Red Sea Lion WW3

ar-pharazon

Banned
Okay so in any WW3 scenario from 1946 to 1989 you have the a soviet invasion of Europe.

How can in any Soviet-NATO conflict can we have the Soviet Union launching a ground invasion of the United Kingdom.

POD is 1925 for the development of soviet navy and Soviet naval doctrine.

How can we have a soviet invasion of Britain?
 
It's actually *relatively* possible. The late and dearly departed James G (I miss him every single day) wrote a bunch of conventional WW3 NATO vs Warsaw Pact alternate history. IIRC he had a second Battle of Britain occurring over London and makes reference to defensive preparations in case the Soviet Airborne tries a coupe de main in London.

Here's my idea (a preexisting framework I've long wanted to write but don't have the time to execute):

POD: Konstantin Chernenko slips and falls on February 5, 1984 and sustains a resulting aneurysm which kills him. Four days later Andropov dies.

-The USSR isn't quite ready for Gorbachev yet. Grigory Romanov, a hawk and close acolyte of Andropov, becomes General Secretary

-mid-1985: the USSR realizes that if they wait any longer they will permanently lose military advantage over NATO and will be stuffed in any subsequent conflict (this was the last year NATO and WP forces were really at parity before NATO pulled decisively ahead). Romanov, paranoid and famous in OTL for his bellicose rhetoric during Able Archer, decides to initiate a bolt from the blue war to take all land on the east side of the Rhine, Scandinavia, Southern Europe, and also to induce the DPRK to restart things on the Korean Peninsula (which Kim il-Sung wanted to do anyway; he was really lobbying the Soviets hard to try for Seoul again in 1975 after Saigon fell).

-Oleg Gordievsky, the KGB Ranking Officer in the UK and a secret MI-6 asset, is made aware that they will soon be at war (within two weeks) and is briefed on plans for the "Grey Terror" in the UK, the preparatory period in which Spetsnaz and agents from both the KGB and GRU would commit various acts of sabotage, disinformation, reconnaissance, and terrorism. He quickly alerts his handlers and provides copies of key documents and orders. His info includes information that naval spetsnaz will land by submarine on various locations in the UK a couple weeks before things start, along with landing locations. The Royal Navy is able to covertly observe and videotape Soviet submarines dropping armed spetsnaz in the UK from his info, incontestably proving that war will soon start. The information is quickly shared throughout all NATO, and general panic ensues. REFORGER, Britain's Transition to War plans, and all other national equivalents in every NATO country are activated.

-Two weeks later: war starts. Loss of strategic surprise results in the Soviets failing to reach the Rhine, though they do take Denmark and most of the FRG's territory. However, NATO loses all of Scandinavia, with Norway, Sweden, and Finland falling. Convoys across the Atlantic also suffer heavy losses, though an airborne drop into Iceland is defeated. The Soviets are helped greatly here by the fact that all U.S. Navy encrypted comms (which are also used by the USMC, which has the main responsibility for the defense of Iceland and Norway) are being intercepted and decrypted in real time due to the espionage of the Walker Ring. This is the state of things one month in.

-With the Skagerrak and Norway securely in Soviet hands, they are able to send the Baltic and North Sea fleets through to meet each other. They consolidate at Bergen. The Soviets now have a much more potent surface fleet than the Nazis had, with the Brits and NATO having much weaker in comparison to their forces in WWII. Attrition in the North Atlantic and everywhere else, coupled with prewar sabotage of the Panama and Suez canals, means NATO can't put many ships in their way as a permanent defense. Britain and the rest of NATO have had to commit virtually all of their armed forces to Germany and the Low Countries to keep them from falling. As this is only a month in, there has not been time to truly stand up a draft and increase the size of the military; recalled veterans and new enlistments have to be used as casualty replacements. Troops in the actual UK consist of some Royal Marines who escaped Norway and a couple reserve brigades. In OTL for the record, the British army of this period consisted of four divisions and a few reserve brigades, and all four divisions were designated for NORTHAG. So IMHO that's realistic.

