Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: After 1900' started by Forbiddenparadise64, Apr 25, 2016.
Just a warning- I will be on holiday for a week at least wig little to no internet access so it'll be a while before the updates. Hope all holds well for everyOne. If anyone wants to make suggestions or speculations, feel free to either discuss here or PM mr at any time
I wonder who the analogue for Nazi Germany is. The US? Britain? France?
I say France.
But then what would Japan have to gain from victory in an alternate ww2? Surely Siberia isn't enough for Japan’s conquest spree--I mean spreading the glorious workers revolution.
I'm at a real conflict here as a Korean leftist. Am I supposed to feel good about the spread of Communism? Or am I supposed to criticize this sorta-alt Japanese Empire growth?
This Japan is not as brutal as OTL Japan but Korea is like Poland, stuck between two giants that hate each other.
It could actually be interesting - not in this TL, but just occurred to me since we're talking about hostile wars between great powers - for a global war in East Asia scenario that skips the Korean peninsula. I.e. Netherlands in WWI or Spain in WWII. Again, just a thought.
Don't worry the Korean communists are not by any means the Kim dynasty or even Leninist, and there are plenty of Korean movements who hope for democracy. Japanese support will help modernise the nation in future while allowing it to function as its own nation, so it's no puppet state. Anyway this next post should answer your questions:
Sullivan, Post-War France; The Road to Recovery and Revenge, 2011
The period following the war was certainly a turbulent one by any measure in France, where the old establishment was utterly discredited and humiliated by one of the harshest treaties in French history, even more so than the Napoleonic Wars and Franco-Prussian conflict. They had gained a colony or two in Africa admittedly, but they had lost even more land in Europe to both Germany and now Spain, had major reparations forced upon them, and were made to cut alliances with the British, at least officially. Unlike with Germany, France had arguably more to lose from the war, since they had already lost multiple wars in the past, being humiliated as a result. The state of the economy meant that to pay the 21 billion mark loan would take all the way up into the 1960s, if not the 70s to complete, and this would be something of significant difficulty to achieve, especially in the long term. With France in such a devastated position, it would be necessary for the nation to make dramatic changes in order to cope. The first way this would be established would be the removal of the old wartime government. In the form of the resignation of President Armand Fallieres and Prime Minister Georges Clemenceau, who had both been in the charge of the nation during the war and the period before it. With the old rulers resigned, and many in the military establishment humiliated, this would lead to a problematic situation. Following their joint resignation on the 1st of March 1914, just days after the Treaty was established, there were riots in the streets from many sources, with dozens killed, and hundreds, possibly thousands injured in the process on both sides of the fence, military and civilian. The French Spring lasted for over two months, and included two major uprisings within, one anarchist and the other an outright coup attempt. This needed even more drastic action to cope with.
Following these terrible riots, the solution was the end of the Third Republic and the beginning of martial law, which would carry on indefinitely until the time was considered right to establish a successful democracy This new military phase would be handled under the guidance of former Field Marshall and now President Philippe Petain, a war veteran of considerable respect who was certainly one of the most competent generals during the war, and was certainly disappointed with his government's decisions to surrender. However, many in the population blamed such people as him for the losses, with many not taking into account the fact France had fought a war on two fronts, thus making victory far more difficult to achieve. The military government would stay in power for more than five years post-war, only ending in December 1919. In the meantime, the nation went through some turmoil, with multiple attempted revolutions and even a short civil war being sparked in this period of time, thus prolonging the military regime. The nature of this period gave it the nickname of the 'Clouded Times' for its sheer chaotic impact on the nation, something which would not only damage the economy further, but also the civilian mindset, and would open the way for the the rise of extremism.
The most infamous of these times were during attempted coups and even an outright civil war between a major faction. Immediately after the war ended in Europe in January 1914, there was an attempted uprising outside Paris by the organisation known as the Nouveau Francais, led by Henri Vaugeois, a Legitimist reactionary group hoping to overthrow the old Third and later Fourth Republics and replace it with a conservative Bourbon monarchy, along with a revival of Catholicism as a state religion. However, the NF uprising ended up as a disaster due to the lack of initial organisation, and while the city of Paris and a large portion of the outer Paris region was under their control, the government managed to crush them, with Vaugeois getting killed by a group of leftists who had decided to help the government at this. His followers continued their aims of xenophobia, anti-semitism and anti-government activity on a more discrete level, as unfortunately Vaugeois was merely a figurehead and not the true mastermind behind the organisation. The group would plague French politics right up till and even beyond the Second Great War in a reduced form, though they would never get their aim of Bourbon restoration to light, at least not in the way they had hoped.
