reality check: Hot War

The odds of Germany having the plans for Barbarossa existing in mid-1939 are simply zero. They don't know when they will invade or with what forces but the plans already are lying around in plain sight.

That's the biggest problem. The USSR wasn't ready for a war with the Reich in 1940. Would delaying Barbarossa (I have no idea what the Germans would be doing in the meantime, trying to defeat Britain or whatever) give the Russians enough time to launch a pre-emptive attack?
 
Wait a minute, Stalin finds about about the not-yet written Operation Barbarossa in Mid-August, so he invades on July 25th?

In any case, any Soviet success of any sort strikes me as being a disaster in the making, due to the parlous state of the military of the USSR in 1940.
 
The OP as written is highly implausible (plus three posts one after another is bad form when two of them are bumps). On the other hand;


Handwaivem: Soviet Backstab on Hitler immediately after the fall of France.

Let's hand wave the how's, and just ask about the butterflies. Firstly the Red Army at this time, even with hasty preparation is going to perform horribly, and the Soviet offensive is going to stalemate fairly quickly in central Poland. The minor states of Europe, like Romania and Hungary are going to be backing Hitler and Germany against this Soviet aggression, meaning that the southern Ukrainian front may be terribly 'in flux' but the river line in Bessarabia might be a good boundary.

While the Soviets won't have their army shattered by leader apathy and German Blitzkrieg, they will suffer the problem of being 'the aggressive warmonger' as much as Hitler was.

Geopolitically I would suggest this would force Churchill and Britain away from the Soviets as much as Germany. While the enemy of my enemy is my friend, and Britain will be hoping that Stalin will kick Hitlers butt hard, he will also be petrified of a 'Red Europe' created by Stalin actually defeating Hitler.

This leds to the odd state of affairs where Hitler and Churchill might actually become the proverbial friends with a common enemy. It all depends on the deal struck.

For a start, France has been defeated on the map and spirit, but not economically and millitarally. Therefore the odd case might be for an Anglo-German armistice for Hitler returning France to french rule, and the French making a concession to Germany over historical territorial disputes.

If Hitler accepts such a 'deal' is unknown, but depending on Soviet successes, who knows...

In such a case it is unlikely Britain and France would be German 'allies' but a cessation of hostilities between the Axis and 'Entente' might be a fair trade. Hitler getting what he wanted; Poland and France and Britain getting what they want 'status quo'.

Of course France in general will be outraged, but also nationally crushed. This might lead to internal problems and a complete rethink of French geopolitical position (since it will have been treated by Germany and Britain like a second rate power).

With a 'Britain prepared for war', and a Germany rebuilt under militaristic principles will be a formidable match for the Soviets and Stalin might have to rethink his position. However Britain won't be able to do that much in manpower to the fight, and Germany will not have had the 'loot of west Russia' to fuel its war machine...something the Soviets do have.

Thus the Red Army will still be able to perform its miracle rebuilding during a time of war...and better than historically. This may lead to a very drawn out and protracted war against Communism.

Of course if Britain and Germany come to armistice, then Japan will have 'free hand in Asia' at Britians expense, on the other hand British, French and Dutch colonial holdings won't be at risk.

Japan makes an ideal ally for Britain and Germany in such a case to strike against the Soviets in the east and may get much British help there to realise the advance north scheme to invade Siberia and tap its mineral wealth...thus greatly changing the war in the east.

All said and done even with three of the Great Powers arrayed against the Red Army, long term the Soviets have the manpower and industry to bleed these other nations dry and the war could go on for much longer than in OTL.

In such a case the atomic bomb could be developed by an Anglo-German-Japanese alliance of expertise since all three powers were contemporary atomic research leaders.

America then gets a major wakeup call when in 1946 the stalemate in Poland-Ukraine is broken by the rising of a miniature sun on Earth. Heralding the near end of the war to end all wars (again).


With Europe mostly under autocratic leadership at this time, with only Britain, France and the Scandinavian nations not, you might have an early push for a 'European Union' since most of Europe has banded together to fight Socialism.

If the Europeans 'win', then Germany will gain Poland, Lithuania and Belorussia, while the Ukraine and Baltic states would be freed. Russia in Muscovy would still be permitted to exsit, but large tracts of Mongolia and East Siberia would be given to Japan.

If the Soviets 'win' then they might push for Poland, Iran and Turkey to join the Union as well as force the ending of autocratic regimes in Europe under threat of vaporising the historic and cultural significance of their major towns and cities to be replaced with cold, hard, scientific Communism.



All a bit of flight of fancy.
 

person

Banned
My plan had Stalin launching huge militarization project (New deal) in 1941 involving turning the gulags into industrial slave camps, military reorganization, and bringing in communists from comintern parties to train as The Foreign Army of the Soviet Union, begin by Lenin who snuck out the international brigades and cps militia with the soviet advisors there experience was used to train the red army. They did not invade Finland but trained from 28 to 41.
 
My plan had Stalin launching huge militarization project (New deal) in 1941 involving turning the gulags into industrial slave camps, military reorganization, and bringing in communists from comintern parties to train as The Foreign Army of the Soviet Union, begin by Lenin who snuck out the international brigades and cps militia with the soviet advisors there experience was used to train the red army. They did not invade Finland but trained from 28 to 41.

1941 is after your POD, the international Comintern parties did not appear to have had a major part in the OTL war, and not invading Finland could actually worsen the Red Army's performance, by hiding the need for reforms.

What you really need is a POD some time during the purges, preferably with a less insane/paranoid Stalin.
 

person

Banned
You don't understand instead of purging the army he spends from
33 to40 completely reforming the army and the gulag system. The gulags are turned into industrial slave camps supplying the army with weapons. The comintern sends lots of its people to "live socialism" really to become an army for Stalin. He also saves much of the communist fighters in the Spanish civil war and all the briggadistas, their experience is used to train the red army.
 
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