Red Dawn: The USSR Wins The Cold War

The scenario assumes that the theory in New Lies For Old is essentially true and was implemented.

The theory of convergence suggested that the Soviets would stage a grand strategic con by making it seem as if the USSR and E European satellites were becoming democratic. This was a new play of the old Leninist NEP strategy of the 1920s, the goal being to elicit entry into the EU and massive investment into the Eastern Block. Dismantling of the Warsaw Pact, fall of the Belirn Wall and German re-unification were all strategic sacrifices that Soviet planners scripted in their massive con effort. That NATO remains is largely irrelevant because it has become irrelevant as an institution in Europe.

Even as democracy was blooming in Russia and Eastern Europe, nowhere had there been any purges. Many communists remained in the intelligence world of the former communist sates. Others have used money they had stolen during the communist era and kept in Swiss bank accounts to now invest and buy out various state business enterprises in order to create a shadowy network of power that reached into the world of organized crime.

In politics of the newly democratized nations of Eastern Europe former leaders of democratic movements--who had in reality been under control of the communists--have taken leading roles and presidents and prime ministers, resisting ideas of an accounting of the past and holding those responsible for various human rights abuses responsible. This resistance in fact protects those communists in the intelligence world from being ferreted out and exposed.

Meanwhile, in America a left-leaning president is elected, a man who had in his youth visited the Communist world. Once president, he argues for a policy of democratizing China through free trade and succeeds in opening the door for China's exports. China uses this opening to attract enormous investment and technology. After 20 years, China becomes America's number 1 lender and produces virtually all consumer products. China's computers and servers are being used in most OECD nations, giving China the ability to disrupt most Western European communications. If China wanted to, it could cause significant economic disruption in the US by halting exports.

Meanwhile, the EU is in deep financial trouble and its future is in doubt. The crisis in the Southern European nations does not get better but gets worse, so much so that they eventually leave the Union as Germany becomes unwilling and unable to continue to support them. After their exit, the Union breaks apart, leaving a continent in chaos.

The Collapse of the EU hits the US hard, sending its economy into a tailspin. China decides to help the US along and starts to dump it's immense stock of US treasuries so that the dollar collapses and the West goes into a depression. Due to collapse of the Dollar, China suspends exports to the US, causing an instant economic collapse as clothes, computers, medicines and other products are no longer available. Most electronics produced in China also stop working--it turns out that China had baked into the chips it produces a secret code that if triggered would render devices inoperable. Global communications are disrupted and no longer operative.

With Europe and America in economic chaos, Russia and China offer a new order, one based on brotherhood and unity, a world government. This world government, however, is suspiciously leftist and eschews private property rights and civil liberties. In fact, it is a global in scale Union of Soviets that offers food, medicine and clothing to those countries that join it.

Most European states join the Union, leaving the US isolated and broken. In the third world, a revolution sweeps the land as Islam unites many nations against the US and the West. Of course, the new Sublime Caliphate is friendly toward the China-Russian sponsored and controlled Union.
 
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Red Dawn

It would also help if, instead of the resilient Karol Wojtyla, that a more sympathetic and/or weak-spined Pope is in office, someone who is quite determined to turn the other cheek and reach out:eek:, no matter the cost.
 
The theory of convergence suggested that the Soviets would stage a grand strategic con by making it seem as if the USSR and E European satellites were becoming democratic.

Just because they were deomocratic doesn't make them appealing partners! Why would Europe swing from the USA to the USSR! They offer NOTHING.

You have said the Euro Market crashes. Why? How does the USSR survive this and the USA doesnt? It also appears that China and America are major trading partners, so why does Europe a market which has apprently opened to the Soviet markets smash the US economy.

What you are propsing in having Europe marry a zombie and not expect to wonder what the stench is when the flesh falls off. The USSR CANNOT, repeat CANNOT! Keep up this ruse indefinitely which is the premise of this whole thing!
 