-The Soviets realize they're snaked in Germany. NATO's defense there is unbreakable. They notice, however, the British defenses are relatively weak. They launch a surprise landing of airborne units in Essex, backed by naval infantry and leg/armoured units carried by the combined Soviet fleets at Bergen. The goal is to either draw units away from Germany and possibly allow a breakthrough, force Britain to withdraw from the conflict, or sue for peace from a position of relative strength and try to get status quo antebellum plus maybe some minor concessions. They gain a hold but weak logistics and heavy urban fighting on the outskirts of London grind them down. The Brits are few, but they are on their home turf and their logistics are much easier, and they are better trained and equipped. A flood of Irish (who threw in with NATO at the beginning), Iberian, and American units stabilize the front. Submarines attrit the Soviets' supply lines and ultimately the Soviets are pushed off the isles. The gambit is unsuccessful.

-NATO wins at some point, taking East Germany and the Czech half of Czechoslovakia as well.

That's my idea.
 
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ar-pharazon

Banned
What do you think the moral/psychological/propaganda impact of foreign troops invading British soil in the 80s would be?

And the long term cultural impact? Given that this is the first time it has been done successfully in centuries.
 
What do you think the moral/psychological/propaganda impact of foreign troops invading British soil in the 80s would be?

And the long term cultural impact? Given that this is the first time it has been done successfully in centuries.

Well, obviously much greater military spending all around and movies/books/whatever about the campaign.

The effects on the gun control Britain passed about ten years after all this would be kind of interesting. It seems like random shootings become less likely when a society has a common enemy it's united against and recent, severe memories of violence. Hungerford and Dunblane could be butterflied outright (shootings were so extraordinarily rare in Britain even before gun control that they were hardly preordained events), but even if something like that happens, Britain would probably be less likely to enact strict gun control.
 

Ian_W

Banned
Convoys across the Atlantic also suffer heavy losses, though an airborne drop into Iceland is defeated.

-They notice, however, the British defenses are relatively weak. They launch a surprise landing of airborne units in Essex

They seem to be using their airborne forces twice, in addition to any use of them during the initial assault in Germany (which I understand was Soviet doctrine).

I'd suggest leaving off the rather overambitious Iceland attack :)
 
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They seem to be using their airborne forces twice, in addition to any use of them during the initial assault in Germany (which I understand was Soviet doctrine).

I'd suggest leaving off the rather overambitious Iceland attack :)

The Soviets had a truly ridiculous number of airborne formations, including twenty naval and army Spetsnaz brigades totaling somewhere near 30,000 men, six regular airborne divisions (a figure that doesn't include thirteen separate air assault brigades), the brigade-size training formation, and another independent regiment and brigade each, both of which were very oversized and were more like small divisions. And that was just the Soviet ones, never mind the rest of the Warsaw Pact ones.
 

Ian_W

Banned
The Soviets had a truly ridiculous number of airborne formations, including twenty naval and army Spetsnaz brigades totaling somewhere near 30,000 men, six regular airborne divisions (a figure that doesn't include thirteen separate air assault brigades), the brigade-size training formation, and another independent regiment and brigade each, both of which were very oversized and were more like small divisions. And that was just the Soviet ones, never mind the rest of the Warsaw Pact ones.

Sure, but how much of the lift capability is still there after a month of war and a failed attempt on Iceland ?
 
Sure, but how much of the lift capability is still there after a month of war and a failed attempt on Iceland ?

In 1990 after years of downsizing under Gorbachev they had 620 heavy transport aircraft in inventory in the Soviet Air Force with other, lighter ones like the An-26 (could carry 40 paratroopers and they had 1,357 of them) and the An-32 (could carry 42 paratroopers and they had 357 of them) also being common. In addition, Aeroflot had a large number of the all the same types that were in military service, which it used for cargo hauling. These would be converted in time of war. The rest of the Warsaw Pact of course had its own transport fleets.

There will be attrition, but even if 50% is lost they still have enough to drop maybe a couple divisions for a last desperate gamble.
 