The internal divisions of the new republic made things difficult as it was not an easy job determining a new path for the nation. The old republic had clearly failed, and of course even the military admitted this, which had been what caused them to seize control in the first place, in the hope their more competent and militant approach would get the job done. To their fears, more rebellions would occur. The Communards, a group of Marxists inspired by the Japanese and the original French revolutionaries planned to rebel and to form a second Paris Commune, but the conspiracy was broken up before it could start on June 1916. In November the same year, a mutiny in Brittany caused major crisis and lead to increased militarisation and even a standoff with the Royal Navy, which was quickly resolved. Breton separatism started to grow more from this point onwards, though the Breton movement would of course be divided in their interests, reducing their effectiveness as a political force. The Normandy riots were similarly a time of strife, going on from December into the following March, inspired by the increases in both living and business taxes, while also not being allowed to raise the prices of their products to compensate, or at least as not as much as they had hoped to be possible. In Corsica, a number of local politicians, even without including separatists, envied the situation in neutral Italy which had stayed out of the war and as a result was stable economically, establishing solid ties with both Germany, Britain and the increasingly unstable Ottomans, while profiting from all. France overall did remain on decent ties with that nation, but continual envy would strain mutual relations.
Not only were there uprisings in mainland France, but the colonies had their share of troubles during the 'Clouded Times' as well. The closest colony to France both physically and culturally was Algeria, who was one of the most stable around the coasts, but inland issues arose with the problem of nativists. The economic woes in the mainland lead to increased taxes and rations in the colonies, and nowhere was this worse felt than the already harsh deserts, where the Tuaregs came to raiding French colonial settlements in hope of leaving the system. They wished to form their own sizeable nation containing large portions of French Algeria, Chad and Niger, as well as parts of Italy's Tripolitania. While some in the colonial establishment were friendly to this idea, such an independent nation would not only more or less cut off France from her other African colonies, but encourage further rebellions, leading to French Africa falling out of their hands. As a result, a ruthless campaign was fought by the Colonial military to put down this uprising and make sure the nation would return to success. Other lesser rebellions took place in Sub-Saharan Africa as a result of this, with the French Congo being the source of its own particular insurrection of anti-colonial forces, secretly backed by the Germans and Turkish.
However, by far the worst and most successful of these anti-colonial rebellions took place in Indochina. Some minor uprisings were planned in scale by disorganised forces, but the most powerful ones are those who came in league with the Marxists of Japan and those underground in France. While many of these did not buy that much into the genuine message of communism and throwing off workers, they found such rhetoric useful in deposing of the French rulers and obtaining foreign support. During France's civil war, which was itself a conflict against communism, the powers found their opportunity and took it for organised rebellion, as many colonials went home to protect the Motherland. While some division did exist for the most part among groups, the communists were certainly one of the strongest, especially in the largest of the Indochinese nations, Vietnam, which liberated itself around October 1918 and almost immediately established good relations with Japan, who invested in the region to promote its own economy as well as 'the Revolution.' Laos, Cochinchina, Cambodia and other such regions and ethnic groups were more divided in the way they would deal with the situation. Cambodia in particular became a hotspot. There were quite a few reactionaries within the region, promoted more under French colonialism, while the left-wingers there tended to be dominated more by anarchists than communists, particularly among the Cham and Vietnamese minorities, with the latter wishing to distance themselves from the Communists. As a result, Cambodia's war lasted longer than the rest of Indochina and led to the country being partitioned between an Imperialistic West, an anarchist south-east with self-rule granted to the Cham, and a semi-anarchistic 'Free Vietnam'. Laos had its own situation with regards to easily being the most ethnically diverse nation in the region, including a sizeable Chinese minority wishing to build their own nation of Luang instead of taking part. The political division between pro-French, monarchists, communists, nationalists, anarchists and other groups was also strong. The solution was created by organising the nation into a Federation, with autonomy granted to all the ethnic minorities and full political freedom. Despite not being communist, the sizeable communist faction combined with Realpolitik requirements made the nation wish to side with Japan. With Vietnam and Laos cosying up yo Japan, the Cambodians partially leaned towards the anarchists of Nauru and partially towards the Dutch, who hoped to prop up the monarchists for the sake of stability, a move supported by the British and Siamese.
