Rebuplicans win the Spanish Civil War...

[Mort]

Actually, i think Spain would be in much the same situation as i was when Franco won. Too damaged by war, in too much or an economic collapse to support a another war. I think Germany wouldn't invade, not because they dont want too, but, its too far away to stay a resonable target. Think about Supply lines and the like. Why do you think they installed a puppet government in south France?

Italy on the other hand, is an entirly different Kettle of fish. Mussolini could hardly keep his desire to have spain, or at least just the coast and the balerics, hidden. The prospect of Taking Gibralta is salivating as well for him. So what about this happend. (I might wright a timeline later) Instead of devoting all off his efforts to Greece and Africa (I still say he would take Albania, though), he turns towards Sapin and launches and invasion of the coastal regions. Therefore spain still becomes a front in the second world war, but forces on both sides arnt spread to thin.

 

[Faeelin]

Considering that the Republican regime started out by failing to win the constitutionally required runoff election and instead seizing power, and in most of the war was dominated by communist extremists who often seemed to spend far more time murdering and betraying their allies, especially the anarcho-syndicalists, I wouldn't have much hope for thing going very well.

Umm, the general blame is placed on the nationalists for launching the coup.

On 15th January 1936, Manuel Azaña helped to establish a coalition of parties on the political left to fight the national elections due to take place the following month. This included the Socialist Party (PSOE), Communist Party ( PCE), Esquerra Party and the Republican Union Party.

The Popular Front, as the coalition became known, advocated the restoration of Catalan autonomy, amnesty for political prisoners, agrarian reform, an end to political blacklists and the payment of damages for property owners who suffered during the revolt of 1934. The Anarchists refused to support the coalition and instead urged people not to vote.

Right-wing groups in Spain formed the National Front. This included the CEDA and the Carlists. The Falange Española did not officially join but most of its members supported the aims of the National Front.

The Spanish people voted on Sunday, 16th February, 1936. Out of a possible 13.5 million voters, over 9,870,000 participated in the 1936 General Election. 4,654,116 people (34.3) voted for the Popular Front, whereas the National Front obtained 4,503,505 (33.2) and the centre parties got 526,615 (5.4). The Popular Front, with 263 seats out of the 473 in the Cortes formed the new government.

The Popular Front government immediately upset the conservatives by releasing all left-wing political prisoners. The government also introduced agrarian reforms that penalized the landed aristocracy. Other measures included transferring right-wing military leaders such as Francisco Franco to posts outside Spain, outlawing the Falange Española and granting Catalonia political and administrative autonomy.

As a result of these measures the wealthy took vast sums of capital out of the country. This created an economic crisis and the value of the peseta declined which damaged trade and tourism. With prices rising workers demanded higher wages. This situation led to a series of strikes in Spain.

On the 10th May 1936 the conservative Niceto Alcala Zamora was ousted as president and replaced by the left-wing Manuel Azaña. Soon afterwards Spanish Army officers, including Emilio Mola, Francisco Franco, Juan Yague, Gonzalo Queipo de Llanoand José Sanjurjo, began plotting to overthrow the Popular Front government. This resulted in the outbreak of the Spanish Civil War on 17th July, 1936.

President Manuel Azaña appointed Diego Martinez Barrio as prime minister on 18th July 1936 and asked him to negotiate with the rebels. He contacted Emilio Mola and offered him the post of Minister of War in his government. He refused and when Azaña realized that the Nationalists were unwilling to compromise, he sacked Martinez Barrio and replaced him with José Giral. To protect the Popular Front government, Giral gave orders for arms to be distributed to left-wing organizations that opposed the military uprising.

http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/2WWspain.htm

 

[MarkA]

If the Republicans won despite German and Italian intervention, the confidence of the two dictators would be badly shaken. Hitler would probably be less inclined to gamble and Mussoilini would probably try and come to an accomadation with Britain and France.

 

[Mort]

Would WW2 even happen? If Germany had been forced to back down over the Rhineland Inccident, what would Hitler do? Its all very well saying Germany will just steamroll over France and Spain, but thats saying that war is declared on schedual in 1939. Im thinking if this happened, and the Italians played it stupid, a second world war would happen where Italy was the main instigator. Ideas?

