Red Sun Rising: The Reverse-Russo-Japanese War

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Forbiddenparadise64

Exert from John MacIntyre's ‘Baptised in Blood and Fire: The Story of Revolutionary Ideologies in East Asia’, 1982, pp.124


“The vast continent of Asia’s history is prolific and rich in ways that are greatly overlooked in our European culture, with long and ancient traditions being formed and fading away as time went on. The last century has not been much different, though the influence of the West has left its mark on the countries of the East. What once were ancient monarchies going back millennia have been replaced with Workers’ Republics, Free Communes and National States, all with their own unique set of circumstances and situations. From my own personal journeys to the Workers Republic of Japan, I can inform you with great certainty of the effects of state socialism and its implementation in former-war torn countries. The country is home to some of the most advanced military and civilian technology in the world, with almost every house in the country having their own flashbox* and with regular CCTV, reducing crime rates significantly. However, the country’s dangerous military spending in trying to update itself with competitors in Berlin, London, Nanjing, Jakarta and Washington has led to living standards dropping, with many of the country’s civilian orientated jobs suffering as a result. While the rights of citizens have increased greatly on paper, open criticism of the government can still lead to a prison or even death sentence depending on the severity of the crime. Guards are present in open squares to make sure more student riots take place like the Nagasaki incident of 1978.** Of even more difficulty is their intervention in international affairs, as their grip on the fellow members of the Hainan Pact has loosened dramatically in recent years. Protests in Vladivostok for reunification are not uncommon, while Central Asia is still keeling over from the devastating days of the Bepul Xiva and Afghani-Bukharran War. Nevertheless, the impact Tokyo has had on global politics, either positively or negatively, has been nothing short of profound, and it is impossible to dismiss the existence of such a nation as anything other than a testament to the determination of ideology. In order to find how this situation arose, we must look at the recent history of Asia and what shaped this world in which we live.

Tokyo-1969-640x442.jpg


A scene of the modern bustling Japanese city, with some of the first local businesses starting to boom into existence, though closely monitered by officials.

“The beginning of the 20th century was a turbulent time for many of the nations of the world, particularly as the old empires were beginning to show their first signs of ageing. At this point, the empires of Britain France and Russia, becoming organised in the form of an ‘Entente’ were becoming increasingly hostile towards the German-led opposition for domination of Europe. This tension was not limited to one continent however, as even in the Pacific Ocean, the foundations for a new world were beginning. The young Empire of Japan had recently formed out of the Meji Restoration not even 50 years ago, with the new nation desiring to flex its military muscles and become a world power in its own right. They had won a strong victory against the Chinese, but felt bitter after a forced removal from many of their territories by the Quadruple Intervention.*** To create a new world more suited to the needs of the Japanese people, more expansion would ultimately be necessary, and a target would need to be selected. This next target would be one of the great Empires of Europe, which in Tokyo’s mind, had cheated them out of the potential to become a great and powerful nation, simply because of the prejudice that existed among much of their leadership. To prove their worth on the global front, the Japanese military started making their preparations to move against another great nation: Russia.”

This is my first actual attempt at a detailed alternate history timeline, one based loosely off a map series of mine, and inspired by several projects around here, but one that will try and be refined towards plausibility and involve a more textbook based approach rather than simply rule of cool to it. Hope this is a nice teaser.

* This world's name for a television.
** , This was a major riot by young students and workers in the city of Nagasaki, which was cracked down upon heavily by government forces. It has been estimated that over 400 civilians and several dozen soldiers were killed in riots campaigning for the increase in the standards of education besides government indoctrination.
*** This links in with the original point of divergence, as shall be seen in future.
 

rjd1997

You're making this a timeline? Heck yes! Loved the maps, and looking foward to a homegrown communist Japan for once. :D
 

zert

This looks like an interesting start.

Will you be including the maps or at least provide links to them? It would be helpful to have them as a reference as the timeline proceeds.
 

Forbiddenparadise64

The Sino-Japanese War and it's aftermath

Thank you loads for the feedback, it is greatly appreciated. :D With regards to maps and such, they shall be making a return to some extent, but there will also be modifications and retcons such as the alternate development of local identities, including the rise of a relatively successful anarchist movement. But more on that later ;).

Kiara Reaves, 'The Circumstances of Early 20th century Japan, an extract from World History: A Beginner’s Guide;, pp. 273-275

After the Meiji Restoration, Japan became a much more outward looking nation, hoping to create an empire that could compete militarily and economically with the Western Powers which had looked down on it. its leadership strongly desired new territory either colonially or within its sphere of influence, and one if its main targets would be the nation of China, a fellow Asian Empire, but one that was on a steady decline throughout the previous century after repeated humiliations by the Western Powers. It’s vassalship over Korea was still very present, though straining for influence, and Japan saw a new opportunity to bring union and strength to the people of Asia. To prove that an Asian nation could compete with Europe and was not “racially inferior” at all. As a result of this, the Sino-Japanese war took place in 1894-1895, where Japan managed to take on the Great Dragon and ultimately triumph. The war was a drain on Japan’s economy however, and while their gains were fairly impressive, they ultimately were not able to keep them all.