The maximum that the Soviets can "liberate" is West Germany, Scandinavia, maybe the Middle East(without Israel) and South Korea. France, GBR, Israel have a few SLBM and IRBM that can make a lot of damage and are not worth the risk. A chain reaction will follow that will throw the world in the Dark Ages.
 

Deleted member 9338

I linke this thread, but trying to figure how the Soviets can bring their fleets together off of Norway without being intercepted by the NATO fleets.
 

Geon

Donor
It's actually *relatively* possible. The late and dearly departed James G (I miss him every single day) wrote a bunch of conventional WW3 NATO vs Warsaw Pact alternate history. IIRC he had a second Battle of Britain occurring over London and makes reference to defensive preparations in case the Soviet Airborne tries a coupe de main in London.

Here's my idea (a preexisting framework I've long wanted to write but don't have the time to execute):

POD: Konstantin Chernenko slips and falls on February 5, 1984 and sustains a resulting aneurysm which kills him. Four days later Andropov dies.

-The USSR isn't quite ready for Gorbachev yet. Grigory Romanov, a hawk and close acolyte of Andropov, becomes General Secretary

-mid-1985: the USSR realizes that if they wait any longer they will permanently lose military advantage over NATO and will be stuffed in any subsequent conflict (this was the last year NATO and WP forces were really at parity before NATO pulled decisively ahead). Romanov, paranoid and famous in OTL for his bellicose rhetoric during Able Archer, decides to initiate a bolt from the blue war to take all land on the east side of the Rhine, Scandinavia, Southern Europe, and also to induce the DPRK to restart things on the Korean Peninsula (which Kim il-Sung wanted to do anyway; he was really lobbying the Soviets hard to try for Seoul again in 1975 after Saigon fell).

-Oleg Gordievsky, the KGB Ranking Officer in the UK and a secret MI-6 asset, is made aware that they will soon be at war (within two weeks) and is briefed on plans for the "Grey Terror" in the UK, the preparatory period in which Spetsnaz and agents from both the KGB and GRU would commit various acts of sabotage, disinformation, reconnaissance, and terrorism. He quickly alerts his handlers and provides copies of key documents and orders. His info includes information that naval spetsnaz will land by submarine on various locations in the UK a couple weeks before things start, along with landing locations. The Royal Navy is able to covertly observe and videotape Soviet submarines dropping armed spetsnaz in the UK from his info, incontestably proving that war will soon start. The information is quickly shared throughout all NATO, and general panic ensues. REFORGER, Britain's Transition to War plans, and all other national equivalents in every NATO country are activated.

-Two weeks later: war starts. Loss of strategic surprise results in the Soviets failing to reach the Rhine, though they do take Denmark and most of the FRG's territory. However, NATO loses all of Scandinavia, with Norway, Sweden, and Finland falling. Convoys across the Atlantic also suffer heavy losses, though an airborne drop into Iceland is defeated. The Soviets are helped greatly here by the fact that all U.S. Navy encrypted comms (which are also used by the USMC, which has the main responsibility for the defense of Iceland and Norway) are being intercepted and decrypted in real time due to the espionage of the Walker Ring. This is the state of things one month in.

-With the Skagerrak and Norway securely in Soviet hands, they are able to send the Baltic and North Sea fleets through to meet each other. They consolidate at Bergen. The Soviets now have a much more potent surface fleet than the Nazis had, with the Brits and NATO having much weaker in comparison to their forces in WWII. Attrition in the North Atlantic and everywhere else, coupled with prewar sabotage of the Panama and Suez canals, means NATO can't put many ships in their way as a permanent defense. Britain and the rest of NATO have had to commit virtually all of their armed forces to Germany and the Low Countries to keep them from falling. As this is only a month in, there has not been time to truly stand up a draft and increase the size of the military; recalled veterans and new enlistments have to be used as casualty replacements. Troops in the actual UK consist of some Royal Marines who escaped Norway and a couple reserve brigades. In OTL for the record, the British army of this period consisted of four divisions and a few reserve brigades, and all four divisions were designated for NORTHAG. So IMHO that's realistic.

