Red Storm Rising Aftermath

Discussion in 'Alternate History Books and Media' started by Ace009, Mar 1, 2019.

  1. Ace009 Commander of UNERU

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    Even though Red Storm Rising is a controversial novel (as seen in a similar post in the After 1900 Subforum from 2010), I am wondering how the post-War world is like. As in: on the one hand, we have Sergetov's new government forcing a status quo ante bellum, the Soviets STILL having a serious oil problem and the ensuing economic problems that accompany it. So...how would the world look like in the setting's alternate 2019? Ignoring the fact that Tom Clancy's later work was kind of...you know. A bit too much Team America: World Police and this was before that point.

    Anyway, just how could you all see an alternate 2019 in the Red Storm Rising universe?
     
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  2. lordroel Well-Known Member

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    Well we in AH.com would be discussing World War IV TLs instead of World War III TLs.
     
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  3. Ace009 Commander of UNERU

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    And that is if the Internet even exists as we know it in this timeline. :p
     
  4. lordroel Well-Known Member

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    I think it will, by 1988 when Red Storm Rising takes place we already had the basic beginnings of internet, so i think that will keep going even with World War III happening.
     
  5. Dave Howery laughs at your pain

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    Luckily, Clancy's later work was all about Jack Ryan and had nothing to do with RSR, so it can all be ignored so far as this novel is concerned. I'd think that the USSR, even with the war over, is heading for some real problems.... they have food, but no oil/gas to move it around. Their armies weren't really beaten (yet) but were definitely losing. Separatist factions are going to kick into high gear after all that mess. E. Germany defied the USSR on the question of chemical weapons, and the rest of the WP is likely to start pushing the limits. The USSR's dire lack of oil is going to hamper them a lot... they can't really crack down on separatists or wavering allies...
     
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  6. Geon Well-Known Member

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    At the end of RSR the Soviets had negotiated a cease fire followed by a phased withdrawal. Given that this takes place by 1988 and assuming the President is Ronald Reagan - the novel never really names the President - I don't think this is the end of the repercussions. The U.S.S.R. has launched a war of aggression against NATO, it invaded and occupied neutral Iceland, it has caused widespread devastation throughout West Germany and probably parts of Denmark, Norway, Iceland, and Britain (mostly attacks on naval air assets from what I read). There is no way any American administration at the time would just let things go back to the pre-war status quo. There would be demands for concessions made.

    I would think those concessions would include removing all Russian forces from those nations bordering NATO at the very least with the Warsaw Pact forces being forced to announce whenever a Russian division is being moved and where to neutral observers. Further, financial reparations would be expected from the Soviet Union, especially by West Germany. That would further wreck the now fragile Soviet economy.

    I think you are looking at increased unrest in many of the Warsaw Pact nations as well as in the Soviet Union itself. The new Politburo will have to come to terms with a very hostile West for the foreseeable future.
     
  7. Historyman 14 Well-Known Member

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    The USSR likely goes up in smoke in due time and you have something on the scale of Yugoslavia and Rwanda.
     
  8. SpanishSpy A.K.A Dick Cheney

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    I finished this novel last night. What struck me as per the post-war situation was not Russia, but Germany.

    In this version of the 20th century Russia has attacked Germany three times and twice was the aggressor (World War I in the Eastern Front started with a Russian invasion of East Prussia). And, if the agreement between Robinson and Alekseyev to status quo ante bellum means that the Inner German Border is held, West Germany would have effectively been screwed out of reunification (that being said I think a political settlement would lead to reunification) after being the primary victim (along with Iceland) of a war of aggression.

    Even without the maintenance of the Inner German border, Germans would see the Soviet Union, and Communism in general, as being beyond question an aggressive, brutal ideology that has victimized Germany twice. If the Soviet Union is seen as not being sufficiently punished, you will see revanchist sentiment in Germany that would make that after Versailles look tame.

    In short, with the right sort of postwar settlement, I do not see it as implausible that an openly Neo-Nazi government in Germany within twenty years of the end of the war in the novel, be it in Berlin or in Bonn.

    You will see similar sentiments in the US, the UK, France, and other Allied powers if the settlement with the Soviet Union is not harsh enough, and right-wing parties with a populist streak may well come to power in their capitals. In that environment, a far-right German government would able to manipulate Western sentiment for arms and direct military support.

    And, perhaps scariest of all, these new Nazis would know what moves not to make.
     
  9. Iluvatar Man of Kent

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    I finished the novel for the second time last night.

    I think there would be some big changes for NATO. Neither Greece nor Turkey joined the war, despite their treaty obligations, which will royally irritate the rest of the organisation. And although it was the Greeks who first refused to join in, my sense is that Turkey saw the Greek refusal as a convenient excuse not to partake in the conflict. Turkey is perfectly capable of standing by itself, especially with support from the rest of NATO, but chose to forgo involvement. This raises all sorts of possibilities for Greco-Turkish relations (especially regarding Cyprus) which didn't exist OTL, as well as for Ankara's attitude towards the rest of the Middle East.