European nations didn't want Japan becoming too influential in the region and taking from their spheres of influence, particularly in Manchuria and Korea, and so they sent an ultimatum, requiring that Japan retreat from all its gains except for Formosa and the Penghu Islands,[1] with Korea being freed from anyone’s sphere of influence, in theory at least. In practise however, Russia ended up having the most influence over the nation, though not as much as China once had. This stemmed from the Russian interests in Manchuria as well as the Penghu incident, where the Japanese accidentally sank some British fishing vessels while fighting in the Penghu campaign navally.[2]

As a result, Japan had managed to make some gains, but was internationally humiliated, feeling cheated out of their gains by arrogant Europeans. Russia had gained the most from this arrangement and as a result, there was increased hostility towards the people of Europe. Without even a Chinese loan, and with a considerable amount of finance put into the war, Japan’s economy was hurting, further amplified by its diplomatic isolation. This led to increased amounts of anti-government sentiment from particular groups, particularly at the military aristocrats who had planned out the war. Within this time came one particular group who capitalised on the social inequality in favour of something altogether different. With some basis on the original Freedom and People’s Rights Movement, the new Democratic Union for Progress wanted to end the government’s wasting on wars and entitled a desire towards social justice and economic egalitarianism, to finish what the Meiji Restoration had started. Most within the DUP desired an increase in democratic reform and social rights for the people, as well as reduction of the Emperor’s powers to further enable this process. Sen Katayama and Sakuzo Yoshino, among others were dominant in this plea for social reform, which would be done peacefully through the election process. However, there were also a subfaction within the party that desired a more militant and outspoken approach to the achieving of equality, led by such people as Kotoku Shusui and Toshihiko Sakai. The latter was strongly influenced by Marxism, believing that a proletarian based state that directly worked off the will of the working class would be most efficient, while the former preferred a more libertarian stance of anarcho-syndicalism, with empowered trade unions allowing direct democracy to replace feudalism. Both the minor and major wings of the party faced significant persecution by the government for their anti-establishmentarianism and opposition to wars of expansion. Nevertheless, with a worse-off economy, the movement began to grow significantly, leading to divergences and similar ideologies originating over the period at the end of the 19th century.

Japan’s disappointing victory greatly impacted its outlook on the other nations of the world, being more distrusting of them, with demand among citizens to take revenge against these nations increasing significantly. Over the decade following the war, Japan took increasing oppurtunities to find ways to take revenge against other nations. With Russia’s influence in Korea increasing by the day, significantly beyond what the Quadruple Intervention had intended, Japan found an opportunity to take revenge, and on the 17th of May 1904, following a false flag operation involving the attack of some Japanese traders,[3] war came.

[1.] This also means no Qing loan of 200 million taels (the equivalent of 3 billion yen or £18.4 million) or sphere of influence over Korea is given to Japan either.
[2.] This is the timeline’s point of divergence from our world, and quite similar, though slightly worse than OTL’s Dogger Bank incident.
[3. Known as the Busan Incident, this involved a group of Japanese soldiers dressed in Russian uniforms and with deliberate obscuring of their faces starting a fight with and attacking Japanese traders, resulting in the deaths of 8 of these traders and the injury of 19 others, including 5 bystanders.

Hope this is alright for you. :p
 
Last edited:

SenatorChickpea

This looks interesting, but a note on readability- it's easy to miss asterisks in the body of the text, which means you have to go back and carefully scan the post to see what the footnotes attach too. It's far better just to number them [1], which may look a little uglier but is far more useful on small screens.


[1] Like this.
 

trurle

Banned
Forbiddenparadise64 said:
Thank you loads for the feedback, it is greatly appreciated. :D With regards to maps and such, they shall be making a return to some extent, but there will also be modifications and retcons such as the alternate development of local identities, including the rise of a relatively successful anarchist movement. But more on that later ;).

Kiara Reaves, 'The Circumstances of Early 20th century Japan, an extract from World History: A Beginner’s Guide;, pp. 273-275

After the Meiji Restoration, Japan became a much more outward looking nation, hoping to create an empire that could compete militarily and economically with the Western Powers which had looked down on it. its leadership strongly desired new territory either colonially or within its sphere of influence, and one if its main targets would be the nation of China, a fellow Asian Empire, but one that was on a steady decline throughout the previous century after repeated humiliations by the Western Powers. It’s vassalship over Korea was still very present, though straining for influence, and Japan saw a new opportunity to bring union and strength to the people of Asia. To prove that an Asian nation could compete with Europe and was not “racially inferior” at all. As a result of this, the Sino-Japanese war took place in 1894-1895, where Japan managed to take on the Great Dragon and ultimately triumph. The war was a drain on Japan’s economy however, and while their gains were fairly impressive, they ultimately were not able to keep them all.