-The Soviets realize they're snaked in Germany. NATO's defense there is unbreakable. They notice, however, the British defenses are relatively weak. They launch a surprise landing of airborne units in Essex, backed by naval infantry and leg/armoured units carried by the combined Soviet fleets at Bergen. The goal is to either draw units away from Germany and possibly allow a breakthrough, force Britain to withdraw from the conflict, or sue for peace from , a position of relative strength and try to get status quo antebellum plus maybe some minor concessions. They gain a hold but weak logistics and heavy urban fighting on the outskirts of London grind them down. The Brits are few, but they are on their home turf and their logistics are much easier, and they are better trained and equipped. A flood of Irish (who threw in with NATO at the beginning), Iberian, and American units stabilize the front. Submarines attrit the Soviets' supply lines and ultimately the Soviets are pushed off the isles. The gambit is unsuccessful.

-NATO wins at some point, taking East Germany and the Czech half of Czechoslovakia as well.

That's my idea.

Asp

I like this scenario and would love to see you make it into a story/timeline at some point. But I have one question. If Britain is invaded do you think we would be crossing the nuclear threshold? I don't see this scenario remaining strictly conventional. I think if the UK is invaded we could be looking at tactical nuclear weapons being used if not on British soil then on key staging areas for the invasion to cut off supplies.
 

Deleted member 9338

I would assume if the WarPact forces were stoped within Germany than tac nucs were used. The landing area for a month seen Sea Lion would be decimated by aircraft and artillery.
Asp

I like this scenario and would love to see you make it into a story/timeline at some point. But I have one question. If Britain is invaded do you think we would be crossing the nuclear threshold? I don't see this scenario remaining strictly conventional. I think if the UK is invaded we could be looking at tactical nuclear weapons being used if not on British soil then on key staging areas for the invasion to cut off supplies.
 
Perhaps, using the scenario provided with the subtraction of the British agent providing warning to NATO, the Soviets could launch a true surprise attack. In addition, they incorporate an airborne landing in the UK as a key part of their plan for the initial or almost initial phases of the attack. Also, the attack on Iceland is held off in favor of focusing on the UK operation
 
Many years ago when the world and I were younger, there was a new magazine called 2000AD (and its still going strong today). My favourite story was Savage. In this the Russians, cleverly disguised as the Volgan Empire (for reasons of not upsetting the Russians) invaded the UK, following a left wing government ejecting America from British bases. The Volgs were nasty thugs, shooting anyone that got in their way so that we could hate them and Savage, a truck driver who's family die in the invasion, becomes a one man resistance whirlwind, destroying Volgs in many improbable ways. The royal family fled to Canada, and a long occupation ensued. Of course it all came good and the Volgs were eventually ejected following an American invasion from Ireland.

At the time I was sufficiently impressed that I tried to work out a more plausible way for the Volgs to invade. Looking back my ideas were naïve, relied on many factors all working perfectly and were full of plot holes. I clearly knew even less about military matters then than I do now, but a quick summary of my idea is this (and I'll stick to saying Volgs, but I do mean Russians):