But it the worst of them all was another communist attempt at rebellion starting in the south of the country. This was far bigger on scale and more organised than the first, starting in July 1917, and started spreading across southern France. But it was not limited to there, as there was also a third Paris commune emerging from local communist groups there. The French Civil War was not far off the Japanese one in its intensity, lasting for more than 18 months as the military regime tried to crush them. Fortunately, the Communards had no foreign support bar from the Japanese, who mainly tried to sponsor to try a similar insurrection in Indochina and the Pacific. Even Nauru's anarchists attempted to get involved and promote anarchism in the region. However, many in Europe thought communism shouldn't be allowed a foothold in Europe and could be dangerous in a revanchist France. Spain and Germany had particular support to the government, even offering to reduce its repetitions by 25% in exchange for security in a pro-German situation, to which the French government reluctantly accepted. Actual German Military intervention only took place in the last few months though, when the war was already won by the establishment, with March-April 1919 being when the last major communard outposts being eliminated. The damage of the war would take several years to recover from, with over 100,000 perishing and a couple million injured. The ways in which the military responded following the war was to increase security measurements and anti-communist rhetoric to discourage such things from happening again. Of partial success, recovery was relatively quick psychologically as the military implemented increases in worker welfare, while the country began to strengthen ties with the Russian democratic regime. Encourages from St Petersburg meant the military regime started to prepare the way for a return to democracy. It was in December the the Clouded Period finally ended and democracy returned to France in the form of the Fourth Republic.
France's next phase of existence would be much more stable overall while not being as eventful, at least on the surface. The Radical party, a group of liberals were the primary rulers of France during this democratic period, reeling over the losses of Indochina while being optimistic about the future of the nation. Their main opposition was Frances socialist party, which made great effort to differentiate itself from from the Communards, as well as the Traditionale, a conservative centre-right group hoping to have a more traditional approach and appreciate France's history. The economy was certainly in a better position at this point during or immediately after the war, but it wasn't perfect and the right took an increase in power while the far left were increasingly discredited after losing the civil war. These nationalists were angry at the government for allowing the nation to be defeated by the Allies, the communists for nearly destroying the nation, and the Japanese for inspiring the revolutionaries and taking Indochina from them. There was also an element of white supremacy and anti-Semitism present among these groups. One new group that arose in this period was the French Social Action Party, led by François de La Rocque ,a former colonel who saw the path of the nation to be to reintegrate the nation around an organised, patriotic leadership with corporatist elements. While a personal opponent of anti-Semitism, many average followers and even members of his cabinet were in favour of this point. France's defeat led to a feeling of humiliation and desire for revenge which would need to be taken. This would involve the restoration of all lost French territory. This didn't just include the pre Franco-Prussian borders, but a Rhineland border, occupation of Belgium and Luxembourg, and even acquiring the French speaking regions of Switzerland. The reestablishment of a Napoleonic system under French hegemony would be of great use, with an alliance with Russia considered paramount, particularly Wrangel's own party in that nation. The party's popularity and appeal quickly led to a rise in numbers and the establishment of a paramilitary force known as the 'Black Cross'. While relatively weak at this point, this would symbolise the future and development of the nation.
France had survived a major war and a civil war now, and it's future appeared much brighter as democracy prevailed. But the nations future was is the hands of its people, and with radicalism on the rise, it and the world would need to change more to survive.
 An alternate name for a slightly different version of Action Francaise, as the otl name was butterflied away.
 The Tuaregs were mainly of the monarchist and tribalism camp in favour of confederation, thus alienating socialist backing, but allowing more effective funding from Berlin, which wished to further undermine French positions, while maintaining friendly relations at face value.
 Of course the Red Scare is not nearly as big as in otl due to being further away from Europe and in a smaller nation than Russia. However Japan's threat to Europe's colonies, as well as with the danger of France allowing communism to appear in their home yard, which could be devastating economically, or at least that's what they thought it would.
 Of course losing the war and having a civil war against communists made him significantly more radical and militant than in OTL, leading to some more ruthless policies as a result. The wish to challenge Germany hegemony was also unquestionably strong at this point.
Pics will be added later hopefully
With French Indochina and Japan gone, there's only a small opening for Western merchant ships to come to China; the surrounding "free ports" have just multiplied in significance. I fear strong intervention from the West against the Communist world...
Things are not looking good for anyone on the planet right now... Except the Germans, of course.