European nations didn't want Japan becoming too influential in the region and taking from their spheres of influence, particularly in Manchuria and Korea, and so they sent an ultimatum, requiring that Japan retreat from all its gains except for Formosa and the Penghu Islands,* with Korea being freed from anyone’s sphere of influence, in theory at least. In practise however, Russia ended up having the most influence over the nation, though not as much as China once had. This stemmed from the Russian interests in Manchuria as well as the Penghu incident, where the Japanese accidentally sank some British fishing vessels while fighting in the Penghu campaign navally.*

As a result, Japan had managed to make some gains, but was internationally humiliated, feeling cheated out of their gains by arrogant Europeans. Russia had gained the most from this arrangement and as a result, there was increased hostility towards the people of Europe. Without even a Chinese loan, and with a considerable amount of finance put into the war, Japan’s economy was hurting, further amplified by its diplomatic isolation. This led to increased amounts of anti-government sentiment from particular groups, particularly at the military aristocrats who had planned out the war. Within this time came one particular group who capitalised on the social inequality in favour of something altogether different. With some basis on the original Freedom and People’s Rights Movement, the new Democratic Union for Progress wanted to end the government’s wasting on wars and entitled a desire towards social justice and economic egalitarianism, to finish what the Meiji Restoration had started. Most within the DUP desired an increase in democratic reform and social rights for the people, as well as reduction of the Emperor’s powers to further enable this process. Sen Katayama and Sakuzo Yoshino, among others were dominant in this plea for social reform, which would be done peacefully through the election process. However, there were also a subfaction within the party that desired a more militant and outspoken approach to the achieving of equality, led by such people as Kotoku Shusui and Toshihiko Sakai. The latter was strongly influenced by Marxism, believing that a proletarian based state that directly worked off the will of the working class would be most efficient, while the former preferred a more libertarian stance of anarcho-syndicalism, with empowered trade unions allowing direct democracy to replace feudalism. Both the minor and major wings of the party faced significant persecution by the government for their anti-establishmentarianism and opposition to wars of expansion. Nevertheless, with a worse-off economy, the movement began to grow significantly, leading to divergences and similar ideologies originating over the period at the end of the 19th century.

Japan’s disappointing victory greatly impacted its outlook on the other nations of the world, being more distrusting of them, with demand among citizens to take revenge against these nations increasing significantly. Over the decade following the war, Japan took increasing oppurtunities to find ways to take revenge against other nations. With Russia’s influence in Korea increasing by the day, significantly beyond what the Quadruple Intervention had intended, Japan found an opportunity to take revenge, and on the 17th of May 1904, following a false flag operation involving the attack of some Japanese traders,* war came.

*1. This also means no Qing loan of 200 million taels (the equivalent of 3 billion yen or £18.4 million) or sphere of influence over Korea is given to Japan either.
*2. This is the timeline’s point of divergence from our world, and quite similar, though slightly worse than OTL’s Dogger Bank incident.
*3. Known as the Busan Incident, this involved a group of Japanese soldiers dressed in Russian uniforms and with deliberate obscuring of their faces starting a fight with and attacking Japanese traders, resulting in the deaths of 8 of these traders and the injury of 19 others, including 5 bystanders.

Hope this is alright for you. :p
Click to expand...

Well, i forecast something like pro-communistic Japanese intervention in Siberia in 1917. IOTL, the anti-communist Siberian intervention did not enjoy the full political support in Japan, but with if Japanese Marxists will formally support Lenin and enter the Communist International as dominant (or even second) force, it be legally (and physically, as explained later) very difficult to expel Japanese from Siberia.

IOTL in 1905, the Russian empire was not yet rotten and shaken enough yet for full-scale military defeat. Even IOTL Russian defeat in Russo-Japanese war was nearly a miracle. If Japanese will have worse starting position in 1905, they are unlikely to shake Russia. It mean likely postponed or cancelled Stolypin reform.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stolypin_reform.
Without Stolypin reform, the development of Siberia will be lagging and the control of Siberia by Japan may be more firm after the eventual collapse of Russian Empire in WWI.
 

Forbiddenparadise64

SenatorChickpea said:
This looks interesting, but a note on readability- it's easy to miss asterisks in the body of the text, which means you have to go back and carefully scan the post to see what the footnotes attach too. It's far better just to number them [1], which may look a little uglier but is far more useful on small screens.


[1] Like this.
Click to expand...

Fixed now. As for the other stuff, it's kind of complicated. Yes, in my original one Japan does worse initially, both militarily and economically and thus leads to a communist revolution happening (though the date and duration will likely be changed), but eventually manages to bounce back in a somewhat similar way to how the USSR got its act together (though without such a high death toll). Russia does initially do better thanks to Manchuria and Korea, as well as a Chinese collapse, but becomes internationally isolated as a result, meaning WW1 doesn't play out that similarly to OTL. So things will be getting more interesting as things go on.

Also, I've noticed the POD is slightly before 1900 (1894) so would it be possible for someone to move it to that section of the forum?
 
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