I think you need to read the scenario before you criticize it. The shift takes time. And Russia has natural resources. China had little and look how much of a trading partner it become. Why the EU crashes is explained in the scenario--South European nations go the way of Greece IOTL. Russia doesn't crash because China is buying its oil and gas even though the EU market has collapsed. The economic downturn will also be qualitatively much worse in Western world than it will be in Russia and China.

The basic problem I have, is that it reuires the USSR to keep up a lie that is an attractive trading partner in order to draw in investment. Long term it isn't going to work, the USSR does not have the ability to outlast the US economy, which is so much stronger it's not funny.
 
I think you need to read the scenario before you criticize it. The shift takes time. And Russia has natural resources. China had little and look how much of a trading partner it become. Why the EU crashes is explained in the scenario--South European nations go the way of Greece IOTL. Russia doesn't crash because China is buying its oil and gas even though the EU market has collapsed. The economic downturn will also be qualitatively much worse in Western world than it will be in Russia and China.

How is China able to buy Russian oil and gas at prices that will keep the Russian economy afloat? If their biggest trading partner is the US and the US economy is imploding with the dollar rapidly turning into toilet paper there goes China's main source of revenue. With Europe collapsing there is no possible way the remaining global economy will be able to support the, at this point, overstretched Chinese economic empire. China and Russia would be too busy shooting mobs of pissed off, unemployed people to even try offering a credible One World Government option.

I call ASB.
 
But China's economy is not damaged. It also doesn't need the Western economies to survive because China has enormous excess productive capacity, one that its economy cannot support. Most of its economy is actually pretty low level and would not be significantly adversely affected by a sudden drop in export production. The opposite is not true--Western economies cannot function without the Chinese production. China's population is a lot more pliant to the regime than it would seem. There would be some rioting, but the Chinese would just kill everyone who rioted and the rest would fall in line.

1.) Economics do not work like that. If China's economic boom has been built on the back of exports the sudden collapse of those exports means all that productive capacity is going to have nothing to support it. For China to have a PRAYER of pulling this off it would need to have a per capita income well in excess of the United States which is not going to happen in the time frame you've outlined.

2.) If you nuke the dollar just as the global recession is taking hold then all of the capital holding up the Chinese economy will evaporate. This goes double if the euro disintegrates at the same time.

3.) The Chinese population is nowhere near as pliant as you think. Having studied the modern history of China there has been a long litany of labor uprisings since the 1980s that make the worst of America's Gilded Age look like schoolyard fights. In many cases the Chinese government is forced to call in troops from other provinces to quell revolts, like their use of Mongolian troops to crush Tienanmen Square. If there is civil unrest in every part of China, which will happen when the economy goes ass over teakettle, the usual Chinese response not only will not do but it is entirely possible some of those troops and police will join their friends and neighbors.

4.) It makes no sense for the Russians and Chinese to suddenly be the only source of food and medical supplies. That would require the biomedical industry to completely relocate to Russia and China AND for the rest of the world to think it's a good idea to stop farming. There is no possible way the Russians and Chinese will be in a position to use food and medicine as leverage to force global unification.

This scenario is running on paranoia and handwavium. What you're proposing is patently, obviously impossible without ASB.
 
1.) Economics do not work like that. If China's economic boom has been built on the back of exports the sudden collapse of those exports means all that productive capacity is going to have nothing to support it. For China to have a PRAYER of pulling this off it would need to have a per capita income well in excess of the United States which is not going to happen in the time frame you've outlined.

They can maintain some production for whatever the market in China is without any significant disruption. They will need to close a few factory cities, but there are 100 million unemployed in China today. What will another 50 million unemployed mean? Absolutely nothing in a country of China's population. There are about 20 million unemployed in the US IOTL and that hasn't disrupted the economy in a fundamental way. Neither would tens of millions of unemployed in China be much of a disruption.

2.) If you nuke the dollar just as the global recession is taking hold then all of the capital holding up the Chinese economy will evaporate. This goes double if the euro disintegrates at the same time.

