Red Storm Rising: Major Chernyavin not hit by a car.
- Thread starter MUC
- Start date
Well, the Soviet Union's aim is to force Germany into neutrality, so that they can then go for the Middle East without retaliation. Somehow, I doubt that this stacks up very well.
First of, the win condition of Germany peaceing out is hard to swallow. The Soviets will have grabbed Iceland, and the Red Army reaches the Rhine--what next? Some cases suggest that as the Soviet Union advances on the Rhine NATO resorts to tactical nuclear weapons, which will probably lead to everything getting launched, or the Soviet Union tries to secure things like Bonn on the far side of the Rhine and offers to hold on the French Border, France decides to Frappe the Soviet Union, nukes fly, 90% of the world dies.
Even if Germany does opt to peace out, the SECOND MOVE is going to be the end of the line. The Soviet move to grab additional oil supplies in the Middle East, AFTER A SHOOTING WAR WITH THE WEST must lead to a nuclear confrontation. This is all happening after the United States has cut off all shipments of grain to the Soviet Union, so the Soviet People are starving...
Suffice it to say, the Soviet Union winning German neutrality is pushing the West enough; going after the oil, as was originally intended with the level of tensions in the world is probably going to lead to a nuclear exchange. The Soviets will have killed tens of thousands of Americans--a stinging defeat, but also a sign that the Soviet Union would DARE to start a shooting war. The cold war goes into a deep freeze, and I'd suspect that when the Second Campaign starts, the Soviet Union finds the West is not nearly as weakened politically as they dreamed...
First of, the win condition of Germany peaceing out is hard to swallow. The Soviets will have grabbed Iceland, and the Red Army reaches the Rhine--what next? Some cases suggest that as the Soviet Union advances on the Rhine NATO resorts to tactical nuclear weapons, which will probably lead to everything getting launched, or the Soviet Union tries to secure things like Bonn on the far side of the Rhine and offers to hold on the French Border, France decides to Frappe the Soviet Union, nukes fly, 90% of the world dies.
Even if Germany does opt to peace out, the SECOND MOVE is going to be the end of the line. The Soviet move to grab additional oil supplies in the Middle East, AFTER A SHOOTING WAR WITH THE WEST must lead to a nuclear confrontation. This is all happening after the United States has cut off all shipments of grain to the Soviet Union, so the Soviet People are starving...
Suffice it to say, the Soviet Union winning German neutrality is pushing the West enough; going after the oil, as was originally intended with the level of tensions in the world is probably going to lead to a nuclear exchange. The Soviets will have killed tens of thousands of Americans--a stinging defeat, but also a sign that the Soviet Union would DARE to start a shooting war. The cold war goes into a deep freeze, and I'd suspect that when the Second Campaign starts, the Soviet Union finds the West is not nearly as weakened politically as they dreamed...
The point was not to force Germany to be neutral, the point was to isolate Germany from NATO and the Spetznaz operations were to cripple Germany.
The whole Spetznaz thing was a bad idea though. Assuming that he doesnt get hit means the operations is carried on. That would mean that Russia doesnt have the high moral standing of fighting the killers of children anymore because the launced a sneak attack, which would get the rest of NATO envolved. Still the soviets have the upper hand here with the advantage of suprise and positioning.
Still going after the oil fields is not going to work.
Well, those commando raids were the first operations in a shooting war that was supposed to begin after political pressures and ultimatums. In other words, while the attacks themselves would be surprise attacks, the war is not, at this time, a surprise. It's just the matter on how to start the war you said you were going to start if Country A doesn't accept the ultimatum.
After that, even if NATO politically fractures (and that's a large if), the Soviets defeat West Germany and reach the Rhine, NATO governments wouldn't just sit and watch while the USSR conquers Europe's oil suppliers. The next IF would be if the remaining Western European governments decide that's better red than dead and plan to negotiate oil purchases with the USA after Iran and Iraq are conquered. IF they do, would the USA declare war on the USSR knowing that such a war would only be a nuclear one?
Ironic twist: The USA's government thinking to sacrifice their own country in order to defend post-revolutionary Iran from a foreign threat
The Soviet goal was not to achieve the 'moral high ground' but one provide a casui belli for their people and to try and spilt NATO. They achieve the first goal and have limited sucess with the next. Greece refuses to honor NATO commiments, Japan enforces a strict neutrality refusing to let US forces launch strikes from their terrority. It also got pleanty of other nations to keep their heads down and out of NATO and USSR's hair.
I don't think however Chernyavin not being hit by the car really helps the Soviets. I figure that the Spetznaz attacks have a higher sucess rate but doesn't really help the Soviets reach the Rhine.
I just looked at my copy, the result is that 3 of the spetnazgroups were taken before reaching their goals but 20+ succeded in attacking their objectives.
And NATO were already mobilising, i dont think a strike like the airplaneattack in the begining of the war was something that someone thought of after the major was struck by the french driver.
What i dont understand is why Sweden wasnt attacked to clear a path to Norway.
There is another WI, namely that the Sovietunion could ask NATO for help after the terroristattack blew up their economy
Because Sweden is not part of NATO. Besides, to make Sweden a clear path they should make Finland a clear path too and I suppose that brings them bad memories.
A thing that wasn't explored (IIRC) but would be interesting is what happens in Svalbard. Though part of Norway, there was quite a big Soviet civilian presence there (Pyramiden etc).
I suppose it what they have to cover in the book and decrease the amount of research they had to do.