, even in some tangential way. Without horses the plains remain a significant barrier, but the increasing movement of people into the southern Plains might facilitate some sort of contact.
/u/Reedstilt responds back:
Glad you could fight through it.This is actually very difficult given how well-trained I am to have violent physical reaction to speculative history, but I'll give it a go.
I don't think I'm familiar with the Salado; at least, the name isn't sparking any memories? What sort of question do I need to ask in the main subreddit to get an explanation?the Salado and Kachina cults
Any thoughts likelihood of the incoming Athabaskans taking a "if you can't beat them, join them" stance one Pueblo society with the absence of the horse? Might we see some Diné or Indeh pueblos in this timeline? Any chances of an eastward expansion of the Pueblo world. Without suffering from mounted raids, I imagine Pecos Pueblo would still be around so the eastern Pueblo "frontier" doesn't collapse. Could additional pueblos be established along the Canadian and Pecos River?Despite being a constant threat, nomadic groups along the periphery of the sedentary agricultural groups are much less a threat without the introduction of horses.
With trade routes linking the Pueblo region to Mesoamerica again and a resurgence of "Great House" culture in northern Mexico, any thoughts on what might happen at La Junta? Does it stand to benefit from these new trade routes or are they going to be bypassing it for more westerly routes?trade routes into northern Mexico are more and more viable.
This is the main reason I've been asking about eastern pueblos and La Junta. It won't take much to increase trade interactions between the two areas. Though once the Mississippians get actual cotton plants rather than cotton cloth from the Pueblo, that'll be one less thing they'll need to import. Though those macaw feathers will help fill the void left by cotton. Meanwhile, I hope the Pueblo continue to enjoy yaupon tea with their Mesoamerican chocolate and fine bowwood bows.I would also love to knit-together the Missisippian world with the Southwest, even in some tangential way. Without horses the plains remain a significant barrier, but the increasing movement of people into the southern Plains might facilitate some sort of contact.
Also we need to get /u/Ucumu in here to weigh in on how the Purepecha might profit from these trade routes to northern Mexico and beyond.
/u/RioAbajo responds back:
Something like "How did Pueblo religion change in the 14th century due to outmigration from the Colorado Plateau?".I don't think I'm familiar with the Salado; at least, the name isn't sparking any memories? What sort of question do I need to ask in the main subreddit to get an explanation?
Salado is really interesting. It is almost entirely based on decorated pottery (Salado Polychromes), so cult might be a bit charitable (but I borrow it from Patty Crown). Think of it like Mesoamerican religion-lite imported to the Southwest. The other really interesting part is how closely associated it is with these large, multi-ethnic communities and how it cuts across traditional "culture areas", showing up in southern Arizona, on the Mogollon Rim, and in the Pueblo area.
This is a really strong possibility. Without the introduction of sheep and horses, a pastoral/nomadic lifestyle is much less viable in these areas and you might very well get some "Pueblos" forming out of these groups.Any thoughts likelihood of the incoming Athabaskans taking a "if you can't beat them, join them" stance one Pueblo society with the absence of the horse? Might we see some Diné or Indeh pueblos in this timeline?
The other big one is I'm not sure you even get Dine forming as a distinct identity without the Spanish. There are clearly some differences between Apache groups even before the Spanish, but I think without the introduction of European herd animals and the political/economic dynamic created by Spanish colonization those differences might not result in ethnogenesis, or at least not as swiftly as it did happen. Likewise with a distinct "Apache" identity. I imagine there would be some sort of distinct identities forming through the 17th century, but if they would split along the Navajo/Apache line and have the same characteristics, I sort of doubt.
Definitely. Without the Spanish, that Pueblo "frontier" is even more robust with the Salinas/Jumanos Pueblos sticking around as well as Tijeras Pueblo. I could maybe see some fissioning of Pecos Pueblo during the religious conflict of the 17th century resulting in new Pueblos down the length of the Pecos river. Definitely would strengthen the possibility of connection with the Mississippian world.Without suffering from mounted raids, I imagine Pecos Pueblo would still be around so the eastern Pueblo "frontier" doesn't collapse. Could additional pueblos be established along the Canadian and Pecos River?
