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Let's say that the Spanish-American War either didn't happen, or it was limited to fighting in the Caribbean. It's only a matter of time before the Filipinoes drive the Spanish out of the islands.

So what is the most realistic outcome? Do Japan, Germany, or some other power swoop in and capture the islands, or are they left alone? Or perhaps a major power takes some kind of paternal relationship with them without military occupation?

For the sake of argument let's say they drive the Spanish out sometime in 1900.
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