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First off, I don't think the Articles will ever be anything like a viable national government.

The reason why I think the Confederation could continue on would be as a defensive pact of sorts. Perhaps something like the German Confederation. The latter ultimately meant very little and was merely a vehicle for Prussia and Austria to wage a bloodless war for influence.

I could see the states seeing the usefulness of such a organization, where outside of matters of defense they would be left to their own devices. The Confederation in OTL already allowed such a devolution. The Articles allowed states to print their own money, raise their own tariffs, make their own foreign policy, and even make war on each other.

This is the situation I could see developing in the Confederation:

In the North, New England would most likely consolidate into a federal/confederal state. This would be supported by Mass. and New Hampshire. Mass. because they would most likely be the political heart of any such state and New Hampshire in order to gain support for their growing border war in the Green Mountains with New York(and Ethan Allen's men). It's possible that New England could be the Prussian analogue.

In the South, in order to further their interests(agriculture and slavery) they form a looser version of New England, more an economic union than a political one. This could be the Austrian analogue.

Of course European influence will be much higher ITTL.

All of this could be a prelude to a much later American union, in the late 19th century or early 20th.

What do y'all think?
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