    There are implications that Japanese relations with the NATO power might be somewhat damaged. Apparently Japan refused to allow the US to use bases on its territory to attack the Soviet Union, with Moscow dangling the 'carrot' of returning the 'Sakhalin Islands' (not sure if Clancy meant the Kuril Islands, Sakhalin, or both) in return for neutrality. I suppose it's possible that Sergetov could relinquish the territory (perhaps in exchange for financial support to deal with the Eastern Bloc's plethora of problems) but he could equally disavow a commitment made by a former government.

    I don't recall seeing mention of Australia or New Zealand in the narrative, though it's probably safe to assume that they were involved on NATO's side as they would otherwise likely have been mentioned alongside Greece, Turkey and Japan.

    My guess would be that the Warsaw Pact would either collapse or change radically. The USSR simply doesn't have the cash, fuel or manpower to retain hold over its puppets. Additionally, once NATO puts forward its demands for concessions, a withdrawal from East Germany at least seems likely, even if the DDR government remains in power. I don't recall much mention of Warsaw Pact countries apart from the USSR and DDR, but it's safe to assume that most would feel a little more freedom to operate without such a threatening Soviet presence. The Eastern Bloc wasn't far from collapse IOTL anyway, so there's a good chance that total dissolution occurs even faster ITTL (perhaps more violently as well).

    I disagree with @SpanishSpy 's assessment that Neo-Nazism might rise in the BRD ITTL. Anti-Communist sentiment? Absolutely. But there is an infinitesimally small chance that National Socialists (or equivalent group) will take power. Hard-right nationalists? Yes, not unlikely. Aside from financial reparations, Bonn's priority will be a Soviet withdrawal from the DDR, with the ultimate intention of ending the East's communist government and securing reunification.

    As an Englishman myself, I'm interested in the possible implications for the United Kingdom. It's impossible to gauge the possible impact on British attitudes to European integration, but my guess would be that a victory in war (with a significant British involvement, including escorting the liberating forces to Iceland near the end of the conflict) would lead to a wave of patriotic pride, with accompanying opposition to a closer relationship with continental Europe. It's also very possible that Thatcher might last even longer as Prime Minister, as her position as a twice-victorious wartime leader may make her political position virtually unassailable. Whether or not the poll-tax goes through is another matter.

    I'd anticipate a more assertive Britain, focusing on its relations with the Commonwealth and the USA, whilst keeping a close trade relationship with continental Europe. The Continent itself might become more integrated over time, if there is a sense that all fought and won together. Anyone got any ideas about the implications for (continental) European federalism?
     
  10. dmg86 Well-Known Member

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    Their was a mention of war crime trials after the Soviets tried the former leadership.
     
  11. Crowbar Six Well-Known Member

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    It's been a while, but my recollection was that when the two field commanders met and agreed the truce, that the Sov said that they could have them once the Russians had finished... but the implication was that they would experience a bullet to the back of the skull.
     
  12. dmg86 Well-Known Member

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    If i remember he also said that wouldn't happen. Probably so they can say the people tried weren't the typical leaders of the Soviet Union.
     
  13. CalBear Your Ursus arctos californicus Moderator Moderator Donor

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    I believe the phrasing was "after we are done with them; it will be a dull trial" or words to that effect.

    As far as the world in general, it would be a f'ing mess. One of the World's largest economies (the BDR) is flattened, as is parts of the DDR. Unlike IOTL a reunified Germany will not have the funds available to even partially rehabilitate the DDR, even without the DDR coming back into union the BRD might need aid to rebuild. France has billions of dollars in damage to port facilities that the Soviets destroyed as part of their interdiction efforts. As noted, the NATO Alliance is destroyed, at least the South flank of the Alliance. Japan is likely to get, if not a pass, something close to one simply because it will need to be one of the main sources of funding in the reconstruction of Western Europe.

    The Soviets would have to try to deal with the Pact countries which were already refusing to meet that "treaty" obligations, except they will have to do it now without most of their Cat A and Cat B divisions meaning the Pact countries are now better equipped than the Soviets and myth of Soviet military invulnerability is shattered. The Soviet leadership is in tatters, with a few senior civilian members left who are 100% sure that the Army is in charge, and an Army that has virtually no one with political skills (those sorts of army leaders tended to be weeded out before they make 0-3). The Soviet economy, which was already teetering on disaster, which led to the war to begin with, now has to deal with the loss of thousands of men who were in actual necessary civilian jobs (those Cat C divisions would have been made up of men between 35 and 55, i.e. factory managers, journeymen plumbers, electricians, masons, etc.) before NATO airstrikes scattered them across the Fulda Gap. Losses pale compared with WW II, but things are going to be really bad inside the USSR.