 

[LordKalvan]

If Spain goes the other way (and Saar is not militarised) WW2 is of the calendar (what to do: September 1, WW2 )

Unless uncle Joe tries his hand: Finland, Romania, Poland...

 

[Grimm Reaper]

Faeelin, the article forgets to mention that a runoff in the event of no one receiving a majority was required, and this runoff did not take place as the Republicans simply declared themselves the government. It would be as if, in the United States, a third party carried one or two states, and no party had a majority in the electoral college so the GOP or Democrats simply declared that they had won.

It also forgets that attacks on newspapers and roving death squads began immediately after the government was declared.

By the way, the article only mentions how 72.9 of the votes cast were voted so that has me curious too.

 

[Karlos]

Yes. That's why the military made their coup, to restore a full and real democracy with no tricks. It took them a while, though.
The Spanish republic had one of the most socially advanced governements of Europe in its time. The forces behind Franco were the Old Regime ones, the landowners, the church and the new fascist-like movements. Democracy was an alien concept for them.

 

[Derek Jackson]

WI the International Communist leadership had been in the hands of folk who realized that they had an interest in uniting against Fascism and did not spend as much time killing trots, anarchists and democrats as Franco's folk

 

[schrammy]

with out reoccupying the demilitarized zone in the Rhineland hitler might become a lote more cautiouse and german arms production also would not reach to any where near what it was in OTL.

the Anschluss might still happen so would eventualy the reoccup of the Rhineland but under a verry dffrent pretext.

with no german intervention and a fer biger soviet intervention in spain
the allies would likely still see the soviets as the bigger thread and hitler being seen as just a nother dictator by no means more agressive than Mussoilini.

the holcoust might never have happend because the nazis needed to keep up the fasade of a relativly peacefull and civalized nation for a longer time and germany and the rest of the axis might have still found them self at war against the sovietuinion sooner or later tough this time the allies would

probarly have favored the axis, depending on the conditions of the start of this war they might even supply the axis with weapons and supplies.

 

[Mort]

WI the International Communist leadership had been in the hands of folk who realized that they had an interest in uniting against Fascism and did not spend as much time killing trots, anarchists and democrats as Franco's folk

Thats an intresting idea. Say, an early Anti Fascist alliance?

 

[Mort]

with out reoccupying the demilitarized zone in the Rhineland hitler might become a lote more cautiouse and german arms production also would not reach to any where near what it was in OTL.

I Imagine arms production would continue, and at a fair pace. Hitler just didnt seem the kind to take a slap in the wrist as a great impendiment.

the Anschluss might still happen so would eventualy the reoccup of the Rhineland but under a verry dffrent pretext.

Im thinking Aschuluss would happen right on Schedual, actually. While the backing came from Germany, a lot of the work, actually happen in Austria itself.

with no german intervention and a fer biger soviet intervention in spain the allies would likely still see the soviets as the bigger thread and hitler being seen as just a nother dictator by no means more agressive than Mussoilini.

I dont nessacarily know that, but, at the same time, it was not something that the british or the french wanted, a communist Spain. What im seeing is most likely, is that when it looks like the Repuplicans are winning, Britain and France increase their support for them. Just making sure, they dont get sidetracked....

the holcoust might never have happend because the nazis needed to keep up the fasade of a relativly peacefull and civalized nation for a longer time and germany and the rest of the axis might have still found them self at war against the sovietuinion sooner or later tough this time the allies would

Holocaust - Maybe. Persecution of Jews - Definatly. Thats going to contiue regardless. I mean, 1936 Olympic games, it didnt stop then, why would it stop after a slap in the wrist? War with Russia? I see that as a increased liekly hood. WHat if, instead of agreeing to partion Poland, they go to war over it? Then Italy, invades Spain, which obviously might symapthise with Russia. Britain and France get involved over Spain, leading to an increased war in the mediterian. That might be an intresting scenario.

 

[Wozza]

The French marching into the Rhineland is a much bigger POD than this!!!!