The Volgs are playing the long game. For several years, they make peaceful overtures to various NATO countries, especially the UK. Tensions ease between the 2 sides.
They get us all used to regular convoys sailing past with aid and supplies to places like Cuba, Central America and Africa. Volgan flights took British holiday makers to see the steeps of the Volgan Empire and bought happy smiling Volgans to visit merry olde England. They were cunning, my Volgs.
A left wing government pulls us out of NATO and ejects the Americans. Ideally the Volgs would want the British army still camped in Germany to keep them out of the way, along with the RAF ground attack units, but that would be impossible, so they (or I) settled for the government also rapidly reducing our forces (as if any British government would really do that!). Although kit wasn't scrapped, it would take time to get it back into service and recall the crews you'd just dismissed. Much of what was left was either on Salisbury Plain, in Wales on exercise or at Catterick in the north.
Another election follows and ideally for the Volgs the left would lose, although that isn't actually essential.
The Volgs declare that the right and America fixed the result and the left is the legitimate government; they promise aid.
The invasion itself:
At this time, several units are all in place to act as one.
A small convoy of ships carrying aid abroad is passing the UK. A small(ish) amphibious group, which included a Sverdlov class cruiser with plenty of naval guns, is returning to Russia after exercises in Africa. At a set time (my Volgs had superb timepieces and coordinated it all perfectly) these 2 groups turned into UK waters. The military group is in the Channel and heads into the Thames estuary. From memory it dumped a reinforced Naval Infantry Regiment or two, plus armour (PT-76's) etc that swept along the north of the Thames into London. They don't have to actually reach anywhere important, just isolate large numbers of Londoners in and around the east end. The Sverdlov beached itself and provided fire support. Of course the convoy would have been shadowed by the Royal Navy, but the frigate and destroyer assigned to this task were caught unawares and sunk in a few minutes of close range gunfire. The aid convoy turned out to be carrying a battlegroup of Mechanised Infantry (probably a regiment or so) and supporting units that it lands in the south west somewhere. Several merchant vessels, sailing under flags of convenience, scuttle themselves in harbours around the UK, their crews arming themselves and dashing ashore to cause more chaos.
Simultaneously with this several scheduled flights from Volg and its satellite nations in both Europe and Africa are over the UK or on their way. They land at places like Stanstead, Gatwick and various other airports. Of course they were all actually carrying Airborne troops this time. Some of the flights also included air traffic control experts from the Volgan air force. They seize the airports and hostages.
Sleeper units already in the country hit a mix of targets (power stations and transformers, random shootings on the motorway etc) to cause chaos. Some took hostages.
Spetsnaz units landed the night before are near the airbases on the east coast. As the first RAF response thunders down the runway, they are caught unawares by SA-7 missiles. The spetsnaz then head off for other tasks, but the RAF is stalled whilst the regions around the airbases are made safe.
I felt in this way, the Volgs would have landed a couple of divisions of troops unopposed, and in the process taken numerous hostages. The UK's ability to respond would have been hindered by the widespread nature, and the fact our forces were being reduced. We didn't have anywhere near enough people to rescue hostages in such numbers. The outgoing left wing government would have dithered in ordering any responses by UK forces, whilst also offering praise to the Volgs for helping in a moment of constitutional crisis.
NATO would have been told "stay out, because we have our missiles pointed at you all".
In this way my naïve younger self felt that the Volgs would have thrown the country into chaos, kept NATO at bay, and have already sent further aircraft and ships with more troops. Thus within a day they effectively controlled the country.

As I said, full of plot holes and improbabilities, but it was an idea that appealed to me back then.
 
Asp

I like this scenario and would love to see you make it into a story/timeline at some point. But I have one question. If Britain is invaded do you think we would be crossing the nuclear threshold? I don't see this scenario remaining strictly conventional. I think if the UK is invaded we could be looking at tactical nuclear weapons being used if not on British soil then on key staging areas for the invasion to cut off supplies.

Glad you like it.

The good news in this scenario is that it doesn’t violate a clearly laid down nuclear red line like crossing the Rhine for example. It’s also pretty clearly a desperate move with little chance of working and things in Germany are already stalemated. Those things prevent the British leadership from freaking out.

I would assume if the WarPact forces were stoped within Germany than tac nucs were used. The landing area for a month seen Sea Lion would be decimated by aircraft and artillery.

In 1985 it would have been possible for both sides to fight without tactical nuclear weapons coming into play.
 

Deleted member 9338

Not unlike how they quickly over came Afghanistan.
OK I know there were no ships involved.

Many years ago when the world and I were younger, there was a new magazine called 2000AD (and its still going strong today). My favourite story was Savage. In this the Russians, cleverly disguised as the Volgan Empire (for reasons of not upsetting the Russians) invaded the UK, following a left wing government ejecting America from British bases. The Volgs were nasty thugs, shooting anyone that got in their way so that we could hate them and Savage, a truck driver who's family die in the invasion, becomes a one man resistance whirlwind, destroying Volgs in many improbable ways. The royal family fled to Canada, and a long occupation ensued. Of course it all came good and the Volgs were eventually ejected following an American invasion from Ireland.

