alternatehistory.com

Per Turtledove "Hitler's War" let's assume the 1938 war scenario. Only try to do it in realistic way.

First of all we would have to ensure that military doesn't coup Hitler. They have to be somewhat convinced that war will not be a disaster. This could be done by strong evidence of wide uprising in Sudetenland by German militia and in Slovakia by Slovaks.
Another point required would be the willingness of Stalin to invade. In OTL he wanted capitalists to fight among each other before communists would take over. He has to be convinced that this won't happen. To do that we would require Britain and France doing nothing aggressive in Czechoslovak war. This isn't difficult, they didn't do much during invasion of Poland, and if Nazis show the conflict as internal in beginning, then France and Britain would restrain themselves from declaring war.
Seeing Germany weakened a bit from the fighting, Soviets could take risk to neutralise Poland and opt for takeover of its Eastern territory.
Such an invasion would spark defensive treaty from Romania and push Poles into alliance with Germany which Hitler still pursued in 1938. Slovaks and Hungarians would also be part of this alliance together with Italy.
While Germany doesn't have the resources of Soviet Union it had in OTL, it probably has access to western markets for a year or so before France and Britain decide to be more active in countering the threat. Also access to Romanian oil is granted, and Italy if it plays cards right would serve as intermediary for buying western resources.
While German army is not in top condition, Red Army is weakened by purges and invasion of Poland would be difficult due to better defences in the Polish east, riddled with swamps, thick forests and marshlands, as well as keeping eye on Romanian border. I would expect the Poles and Romanians to initially repel the Soviet offensive to a more stable front line that would serve as point of restarted hostilities in spring of 1939.

So what do you think about next possible events taking place ?
I would say that Germans despite the war in the East, would still decide to eliminate France with a quick and decisive attack in 1940 or 1941 and would likely succeed. It would also be interesting if Spain joins the anti-bolshevik coalition if there would be no war with Britain and France initially.
Top