Realistic losses if Prussia loses Austro-Prussian war decisively

[Urcea]

As it suggests on the tin, I'm wondering what Prussia will end up losing in the event that Austria and her German allies decisively defeat Prussia and her allies in a conflict basically the same as the OTL one. The PoD doesn't matter - the war takes place at the same time with the same participants, more or less. Maybe Prussia doesn't reform its armies in the early 1860s and Austria does, again, not super relevant.

There's a lot of stuff about the Austrians getting hot and bothered about getting Silesia back. I would presume Saxony would attempt to reclaim its lost post-Vienna territories. What else would be taken from it? I'm assuming Schleswig-Holstein and Saxe-Lauenburg are taken from it. Anything else? Can the Prussian Rhine be separated from it? Any Hanoverian gains? How far could the Austrian allies go?

 

[Monter]

IIRC basic Austrian ambitions were Silesia and the disputed Duchies, with the Provinces of Rhineland and Westphalia to given as compesation for the Italian Habsburgs that lost their thrones in 1859.

 

[Gwachiko]

Silesia is a must as it was originally Austrian. I doubt Austria would be allowed to take Rhineland though.

 

[Urcea]

Silesia is a must as it was originally Austrian. I doubt Austria would be allowed to take Rhineland though.

well, sure - the war was not one of conquest for Austria, but to ensure its dominance over and the security of the German Confederation. I would guess it would become new principality or so - @Monter seems to believe two

 

[DocJamore]

From the Austrian viewpoint Prussia should be very harshly treated because they went to war with the entire German Confederation, not just Austria, and Austria would view the Confederation as the only legitimate German government.

 

[Janprimus]

IIRC basic Austrian ambitions were Silesia and the disputed Duchies, with the Provinces of Rhineland and Westphalia to given as compesation for the Italian Habsburgs that lost their thrones in 1859.

Would Schleswig-Holstein be governed by the German Confederation, or would it eventually become a principality (duchy/Grand duchy) for the house of Schleswig-Holstein-Sonderburg-Augustenburg (the branch that did not obtain the throne of Denmark).

 

[GauchoBadger]

Silesia is a must as it was originally Austrian. I doubt Austria would be allowed to take Rhineland though.

I could see Austria giving the Westphalia province to some noble (maybe the Duke of Lippe?), at most, but the Rhineland province is likely to remain within Prussia.

 

[Alex Zetsu]

I seriously doubt the Austrians would get a decisive win over the Prussians. After the War of Austrian Succession, their military was on a down spiral. In OTL, they even had some better (British made) artillery than the Prussians, but were unable to put it to good use. Their best bet is to gain a temporary advantage and convince the Prussian Monarchy the Austrians were stronger than they were, or that war is expensive. But even if they somehow made huge gains, I think they'd be satisfied with retaking Silesia and Westphalia. Ok, technically the Prussians went against the entire German Confederation, but at that time it would take most of the others like Bavaria three years to fully come to potential due to them having small armies relative to population and it taking time to equip, train, and organize (oh, except Prussia a lot of these German states had a skeleton civilian administration too)

 

[Urcea]

I seriously doubt the Austrians would get a decisive win over the Prussians. After the War of Austrian Succession, their military was on a down spiral. In OTL, they even had some better (British made) artillery than the Prussians, but were unable to put it to good use. Their best bet is to gain a temporary advantage and convince the Prussian Monarchy the Austrians were stronger than they were, or that war is expensive. But even if they somehow made huge gains, I think they'd be satisfied with retaking Silesia and Westphalia. Ok, technically the Prussians went against the entire German Confederation, but at that time it would take most of the others like Bavaria three years to fully come to potential due to them having small armies relative to population and it taking time to equip, train, and organize (oh, except Prussia a lot of these German states had a skeleton civilian administration too)

It was certainly possible. Lots of people expected Prussia to lose. You don't need a POD super far back - maybe Maximilian becomes Emperor in 1848 (a bit of a tired trope, I know) and picks better Generals, maybe Prussian army slips into malaise while Austria reforms in the early 1860s, etc. - to make it happen. I don't really care particularly about the POD - I'm just trying to get an idea of what they want after the Confederation army marches into Berlin

 

[BigDestiny]

I seriously doubt the Austrians would get a decisive win over the Prussians. After the War of Austrian Succession, their military was on a down spiral.

This gives Austria a lot of motivation to eliminate Prussia as a rival. Of course, Britain and France won't want an overpowered Austria, so they won't likely get more than Silesia. If they can get a decisive victory (I'm personally imagining a Sedan situation where king and army are captured, and the government falls), Austria is going to be able to reduce Prussia to it's pre-Austrian Succession self with the mother of all fire sales.

 

[Urcea]

This gives Austria a lot of motivation to eliminate Prussia as a rival. Of course, Britain and France won't want an overpowered Austria, so they won't likely get more than Silesia. If they can get a decisive victory (I'm personally imagining a Sedan situation where king and army are captured, and the government falls), Austria is going to be able to reduce Prussia to it's pre-Austrian Succession self with the mother of all fire sales.