At the time I was sufficiently impressed that I tried to work out a more plausible way for the Volgs to invade. Looking back my ideas were naïve, relied on many factors all working perfectly and were full of plot holes. I clearly knew even less about military matters then than I do now, but a quick summary of my idea is this (and I'll stick to saying Volgs, but I do mean Russians):

The Volgs are playing the long game. For several years, they make peaceful overtures to various NATO countries, especially the UK. Tensions ease between the 2 sides.
They get us all used to regular convoys sailing past with aid and supplies to places like Cuba, Central America and Africa. Volgan flights took British holiday makers to see the steeps of the Volgan Empire and bought happy smiling Volgans to visit merry olde England. They were cunning, my Volgs.
A left wing government pulls us out of NATO and ejects the Americans. Ideally the Volgs would want the British army still camped in Germany to keep them out of the way, along with the RAF ground attack units, but that would be impossible, so they (or I) settled for the government also rapidly reducing our forces (as if any British government would really do that!). Although kit wasn't scrapped, it would take time to get it back into service and recall the crews you'd just dismissed. Much of what was left was either on Salisbury Plain, in Wales on exercise or at Catterick in the north.
Another election follows and ideally for the Volgs the left would lose, although that isn't actually essential.
The Volgs declare that the right and America fixed the result and the left is the legitimate government; they promise aid.
The invasion itself:
At this time, several units are all in place to act as one.
A small convoy of ships carrying aid abroad is passing the UK. A small(ish) amphibious group, which included a Sverdlov class cruiser with plenty of naval guns, is returning to Russia after exercises in Africa. At a set time (my Volgs had superb timepieces and coordinated it all perfectly) these 2 groups turned into UK waters. The military group is in the Channel and heads into the Thames estuary. From memory it dumped a reinforced Naval Infantry Regiment or two, plus armour (PT-76's) etc that swept along the north of the Thames into London. They don't have to actually reach anywhere important, just isolate large numbers of Londoners in and around the east end. The Sverdlov beached itself and provided fire support. Of course the convoy would have been shadowed by the Royal Navy, but the frigate and destroyer assigned to this task were caught unawares and sunk in a few minutes of close range gunfire. The aid convoy turned out to be carrying a battlegroup of Mechanised Infantry (probably a regiment or so) and supporting units that it lands in the south west somewhere. Several merchant vessels, sailing under flags of convenience, scuttle themselves in harbours around the UK, their crews arming themselves and dashing ashore to cause more chaos.
Simultaneously with this several scheduled flights from Volg and its satellite nations in both Europe and Africa are over the UK or on their way. They land at places like Stanstead, Gatwick and various other airports. Of course they were all actually carrying Airborne troops this time. Some of the flights also included air traffic control experts from the Volgan air force. They seize the airports and hostages.
Sleeper units already in the country hit a mix of targets (power stations and transformers, random shootings on the motorway etc) to cause chaos. Some took hostages.
Spetsnaz units landed the night before are near the airbases on the east coast. As the first RAF response thunders down the runway, they are caught unawares by SA-7 missiles. The spetsnaz then head off for other tasks, but the RAF is stalled whilst the regions around the airbases are made safe.
I felt in this way, the Volgs would have landed a couple of divisions of troops unopposed, and in the process taken numerous hostages. The UK's ability to respond would have been hindered by the widespread nature, and the fact our forces were being reduced. We didn't have anywhere near enough people to rescue hostages in such numbers. The outgoing left wing government would have dithered in ordering any responses by UK forces, whilst also offering praise to the Volgs for helping in a moment of constitutional crisis.
NATO would have been told "stay out, because we have our missiles pointed at you all".
In this way my naïve younger self felt that the Volgs would have thrown the country into chaos, kept NATO at bay, and have already sent further aircraft and ships with more troops. Thus within a day they effectively controlled the country.

As I said, full of plot holes and improbabilities, but it was an idea that appealed to me back then.
 
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