Realistic losses if Prussia loses Austro-Prussian war decisively

Austria would probably content itself with the return of Silesia. Saxony would get the territory lost following the Napoleonic Wars. I don't see much in the way of any other losses of Prussian territory. For Austria it would be enough to re-establish its supremacy in the German Confederation. Prussia faced up to her in 1850 and had to back down with the threat of war. To actually lose a war sixteen years later would be a huge blow to Prussian prestige, damage limitation would be the order of the day. If, as has been suggested, the Austrians were to transfer the Habsburg rulers from the Italian States to Western Germany then it would be Austria's responsibility to protect the Confederation from an ambitious France. I think that that is a responsibility that they declined after the Napoleonic Wars. Austria needed to lead the German Confederation but, following her losses in Italy, her eyes were set firmly on the Balkans.
 
Austria would probably content itself with the return of Silesia. Saxony would get the territory lost following the Napoleonic Wars. I don't see much in the way of any other losses of Prussian territory. For Austria it would be enough to re-establish its supremacy in the German Confederation. Prussia faced up to her in 1850 and had to back down with the threat of war. To actually lose a war sixteen years later would be a huge blow to Prussian prestige, damage limitation would be the order of the day. If, as has been suggested, the Austrians were to transfer the Habsburg rulers from the Italian States to Western Germany then it would be Austria's responsibility to protect the Confederation from an ambitious France. I think that that is a responsibility that they declined after the Napoleonic Wars. Austria needed to lead the German Confederation but, following her losses in Italy, her eyes were set firmly on the Balkans.

On the other hand, this situation may lead to the most unified Austrian-lead Germany in centuries - after all, Bavaria, Saxony, and the Habsburg Rhineland/Westphalia (so long as it’s still heavily industrializing) are now solidly in Vienna’s pocket and they remain functionally unopposed within Germany. Gathering up Confederation forces will be comparable to Prussia’s effort to do so in 1870, so an ATL Austro-French war strengthens Vienna’s hand further, I would think.
 
A war against France would only strengthen Vienna's hand further if they were able to win it. Austria's problem with this would be that they would almost certainly have to fight a two-front war (as in 1866). Italy would no doubt try to conquer the remaining Austrian possessions south of the Alps possibly in a formal alliance with France. But of course we then go back to the question "What reason would they have to seek a war with France?" ideas anyone? Or is this likely to be another thread?
 
Hmm. Perhaps an Austrian annexation of more of Silesia, a restoration of Saxony to its old frontiers, and something on the Rhineland? A Bavarian Rhineland, perhaps, expanding on the Palatinate?

One interesting question might be what neighbouring Great Powers will accept, or be given, to ratify a crushing defeat. This may well be how France gets Luxembourg, at least, if not the Saar, or how Russia gets more Polish provinces from Prussia.
 
Hmm. Perhaps an Austrian annexation of more of Silesia, a restoration of Saxony to its old frontiers, and something on the Rhineland? A Bavarian Rhineland, perhaps, expanding on the Palatinate?

One interesting question might be what neighbouring Great Powers will accept, or be given, to ratify a crushing defeat. This may well be how France gets Luxembourg, at least, if not the Saar, or how Russia gets more Polish provinces from Prussia.


Afaik the Tsar had no desire to acquire more Polish subjects. He reportedly told Empress Eugenie that the division of Poland was a trois and should remain so.

Napoleon III's big obsession was Italy. He wanted the Austrians to give up Venetia and any aspirations to recover Lombardy or restore the deposed Grand Dukes. However he was ok with any changes which "did not threaten the European balance of power" which probably meant letting the Habsburgs acquire German territories of similar extent to their lost lands in Italy. He certainly wanted the Prussians out of the Rhineland, and favoured strengthening the "middling" states like Bavaria. Giving about half the Rhenish Provinces to the GDs, and sharing the rest between the smaller German Kingdoms, with Silesia making up for the loss of Lombardy-Venetia, sounds as likely as anything. I'm not sure if Luxemburg had come up yet.
 
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