Definitely. I can also see some importation of Southwestern obsidian as a possibility. Copper and coppersmithing is another potential import from both West Mexico and the East. Perhaps this influences southern plains groups to adopt a more intermediary position, trading bison both east and west and acting as middle men taking macaw feathers, cotton, turquoise, and obsidian east and bringing back copper, yaupon, and special woods.t won't take much to increase trade interactions between the two areas. Though once the Mississippians get actual cotton plants rather than cotton cloth from the Pueblo, that'll be one less thing they'll need to import. Though those macaw feathers will help fill the void left by cotton. Meanwhile, I hope the Pueblo continue to enjoy yaupon tea with their Mesoamerican chocolate and fine bowwood bows.
On that note, the La Junta area might get drawn into that same system as the intermediaries with Mesoamerica. You might end up with distinct trade routes, those up the Pacific coast and those up the Gulf side ending in south Texas and then up the Rio Grande to the Pueblo area or out to the Plains and then up the Pecos/through the Salinas.
/u/Ucumu responds a bit later to Reedstilt:
I'm sad I missed this thread.
Assuming things continued the way they were, I think the Mexica would have exerted more control over the Triple Alliance (to the point where we can actually call it the Mexica Empire), and they would have continued their strategy of encircling the P'urépecha while avoiding direct military invasion. I could potentially see a situation where the Kingdom of Tzintzuntzan became the new (albeit much larger) Tlaxcala, an independent enclave within a larger Aztec state. On the other hand, if they chose to start expanding again, they would probably target Zacatula and Colima to the west. Zacatula had already been part of the empire, but defected to the Aztecs. Shortly before European arrival, it had broken away from Aztec control. The P'urépecha could have used that opportunity to reassert their control on the Pacific, possibly targeting Colima in a subsequent war. If that happened they would have their back to the Pacific and could have more easily resisted Aztec encroachement. If there were greater trade with the North then the P'urépecha would have had better access to tin (with the only viable source being in Zacatecas), and could have had more bronze. Although I doubt they would have switched to bronze weaponry as a result. It still would have been expensive. Since they relied on bows and arrows, it would have been a huge waste to shoot bronze at their enemies when obsidian works just fine.
EDIT: Also, if /u/CommodoreCoCO's scenario of the Inca expanding into lower Central America happens, then at some point Central Mexicans need to get llamas. The Central Mexican Plateau is probably one of the few other locations in the Americas were llamas would be well suited. It would be interesting to see what the introduction of llama caravans would do to trade and military organization.
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A different user asks
Hmmm, very interesting.
I do wonder if the Inca and the Triple Alliance would continue to expand, if they would ever actually interact with any regularity, and what the repercussions would be. What would those empires look like with a couple more centuries of development?
I'll puzzle this over more tonight, because this is a fun exercise.
OP responds to that
The oncoming Little Ice Age is going to force Ecuadorian shell merchants further north again into the tropical waters off Central America in order to acquire certain species of spondylus and other tropical shells. So that potentially could fuel contact between the two empires, if the Triple Alliance continues to solidify its hold on Guatemala through Q'umarkaj (though it's next big push will likely be from Q'umarkaj into the Yucatan, rather than continuing further south).
Now, without smallpox going around, Huayna Capac isn't likely to die nearly as early as he did, but I wonder how likely he is to split the empire between his kids and end up causing the Inca civil war regardless.
RioAbajo responds to this
The big problem there is solving the Pacific currents, right? As I understand, the coastal currents all strongly flow northwards and then out very far to sea before turning south again. What sort of techniques or technology do the Andeans develop to make the return voyage reliably?
To which OP responds back
According simulations done by Richard Callaghan, the return voyage could be done in as little as 3-4 months, if the sailors left west Mexico in April and were willing to swing fairly widely out to sea for two months. An alternative 5-month route stayed closer to the coast for the most part, but swung out to sea for a week at a time away from the Guatemalan coast, then again between the Gulf of Fonseca and the Gulf of Nicoya.
Establishing permanent settlements in the Galapapos Islands and on Cocos Island might help with the shorter open-ocean route. Though we might need other techniques and technologies to make those voyages reliable (there's some scant evidence to suggest that pre-Columbian Ecuadorian sailors were reaching the Galapagos Islands occassionally). Emphasizing the semi-coastal route is probably better. While longer, it gives these merchants a chance to keep trading along the way.
Another alternative is the keep expanding the Inca north until they conquer the the Tairona, giving them access to Caribbean routes to Mesoamerica and Central America.
That's it, mostly. Thoughts?