China can be self-sufficient in a way that the West no longer can because China has become the world's factory. Global finance here doesn't matter, just the ability to produce things you need to survive. The US can't do that today IOTL. Replacing Chinese production IOTL would take years and hundreds of billions in investment in plant and equipment. The US has lost more than 6 million industrial jobs in the last 20 years and countless factories have been shipped to China. You can't reverse that in a few months.

3.) The Chinese population is nowhere near as pliant as you think. Having studied the modern history of China there has been a long litany of labor uprisings since the 1980s that make the worst of America's Gilded Age look like schoolyard fights. In many cases the Chinese government is forced to call in troops from other provinces to quell revolts, like their use of Mongolian troops to crush Tienanmen Square. If there is civil unrest in every part of China, which will happen when the economy goes ass over teakettle, the usual Chinese response not only will not do but it is entirely possible some of those troops and police will join their friends and neighbors.

The government will tell the people that things are bad and everyone needs to sacrifice because the world's economy collapsed. IN fact, they will blame the West for being irresponsible and causing the collapse with their greed. They will never tell the Chinese the truth. Why would the Chinese rise up if they were told that it was the West's fault that the global economy collapsed?

4.) It makes no sense for the Soviets and Chinese to suddenly be the only source of food and medical supplies. That would require the biomedical industry to completely relocate to Russia and China AND for the rest of the world to think it's a good idea to stop farming. There is no possible way the Russians and Chinese will be in a position to use food and medicine as leverage to force global unification.

Actually, China already produces most of the world's medicines and or the chemical components needed. The same is true for the rest of products. China literally is the world's factory because it makes economic sense to make things there. We are not talking about China suddenly becoming the only place; China has become the place as a result of years of global trade patterns that made it economically the only place to produce many things. While China is not the only source, to replace their production would be too costly. Where would the US get the hundreds of billions to build the plants?

This scenario is running on paranoia and handwavium. What you're proposing is patently, obviously impossible without ASB.
 
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They can maintain some production for whatever the market in China is without any significant disruption. They will need to close a few factory cities, but there are 100 million unemployed in China today. What will another 50 million unemployed mean? Absolutely nothing in a country of China's population. There are about 20 million unemployed in the US IOTL and that hasn't disrupted the economy in a fundamental way. Neither would tens of millions of unemployed in China be much of a disruption.

This is still the place where your entire TL falls apart. The collapse of the economy isn't going to up the unemployed population by 50% in a few places, it's going to decimate entire economic sectors just from the damage done by imploding supply chains alone. You're going to be looking at something more to the order of the unemployed population increasing by AT LEAST 200% if somehow China has a strong enough consumer base to purchase all the products they are making.

Even if China somehow manages to avoid massive unemployment they are going to be facing a currency implosion that will be on par with the recent collapses of the dollar and euro. When that many things go wrong in a very short period of time you have the perfect setup for a popular revolution.

So again, ASB because economics do not work like that.
 
This is still the place where your entire TL falls apart. The collapse of the economy isn't going to up the unemployed population by 50% in a few places, it's going to decimate entire economic sectors just from the damage done by imploding supply chains alone. You're going to be looking at something more to the order of the unemployed population increasing by AT LEAST 200% if somehow China has a strong enough consumer base to purchase all the products they are making.

Even if China somehow manages to avoid massive unemployment they are going to be facing a currency implosion that will be on par with the recent collapses of the dollar and euro. When that many things go wrong in a very short period of time you have the perfect setup for a popular revolution.

So again, ASB because economics do not work like that.