    The U.S. economy just got shanked. Some of the biggest markets are smoking craters, others will be spending money at home instead of overseas, and the military will need to replace about 20 years of accumulated equipment that has been destroyed in action, beaten into condition beyond repair or just plain old fired off (Tomahawk, at the time, $750K a pop, AIM 7 Sparrow were about $75K each, a Los Angeles class, 2nd flight, was $900M each, M1 Abrams ~$6M a pop) and the ALL have to be replaced, mostly with more expensive platforms (the M1 will wind up M1A1, the 688 boats will be SSN-21, same for FFG, DD/DDG, aircraft, you name it) since the USSR is still there, beaten but far from broken. A number of U.S. flagged and owned cargo ships were sunk and their replacements will be fighting for yard space, jacking up the cost.
     
  14. Geon Well-Known Member

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    Not to mention the fact that the Soviets have lost a considerable part of their submarine fleet, and most of their naval/air combat planes. And a good part of their North Atlantic Fleet. All of that is expensive to replace. And again that is money the Soviets don't have.
     
  15. KuboCaskett Resident Otaku

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    I disagree with SpanishSpy on that too, considering how hyperbolic the idea of West Germany becoming the Fourth Reich seems; afterall, the Western bloc would not tolerate an openly fascistic state that's blatantly the heir to the Third Reich (sure there was Franco's Spain but still).

    And if you ask me, the post-war world would be very destabilized with the two superpowers being poorer than OTL's to an extent and lots of mercenaries from the warring countries would be at work around the world in whatever conflict happens that isn't WWIV. Though the plus side is that there would ways to counter the threat of nuclear attacks with more ABMs and lasers to take down ICBMs, provided if the great powers have enough money and resources to make them.
     
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  16. SpanishSpy A.K.A Dick Cheney

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    There's a reason why I said 'within twenty years' - the Western powers would, at the moment, find a resurgence of Nazism abhorrent, but as times change and the view of Nazi anti-Communism begins to change as the Soviet Union went on a rampage in Germany for the second time, many in the west are going to change. I'd reckon you'd get a resurgence in populist right wingers in the West earlier in OTL if the postwar situation isn't felt to be sufficiently punitive of the Soviet Union. Given that the Soviet Union is a superpower, this is likely to be unsatisfactory. You also have many veterans of the Wehrmacht and SS still alive, and some in political office, egging on the resurgence of a violent strain of German nationalism.

    And given how communism gets conflated with general social movements in the West, you're looking at many angry right wingers. In Germany, Nazis are the most obvious. I doubt they would be as militarily successful as the original Nazis since they have to depend so much on other Western powers, but they'd definitely have a strong voice.

    In OTL, the Soviet Union starved Ukraine, deported large amounts of ethnic minorities, through political prisoners in gulags, caused famines due to collectivization, ruthlessly crushed anti-Communist uprisings in Hungary and Czechoslovakia, and committed the largest mass rape in human history. It's already easy enough to make them look evil; in the world of the novel, you can add 'started a bloody world war due to internal factors' and all the atrocity that inevitably has, and in many minds that will be seen as worse than the Nazis. In Germany, this can happen because the Soviets did a lot of bad things in Germany, whereas the public perception of the Holocaust is of things done in Poland and other parts of Eastern Europe (in actuality, they Nazis persecuted plenty in their own country, but I have doubts that they will be the public perception). You also have the old canard of Communism being a Jewish conspiracy. Given the awful regimes that the US propped up in OTL, even in Europe (Francoist Spain, the Greek military junta), I can see the right administration in Washington happily looking the other way if they keep the Soviets at bay. I can also see the US attempting to 'deprogram' Germany of parts of the de-Nazification policy, such as encouraging the growth of German military strength.

    I agree that the world will be more destabilized since the US and Soviet Union are weaker. In that case, doesn't that make these reactionary governments more, not less likely?
     
  17. KuboCaskett Resident Otaku

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    I see what you're getting at, but given how well documented the Nazi crimes are and that how many of the survivors are around (both Jewish and non-Jewish) in 1986, I highly doubt the Western bloc would again tolerate a literal Fourth Reich for a long time; though if a more rightwing government in West Germany ala the Abe administration and that one in Poland right now rises (for better or worse I'm not bothering on that), I'd imagine that the remnant Soviet government would use that as fodder for propaganda along with many other far left organizations that still exist (though at least the Germans would be somewhat over the horrors of WWII and Nazism...sort of). Speaking of which, at least the conflict might lead to Communism being discredited, almost to how Nazism is, another plus from this scenario, then again the far right still exists after WWII so...
     
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  18. Dave Howery laughs at your pain

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    not to mention they are critically short on oil. One of the ironic things mentioned in the book is that the USSR finally managed to produce enough food for everyone, but fuel to move it around is lacking...
     
  19. lordroel Well-Known Member

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    If i remember correctly, Japan was promised the Kuril Islands back if they stay neutral ore they would suffer badly if the join the Americans.
     
  20. CalBear Your Ursus arctos californicus Moderator Moderator Donor

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    They were, along with some other concessions.

    Still makes them Blue Falcons.

    West will still need the money, so froth on life's wake.