Realistic Consequences of an Independent Philippines

Let's say that the Spanish-American War either didn't happen, or it was limited to fighting in the Caribbean. It's only a matter of time before the Filipinoes drive the Spanish out of the islands.

So what is the most realistic outcome? Do Japan, Germany, or some other power swoop in and capture the islands, or are they left alone? Or perhaps a major power takes some kind of paternal relationship with them without military occupation?

For the sake of argument let's say they drive the Spanish out sometime in 1900.
 
you have to remember Philippines isn't one island. Luzon has the capability to drive Spanish out and keep the Spanish out even with the presence of the Spanish navy. Can't say the same for Mindanao, Guam, Caroline islands, Marianas.

Visayas collectively can drive the Spanish out. However the problem with visayas is they are multiple small islands not unlike Luzon being one big island like Japan's Honshu. This means the Spanish can blockade them and take one island after another without the other small islands capable to reinforce the island being invaded.

There are two scenarios I see:
1) Spain keeping the remaining islands (visayas collectively richer than Cuba)
2) sell the remaining islands to Germany.

Now for Luzon, the relationship would be still be primarily with the British. there was a lot of British business before the Americans took over and monopolized their colony by 1902 otl. Second will be with Germany. A lot of Germanophile will still be present in the leadership even if you just talk about Luzon.

Japan won't be intersted by 1900. They had their chance in 1896 to help the rebels.
 
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