Since the euro has already vanished, the only choice would be the dollar or the renminbi. Initially, the fall of the euro would mean that the dollar's price would rise as investors sought refuge. This would lower US interest rates and allow the US to borrow more at virtually nothing. China would benefit as its dollar reserves would be worth more. China is still vulnerable here because it can spend the dollars only at a loss on stuff from any other place than the US--the dollars in China's central bank must return to the US. All China can do is refuse to buy any more US tbills. Which it would refuse to do. Instead, China would start an effort to set up arrangements to replace dollar trade with its main trade partners, such as it has IOTL with Brazil. This would eliminate China's vulnerability in a dollar collapse. Once all these trade deals are ready, Chin could begin an economic attack by starting to trickle its dollar reserves onto the global markets. This would cause problems for the US by increasing the cost of borrowing. The US is wide open by needing to borrow hundreds of billions a month to sustain its spending. If China really squeezed, it could cause Washington to give in without causing the dollar to collapse. How? The US would face the reality that it would be no longer able to borrow due to the dollar sales by China, which would force the Fed to offer higher and higher rates on US tbills. Anything over 6 percent on sovereign issues is unfeasible for the US. So in Washington the President would start begging the Chinese premier to let up. China would make conditions and the President would cave in or lose the economy. China turns the US into a de facto client state. The US begins to close bases around the globe as a cost saving measure and stops all weapons programs. The best part would be that now China would start to "invest" in America the dollars it has accumulated, buying control over America's remaining industrial capacity--all quite legal and even cheered on by politicians who would tell the American public that investment by Chinese will mean jobs, jobs, jobs!
 
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"New lies for Old" is a dangerous book, whose ultimate end is to justify perpetual subjection of the Western world to the US, period. Most that Golitsyn predicted has indeed become reality. The KGB is still evidently in control of Russia, plus some of the Soviet republics. But that still doesn't explain the attempted coup of 1991 -unless it too was part of the devilish Commie conspiracy (lacking only fluoridization of water, actually a very capitalist scam according to other sources).
I can't see any giant Lie around, only the organized, and quite transparent for any acute observer, attempt by a determined clique of bureaucrats, security officers and former party officials to influence events in the former USSR and worldwide for their own advantage. This is no different, in the end, from what daily happens in the suites and offices of the great merchant banking and insurance CEOS, and in the Bilderbergs of this world.
Why should these former Communists, that is absolute cynicists, be in the end more dangerous than the vampires that brought the Western the brink of ruin, after developing the "free-market" ideology to cover their moves?
I invite to take what defectors from the East said and wrote with a grain of salt: they deserve no more trust, on average, than, say, a Thierry Meissan today. Read, if you like, but think with your head, and ask always "who's behind" and "why" things are written down.
 
This old story about China screwing the US economy ignores the part where China gets somewhere between triple and tenfold screwed in return. If their largest trading partner and issuer of 1 Trillion Dollars in bonds goes south, they face incredible social unrest. Their economy only works as it produces jobs, even via means of manipulating their currency.

China is likely to collapse outright if the United States does. More likely, a left wing United States does things like try to restore the 1950s economic policies to add more industry inside the country and strengthen the middle class.

Ultimately, if the USA goes down there is likely a global depression, true. But global depressions aren't likely to see a return of old, proven exploitative ideas. It'll be new forces in play.
 
This old story about China screwing the US economy ignores the part where China gets somewhere between triple and tenfold screwed in return. If their largest trading partner and issuer of 1 Trillion Dollars in bonds goes south, they face incredible social unrest. Their economy only works as it produces jobs, even via means of manipulating their currency.

China is likely to collapse outright if the United States does. More likely, a left wing United States does things like try to restore the 1950s economic policies to add more industry inside the country and strengthen the middle class.

Ultimately, if the USA goes down there is likely a global depression, true. But global depressions aren't likely to see a return of old, proven exploitative ideas. It'll be new forces in play.

China doesn't get "screwed". I just explained the economics of how: China sets up bilateral swap deals with countries it trades with, especially the other BRICS, such as Brazil. A swap deal means that Brazil gets a loan in yuan to buy stuff from China. China, in turn gets a loan from Brazil to buy stuff there. A loss of 3 trillion dollars of reserves in that context actually doesn't mean anything for China's economy and its ability to trade with other BRICS. China also doesn't need to break the dollar to make the US into a client state, as I explained above.
 
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