Just one nitpick; the TL clearly diverges well after the rise and fall of the Second Empire, and the Second Empire required the OTL Second Republic of 1848-early 1850s when Louis Bonaparte formally swept it aside. The First Republic was from 1789 to the original Napoleon Bonaparte abolishing it, the Second swept aside the Orleanist monarchy in the wave of 1848 revolutions across Europe. OTL and presumably here too, the Third Republic was established after the flight of Louis Bonaparte, under Prussian-alliance guns, and against the Paris Commune in 1871. To be sure, it might not have remained a Republic even as briefly as the Second one, with several monarchist/dictatorial options, but it would seem in this TL as well as OTL, the bourgeois Republic did prevail, and got itself into a somewhat earlier than OTL Great War with Germany which unlike OTL it loses, thus the 3rd Republic is terminated after well under half a century. The new republic that will follow the period of military dictatorship would be the Fourth.
Considering that by the early 60s France OTL was already onto the (current) Fifth Republic, ATL France is not markedly worse off in this respect than OTL. In other respects of course it is a mess!
I don't see any way to retro-butterfly the OTL brief Second Republic of the mid-19th century away here, so I'd respectfully suggest an edit, since you only mention the impossible number sequence of the Republic that loses the Great War just this once.
Thanks guys, and I've decided the next country to cover will be Turkey, which isn't doing too well atm. In terms of atmosphere, think a worse version of OTL Italy after the war (i.e. They lost several iconic areas rather than having a disappointing victory despite being on the victorious side).
Well, I guess that means Fascism will come to Istanbul.
I browsed through the thread and I admit I can't see some things happening:
1) why would the Chinese (of any faction) enlist the support of "Western devils"?
2) I can totally see a neighboring country propping up the Qing faction earlier and more successfully
3) I completely cannot see the Japanese all but getting rid of the Emperor. No. Nope. Not after a thousand of years being ruled by the same Imperial family. See how much it took in 1946 for the Japanese to stop seeing the Emperor as divine.
Could we see China in a later update too?
Yep you will. Oh and an update is in the works
Here's Turkey (1915-1923) sorry it's brief but it's somethings at least. RL is pretty distracting after all.
Abdullah Khorizem,Turkey in the 20th century,2006. pp.34-36
One of the most betrayed and humiliated nations of the Great War was The Ottoman Empire. They had fought a long and hard war, and while on the same side as the Germans, had lost significant amounts of territory, including the three holy cities to the British, as well as southern Iraq and a large portion of their Shia population. This, combined with some small reparations to London and a lack of support from a recovering Germany left Turkey and its empire in an embarrassing and precarious situation as the nation hoped to change in response to this event. While not facing outright collapse, it put the region in the position of one of the worst possible pieces: one harsh enough to make people want revenge, yet leave them strong enough to go and take it. This would have consequences that would affect the entire region.
In the wake of the war, one of the most popular moves done was to further the democratic reforms that had been done under the Young Turks in order to make sure that the nation would be able to better organise itself in the face of struggle, particularly on the internal front. The people in charge of this movement were the popular Commitee of Union and Progress, under the three Peshas, who hoped to help modernise Turkey along the lines of their enemies the United Kingdom, with te hope they could challenge its authority eventually, even if in a diplomatic sense. It was also an attempt to copy the movements done by its ally Germany, though this system of alliance began to deteriorate following the British victory in the Middle East. The Great War was not a complete central victory as had been promised, and the war was certainly not 'over by Christmas' as promised either. In fact, they had lost the region of Hejaz, and thus the Holy Cities of Mecca and Medina. While not a part of the peace treaty, this along with the loss of Jerusalem forced them to renounce the title of Caliphate. The loss of southern Shia Mesopotamia was less damaging, though it did cut them off from the Persian gulf and thus oil there. With the upheaval, the nation of the Turks was facing new threats and consequences they had simply not faced before, but could not help as a new future was on its way before anyone could deal with it.
Kemal Ataturk, a former respected general within the Ottoman army, saw disatisfaction in the regime. For him, the transition to a democratic monarchy was not enough, but the formation of a republic. He argued the Ottoman dynasty was holding back the nation into pre-modernity, and thus removing them from power would help the nation move to a new state of being, one stronger and more powerful than before. While not explicitly a socialist, he had support from a number of socialists in the establishment and out of it, along with other groups which supported republican tendencies. The only major republican faction to not back him was the communists, who argued for a system similar to that of Japan to be established in the wake of the new century. The nation's evolution of government and politics over this period became quite dramatic as a result of such pressures from the left, and soon from the right as well.