Hitler would almost certainly have been deposed, with collossal consequences.

 

[MarkA]

Yes. That's why the military made their coup, to restore a full and real democracy with no tricks. It took them a while, though.
The Spanish republic had one of the most socially advanced governements of Europe in its time. The forces behind Franco were the Old Regime ones, the landowners, the church and the new fascist-like movements. Democracy was an alien concept for them.

The military coup was to restore democracy? NO! It was to depose the democratic elements in the government. It was anti-democratic. Understand? Just read Franco and other speeches by the military and the Spanish church.

 

[Mort]

Actually i think (or at least i hope) that was sarcasm by Karlos. Aint no way that Franco came to power for any thing but Franco...

 

[wkwillis]

So if the British and the French are neutral instead of neutral on the side of the fascists, Spain becomes some kind of socialist country?
1. But would it be a democratic socialism?
2. And would the experienced soldiers fight on the French side in WWII?
3. At the Ardennes gap?

 

[Grimm Reaper]

Would it be a democratic kind of socialism?

The actions of the Republicans from the start, and especially after Stalin started playing games, suggests otherwise.

If Spain had entered WWII with the British and French, fear the results. Hitler invades and conquers Spain easily, and has no trouble reconstituting Spain as an ally. Of course, while there he takes Gibralter which may well collapse the British positio and might just decide to finish the British off before going after Stalin.

MarkA, no more undemocratic than the regime Franco ultimately overthrew.

 

[Mort]

Would it be a democratic kind of socialism?

The actions of the Republicans from the start, and especially after Stalin started playing games, suggests otherwise.

If Spain had entered WWII with the British and French, fear the results. Hitler invades and conquers Spain easily, and has no trouble reconstituting Spain as an ally. Of course, while there he takes Gibralter which may well collapse the British positio and might just decide to finish the British off before going after Stalin.

MarkA, no more undemocratic than the regime Franco ultimately overthrew.

I dont think Hitler could conquer Spain. His forces were large, but not impossibly so. Thats why he could only occupy half of france at any one time. Spain was too far away for it to be completely occupied. BUT, if the war in africa had gone better for what ever reason, there might of been an invasion similar to the invasion of Italy.

Thats assuming of course that WW2 happens on schedual.

 

[Wendell]

Maybe Vichy France gets a piece of Spain, if they help Hitler to invade?

 

[Wendell]

Interesting TL. I've occasionally wondered what would happen if the Spanish civil war was still being fought by September 1939 (and became another front in the wider world war), but to have the Republicans win by March 1939 is also a promising possibility. Which side Spain will take come WW2 will depend on a number of factors; if the moderates manage to keep the Communists under control, it will likely join the French and British, if only to preempt being invaded itself. If, OTOH, the Communists successfully take over from the other leftist factions, Spain will align itself on the USSR and consider itself bound by the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact--until, of course, Operation Barbarossa begins.

Who's to say that Barbarossa still happens? What becomes of Spain's remaining colonies?

 

[Grimm Reaper]

A few facts:

The territory Hitler occupied at his peak went far beyond the size of Spain.

Hitler was easily capable of an occupation of all of France, as he did for more than 18 months after the Allies landed in French North Africa.

In Spain Hitler would have had a special advantage. Considering attitudes in Spain in our OTL, and how the increasingly Stalinist Republicans would have behaved, it is safe to say that something like 90% of the population either welcomes the Nazi liberators or at least sees Franco as no worse.

Once the Germans go through the Spanish gulag they have a domestic occupation force needing only a few weeks of rest and proper food and medical care. And some of the armaments captured from the Republican regime.

Now we have the Luftwaffe and wolf packs stationed minutes from Gibralter and the lifeline to Malta.

Does this even change much elsewhere? All that probably happens is that the Battle of Britain is reduced or cancelled and by January of 1941 the British position is even worse. This, of course, does not consider the chance that much of the British army and air force weren't destroyed trying to hold the last ally on the continent.

As for the effects on Greece standing up to Hitler's junior partner or a certain coup in Yugoslavia going off on schedule...