Realistic Expectations of the Business Plot?

Now we've all heard about the Business Plot at one point or another and if you haven't well here you go, and the main problem with the plot was the choice of Smedley Butler as a leader for their coup. Now Butler was avowedly anti-Fascist and it can be considered that there were much better choices for a leader of the armed forces, like Butlers alleged backup, Douglas MacArthur. But the plot allegedly had some major backers including the DuPonts, General's Hugh Johnson and James Harbord, John W. Davis, Thomas LaMont and Admiral William Sims. Now assuming they could gain a new public face and had launched the coup, which purportedly had an army of 500,000 men, with MacArthur leading the March on Washington in the summer of 1935, what could have been the realistic outcome?

And this is more a thought exercise, not a realistic scenario, so have fun with it.
 
The plot fails. I doubt many of the lower ranking men would obey the order to march on Washington, and the coup would lack any support from the majority of the American people. The butterflies from it even being attempted though would be interesting.
 
It fails handily.

Assuming a high visibility attempt- radio broadcasts, announcement of a new government etc, it's going to be the greatest weapon for the left in decades.

Roosevelt gets a free hand with his agenda- the New Deal's most radical ideas get pushed through, and that includes court-packing. The Republcian party is in disarray because fairly or not the Democrats are going to paint as many of them as possible as enemies of democracy.

FDR may face the problem of radicalised populists within his party- Huey Long et al may gain a lot more influence with the grass roots.



A bad day all round- though the idea of a much stronger American left isn't wholly unpleasant to say the least.
 

Rush Tarquin

Gone Fishin'
I'd now love to see a TL with a failed Business Plot.

Is it 100% concrete there was a plot involving numerous powerful individuals and not just one evidently loopy one aided by some whackos in the American Legion?
 
I'd now love to see a TL with a failed Business Plot.
Agreed.

Is it 100% concrete there was a plot involving numerous powerful individuals and not just one evidently loopy one aided by some whackos in the American Legion?
No, definitely not, but it's a long way from clear that there wasn't. If I had to guess I'd think there were some surprisingly high level vague ideas about it rather than a true plot. Ultimate though it's really not clear what was going on, and a plot makes a better story.

One of the butterflies that would really concern me is the FBI. I'd think that Hoover probably gets to run wild(er) in chasing down anyone implicated, and trying to prevent another. You really could get something of a witch hunt, and it definitely won't be good for the military. I wonder if we might not see the US entering the war significantly weakened, having spent a good decade afraid of it's military. I can't imagine the state of the forces being nearly as bad as the Soviet, but you are very likely going to see a loss of talent and experience somewhat similar to what the purges caused.
 
I wonder if we might not see the US entering the war significantly weakened, having spent a good decade afraid of it's military. I can't imagine the state of the forces being nearly as bad as the Soviet, but you are very likely going to see a loss of talent and experience somewhat similar to what the purges caused.

Depends on how it shakes out, if the plot is foiled due to mid ranking officers and the rank and file soldiers refusing orders and mutinying against the coup that could lead to a more positive image of the military emphasizing common soldiers as the defender of democracy in its most dire hour.

You might also see much more overt and direct efforts to fight fascism abroad. A failed fascist coup at home could easily inspire a fierce desire to seek out and destroy fascism abroad. It's hard to dismiss the rising fascist tide in Europe as, "someone else's problem" when American fascists try to make that happen.
 
Depends on how it shakes out, if the plot is foiled due to mid ranking officers and the rank and file soldiers refusing orders and mutinying against the coup that could lead to a more positive image of the military emphasizing common soldiers as the defender of democracy in its most dire hour.

You might also see much more overt and direct efforts to fight fascism abroad. A failed fascist coup at home could easily inspire a fierce desire to seek out and destroy fascism abroad. It's hard to dismiss the rising fascist tide in Europe as, "someone else's problem" when American fascists try to make that happen.

I agree with the above. By 1939 politicians were more interested in opposing communism than fascism. Concrete evidence of the Business Plot would lead to a much stronger anti-fascist stance into the '40s, possibly declaring support for the Republicans in the Spanish Civil War.

Another tack would be a 'quiet coup'. Smedley Butler said that one of the plotters said FDR would be kept in as a figurehead, while a new position of Secretary of General Affairs would actually wield power. In this scenario, MacArthur's army would be used as a blackmail lever to force the federal government to capitulate to the plotters.
 
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