I'm not really sure an ATL Seven Years War-like truncation is possible, partly because a lot of the German countries that might get territory were the ones fighting alongside Prussia, such as Mecklenburg. They can't really do anything with Royal Prussia, Swedish Pomerania, etc. by this time period

 

[BigDestiny]

I'm not really sure an ATL Seven Years War-like truncation is possible, partly because a lot of the German countries that might get territory were the ones fighting alongside Prussia, such as Mecklenburg. They can't really do anything with Royal Prussia, Swedish Pomerania, etc. by this time period

You're definitely right about Prussia's Polish territories. But I think Austria had enough allies to divide northern Germany without any of them ending up too powerful. Some of them might even end up visible on a map, lol.

The best part about this is it's a trial by peer so Austria gets to destroy Prussia without looking like the aggressor to the other Great Powers.

 

[Urcea]

The best part about this is it's a trial by peer so Austria gets to destroy Prussia without looking like the aggressor to the other Grest Powers.

true. there's an argument to be made that Prussia, by waging war on the German Confederation, was purposefully trying to upend the Vienna system. France would back them on that argument, and I highly doubt Britain would object

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

I seriously doubt the Austrians would get a decisive win over the Prussians. After the War of Austrian Succession, their military was on a down spiral.

What?

 

[Urcea]

What?

Yeah the Austrian decline trope is somewhat prevalent sadly - never mind the fact that they probably fielded the best army they ever had during the Napoleonic war and were considered a great power by basically everybody

 

[Neptune]

Just have von Moltke die so he doesn't design that "quick war, quick victory" thing.

 

[Alex Zetsu]

Yeah the Austrian decline trope is somewhat prevalent sadly - never mind the fact that they probably fielded the best army they ever had during the Napoleonic war and were considered a great power by basically everybody

it's not just the war of Austrian Succession (where they lost to a smaller better led army). The Austrian losses in the War of the Third Coalition had a much higher casualty to soldiers fielded ratio than its allies (I'm measuring Army effectiveness in terms of casualties than wins against Napoleon, since even the Russians didn't beat him head on at his peak either). Then in 1915, there were as many as 30,000 Polish speaking contingents which deserted from formations that were still in communication with Austrian lines (as in, not hopelessly surrounded). My point being, the Thesisian reforms of the 18th century and the acquisition of the best military equipment the world had to offer in the 19th century were steps in the right direction, but it seems they never really got as powerful at France. Contrast this to anytime in the 1500s to the mid 1700s when Hapsburg continental power (as in excluding the powerful in its own right Spain) was every right its equal to France and in most cases seem spiffier.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Contrast this to anytime in the 1500s to the mid 1700s when Hapsburg continental power (as in excluding the powerful in its own right Spain) was every right its equal to France and in most cases seem spiffier.

Yes, lets.

it's not just the war of Austrian Succession (where they lost to a smaller better led army).

This was the same time period where France repeatedly lost land battles against the UK, and let's not pretend that France didn't lose its share of battles against the Prussians. Also the Austrians beat the French numerous times durring the war.

The Austrian losses in the War of the Third Coalition had a much higher casualty to soldiers fielded ratio than its allies (I'm measuring Army effectiveness in terms of casualties than wins against Napoleon, since even the Russians didn't beat him head on at his peak either).

Largely due to a single campaign. Austria produced more generals capable of besting Napoleon than any other country.

Then in 1915, there were as many as 30,000 Polish speaking contingents which deserted from formations that were still in communication with Austrian lines (as in, not hopelessly surrounded).

Then in 1917 54 French divisions threaten to mutiny should they be ordered to take the offensive. Compare to Austria's military actually fighting on after the empire had collapsed and ending the war with its lands unoccupied.

 

[Tibi088]

The Rheinland and Westfalen question is tricky. Austria doesnt go uniting Germany like Prussia did that seems sure. And in that case by taking this provinces Austria would remove any possible point of contention between Prussia and France. Though allying with France would make Prussia very unpopular among the german nationalists.

Also another point would be the reaction of France. I totally see Napoleon III asking for some form of compensation.

 

[Mikestone8]

The Rheinland and Westfalen question is tricky. Austria doesnt go uniting Germany like Prussia did that seems sure. And in that case by taking this provinces Austria would remove any possible point of contention between Prussia and France. Though allying with France would make Prussia very unpopular among the german nationalists..

Franz Josef had already agreed to give up Venetia, which is what Nappy III seems to have cared most about, and would probably have been willing to let France have Luxemburg if she could get it. If other German princes complained, he could always respond "Well, give me the means to enforce German rights. Send your young men to my army. Don't ask me to do what you deny me the means to do".

As for the Rhenish Provinces, iirc their total population was nearly double that of Tuscany and Modena put together; so there is enough territory to provide new states for the deposed Grand Dukes, while leaving some juicy morsels for Hanover and Bavaria. Saxony, I assume, is restored to its pre-Vienna borders