White just single handly extended the cold war another ten or twenty years and he still has most of his term left. Id be surprised if the cold war ends before 2000 at this point.
The Soviet Union collapse was not as likely to had happened with the right PoD, even in OTL where the soviets were in a much worse position, as late as the 80s you could have prevented the collapse of the Soviet Union. So I don't see why, with much stronger gap between the west and the USSR, the Soviet Union must collapse.
Second, what near-neighbors? Capitalist Europe is fucked without the ECSC, and one of the biggest country in Europe (France) being communist I don't see anything like the ECSC being created (if it is created it probably is just a soviet pet project), as the USA becomes more fascist like (base from what we have seen of the future) I find unlikely that Africa will like a country that segregated its own population, you also have to remember that as France Decolonization it's Africa possessions, it will likely leave the natives with some ideas. The only place I see where the US gains an advantage is in the Middle East, where the US and Arab unite over their hatred of Israel. Asia is as good as dead from the US perspective, even with a Sino-Soviet split happening the USSR is still in a far better position than in OTL.
You can also say bye bye to a lot of the west economy boom and see a lot more recessions in the post-war west and by consequence, a lot more interest in the "stable" communist world.
The problem is the USA has no strong capitalist-democratic alies. Japan and Germany are fucked, Europe is turning pink and everything else is still developing.
More communist countries Moscow can occupy mostly mean more overstretch, expenses, and potential embarrassments (Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Poland).
The mass movement was sparked by the severe economic crisis coupled with the conservative society. Well, you can mitigate the first one but some sort of political reform will be necessary to keep the PUWP in power.
Near-ASB event as reactors usually does not explode. Chornobyl was a result of a massive clusterfuck where there were numerous technical issues and an inexperienced crew. Any TL with a scenario similar to Chornobyl should be deemed as slightly more possible than the Sealion operation.
Averted? Probably no. However, it can be delayed if there is no rapid destalinization or Mao dies earlier. His successor would possess too little of the power base and would be more reliant on foreign aid.
Hungary did happen only because Nagy was appointed as the Prime Minister during the New Course policies of Georgy Malenkov. Then he was removed by Rakosi when Malenkov lost his power because Nagy was a Moscow man in Hungary. 1955-1956 was a time of recession in the East Bloc that also can be averted (No Tito TL or simply delayed arms race). Keep in mind that the Soviets intervened only after Nagy announced withdrawal from the Warsaw Pact. Poland of 1956 wasn't as much an embarrassment as the Soviets accepted the transfer of power from Stalinists to moderates. In a more secure Soviet Union scenario, Czechoslovakia would probably go a similar way (especially if Germans are starved and more susceptible to the Soviet propaganda or generally anti-Western).
Chernobyl can be avoided by simply building a better-designed reactor. The Sino-Soviet split can be mitigated and turned in the USSR's favor when the USA refuses to trade or do large scale business at all with anyone to the right of Franco and Pinochet. Without the massive western investment in the Chinese and Asian market (and continued Japanese-Chinese rivalry, and not just economic rivalry either), the USSR doesn't have anything to worry about from a China who won't experience anywhere near the explosive growth they did OTL.A lot of doubt on that.
The Cold War didn't exactly end because Gorbachev's empire was underextended. The enormous damage of the war is the same. This does nothing I can see to avert Solidarity, or Chernobyl, or the Sino-Soviet split, or any of the other structural issues that caused the collapse. What I see is a minor potential economic boon from Mediterranean access.
I mean, on the positive end. I also see a scarier Russia that will better unify its near-neighbors, and a Russia with more imperial expenses and overstretch.
There was much less paranoia during the war, and there would be even less of it while White is an asset.Its still (for awhile) a Stalinist Russia, which means paranoia and distrust are part of every day life
To "keep up" with the West, Stalin invented this horrendous autarchical model of economy, and as a consequence introduced near perfect self-isolation, draconian regulation of all contacts with foreign nationals (every such contact was legally a treason) and yes, paranoia.And maybe without the pressure to “keep up” with the west, these conditions could get even worst
That's like saying that our reliance on fossil fuels could be mitigated by building a sci-fi fusion plant.Chernobyl can be avoided by simply building a better-designed reactor.
Were not known until later but they had already discovered flaws in the design anyway. As long as they take the time to iron out some of the hastily brushed over kinks they will mitigate or reduce the disaster.The sheer scale of the flaws
The problem with trying to fix the "minor" flaws is that a lot of the worst flaws were deliberate design decisions or a result of deliberate design decisions. The lack of redundant systems and so on.Were not known until later but they had already discovered flaws in the design anyway. As long as they take the time to iron out some of the hastily brushed over kinks they will mitigate or reduce the disaster.
And of course, one of the primary reasons for the reactors meltdown was lack of maintenance and sheer incompetence by the reactor's staff.
Conversely wouldn't also be fair to say that the new hand could also bring the USSR, some great unforeseen boon not seen otl? Also we are not remotely dealing with a fair game here, the deck is rigged and the USA has already thrown the first few hands: Africa and Eurasia are falling into the Soviet hands and the USA has not even realised it.Shuffle the deck and some issues can be avoided, but others will arise instead. More satellites, more potential for problems keeping them on side. Forced to invade Yugoslavia, perhaps. Romanian or German problems we never saw afflict the USSR. Who knows?
Yes, because they've never built another reactor design before learning RBMK failure in a hard way. Considering that they did, they had active nuclear program since the World War 2, it's by no means certain that exactly the same reactor design would be built ATL.That's like saying that our reliance on fossil fuels could be mitigated by building a sci-fi fusion plant.
By 1970s, some of reactor flaws were recognized during the Leningrad power plant accident.The sheer scale of the flaws was not actually known until after Chernobyl.
This wouldn't get their culture of nuclear safety changed however.Yes, because they've never built another reactor design before learning RBMK failure in a hard way. Considering that they did, they had active nuclear program since the World War 2, it's by no means certain that exactly the same reactor design would be built ATL.
By 1970s, some of reactor flaws were recognized during the Leningrad power plant accident.
Saying that a Chernobyl-like disaster is inevitable is cursed when you look at the absolute near ASB level of a clusterfuck that actually happened at Chernobyl in particular, yet against all odds it still managed to happen.This wouldn't get their culture of nuclear safety changed however.
Some sort of large nuclear disaster would be inevitable.
There's a decent chance that the US mounts a coup in France (or at least tries to) the government tried it in OTLThere's a difference between being right wing and being a fascist military dictatorship. Germany and Japan will probably never again be empires, but they are definitely going to be right wing for a long time. Add on to that once the United States finally realizes what white has done oh boy. Instead of learning about the Holocaust I'm pretty sure we're going to get schools teaching about the German famine.
As for France it's going to find itself more or less surrounded by enemies. Spain is still going to be a junta, Germany will probably forever hate their guts, and I highly doubt England is going to become socialist any time soon.
The United States will probably only keep them around as long as they don't actually go communist, more than likely however I think we're going to see a CIA back to eventually and a military dictatorship take charge.
This world is so fucked.