Realistically, how forcefully could China act after the NATO bombing of Belgrade?

fashbasher

Banned
According to Wiki:

On May 7, 1999, during the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia (Operation Allied Force), five US JDAM guided bombs hit the People's Republic of China embassy in the Belgrade district of New Belgrade, killing three Chinese reporters and outraging the Chinese public.

In OTL, China stridently condemned it and angry mobs besieged several US diplomatic installations, but Clinton apologized and the US paid a hefty settlement to China by year-end. What if the Chinese government had instead decided to fan the flames of nationalism? Could the government have gotten away with expelling all US diplomats, suspending relations with the US, or even going full North Korea and ordering all US businesses to close without risking a coup?
 
No, because the Chinese are neither crazy nor idiots. Those actions would destroy their economy on a level not seen in any industrial economy since the Great Depression and it would definitely cause a coup or revolution.
 
At the time, China's most pressing priority was restructuring its economy so it could join the WTO. Joining the WTO became a license for any government to do anything it pleased. And for that to occur, it had to overcome the objections of all members, including the US itself. While it had to partake in the venting, no one ever contemplated escalating it to cause material harm.
 
According to Wiki:

On May 7, 1999, during the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia (Operation Allied Force), five US JDAM guided bombs hit the People's Republic of China embassy in the Belgrade district of New Belgrade, killing three Chinese reporters and outraging the Chinese public.

In OTL, China stridently condemned it and angry mobs besieged several US diplomatic installations, but Clinton apologized and the US paid a hefty settlement to China by year-end. What if the Chinese government had instead decided to fan the flames of nationalism? Could the government have gotten away with expelling all US diplomats, suspending relations with the US, or even going full North Korea and ordering all US businesses to close without risking a coup?
Why would they do this?

It was clearly an accident.

I'm not saying their outrage was unjustifiable, but the Chinese government is rational and was not looking for a pretext to escalate a confrontation with the U.S., so again, why would they do more than this?
 
Could the government have gotten away with expelling all US diplomats, suspending relations with the US, or even going full North Korea and ordering all US businesses to close without risking a coup?
Probably, but doing so torpedoes their economy. No foreign businesses are going to set up there in the future with this kind of overreaction, and China’s chances of getting into the WTO are straight-up finished for 20-30 years (minimum) after this move.
 

SsgtC

Banned
Probably, but doing so torpedoes their economy. No foreign businesses are going to set up there in the future with this kind of overreaction, and China’s chances of getting into the WTO are straight-up finished for 20-30 years (minimum) after this move.

It also risks the US recognizing Taiwan as either an independent country, it shifting diplomatic recognition back to the ROC instead of the PRC. Granted, that's a very small risk, but it is something that the US could hang over their heads to get them to back down.
 

James G

Gone Fishin'
According to Wiki:

On May 7, 1999, during the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia (Operation Allied Force), five US JDAM guided bombs hit the People's Republic of China embassy in the Belgrade district of New Belgrade, killing three Chinese reporters and outraging the Chinese public.

In OTL, China stridently condemned it and angry mobs besieged several US diplomatic installations, but Clinton apologized and the US paid a hefty settlement to China by year-end. What if the Chinese government had instead decided to fan the flames of nationalism? Could the government have gotten away with expelling all US diplomats, suspending relations with the US, or even going full North Korea and ordering all US businesses to close without risking a coup?
The angry mobs were government staged managed protesters: that was China only ten years after tianmen. As to how they responded, they ramped up naval and air activity off their coast against US military deployments culminating in the 2001 incident with the US Navy EP-3.
 
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