As the Sultan began to reform the country following the war, he found local people's were not as receptive to his command. The worst examples were the Kurds, Armenians and Arabs, but smaller ones also took part. The result was an increase in federalisation through 1917's People's Act, done to reduce ethnic and cultural tensions. While with success, it was not the complete solution to such issues, and they would indeed pop up once again. Turkey's Armenians and Pontic Greeks recovers financial funding and ties to Russia, hoping for a better life under St. Petersburg's influence, but the general Turkish folk were not happy with Russian looming. Eventually, after negotiations, 1918-1919 saw a renewal in Russo-Turkish relations as both governments became more democratic, allowing the way for cooperation between the two. This diplomatic development helped profoundly impact politics in the middle east. The Peshas certainly adopted panturkic elements to their beliefs, and tried to blur out the differences between ethnicities, cultures and languages to form a united Ottoman State, while also curbing feelings of Arab nationalism. While Pan-Turkism was of course a major factor within small and larger parties, including the CUP, the issues of revanchism and the reformation of the Caliphate were bigger priorities for now, and so temporary cooperation with Russia would be considered a must on a general scale, with the exception of particularly vocal minorities.
One such was the individual known as Ahmed Turkomen, almost certainly a pseudonym, who desired the reversals of both the democratic trends of the Young Turks and Ataturk's republican secularism. The nation had not done as badly as it could have, merely had a bloodied nose, and revenge would be necessary on those who had wronged it in his eyes. He was against the secularisation of Ottoman society by republicans and Young Turks, and instead supposed a system where Islamic law would work in coordination with a powerful military and nationalistic rhetoric, with a Caliph Sultan leading the religious element while a demagogue would dominate the parliament to ensure the Sultan kept on line. One of his aims was to establish unquestionable dominance of the Turkic people to recreate the glory days the Ottoman Empire had once had. Not only this, but they would expand further into areas that the old empire had merely desired, such as Arabia, Central Asia and even places as far away as Austria. The British may have taken much of their territory but it was their supposed ally Germany who abandoned them for its own agenda, and they equally deserved punishment for this 'betrayal'. His writings, often full of anti-Christian and anti-Semitic propaganda, alongside demonisation of Europeans, priced popula among the peoples, leading to the formation of the National Restorationist Party, who would continue to influence the young nation as it developed.
As well as the far right, the far left had a go at trying to secure power and authority. An attempt to cede an independent Kurdistan under communist influence took place in the summer of 1918, and while the Kurdish fought intensely, the attempted rebellion was put down by the Spring of 1919, being far from successful overall. The long term implications of this though allowed a link between the Far Left and Kurdish nationalism to be formed, resulting in the formation of the Kurdish Workers Party in 1922. The party was a minority one but became fairly prevalent later on. Competition between it and Turkomen's lot became quite intense in the Turkish areas of Kurdistan's claims, and even within the region, plenty of divisions existed within the independence parties. As the nation was not allowed to gain independence, this took wind from the sails of the other secessionists and thus prevented Turkey from undergoing complete collapse.
The National Restorationists gained great support compared to the failing Young Turks and Ataturk's republicans, with intense political competition taking place. While an election was planned for 1924, unrest made this a non factor. Protests and military uprisings in Istanbul became commonplace throughout the early 1920s, but things truly came under scrutiny in 1923, as the Constantine Shift happened. An attempted rebellion by communists decimated the cities military and lead to revolution becoming closer than ever. It was only due to the actions of NR that a communist revolution in the city was averted. This, the incompetence of the Peshas and the threatening presence of the party prompted the Sultan to appoint Turkomen as Grand Visier or Prime Minister of the Empire, as they were the only military that was content to let him rule. Turkomen at first kept within democratic standards established, but soon things began to change. Measures of ensuring socialists were suppressed and soon outright banned took place, and soon all opposition was silenced officially for 'stability of the empire.' Turkey was on its way to modernising, but not without becoming the world's first fascist state.
Hope thats at a a decent one.
So, where next on te journey around the world? And yes, the leader of the Turkish fascists was made up, as I couldn't find a decent analogy from that time period, especially one who would work with rather than against th Sultan, meaning Ataturk is out of the question.
Fascist Ottomans? Sign me up.
Is there any fun butterflies going on in my dear Mexico?
Separate names with a comma.