Realistic Anglo-German Agreement

abc123

Banned
Note however that naval construction isn't the core inhibition to a deal. The fundamental sticking point was that Britain had no particular incentive to deal with Germany. It could outpace Germany in construction (so who cares what Germany does), and London percieved that any arrangement was giving Germany "something" for "nothing".

I understand that, Germany has to offer something far more tangible to Britain...
 
On the German side, you have to get rid of the Kaiser.


Not necessarily - The battlefleet was not Wilhelms "first" choice - initially he was more leaning to build a Cruiser fleet (i.e. a "colonial" fleet) only after Tirpitz was made secratary in the Reichsmarineamt and formulating the "Tirpitz Plan" the change of mind : to build a battlefleet was made.
 
Tirpitz was 'johnny come lately' to the idea of a large battlefleet. For years he was the proponent of torpedo boats, but that wasn't what the rest of the German naval officers corps believed in. A large battlefleet was also supported by German heavy industry and the German middle class, especially those from the cities. Tirpitz is more the lense thru which all the ideas of these separate parties parties were focused.

True on the Torpedo boat : but when he was Secretary in the reichsmarineame he was proponent of Battleships - and thats the time that counts. (Torpedo boats were considered for some time, but later dismissed by all navy ans secondary weapons)

The economic argument holds some merit too, but if you build a few cruisers for each battleship its break even for the industry.

And the support for bbs was cerated by Tirpit own public relations.

In addition if you take away the BB "lens" and have a Cruiser "lens" instead the outcome is different.

A BB fleet was not inevitable - even Wilhelm was not a BB man initially.

THe OP (IIRC) also said a slight more sane Wilhelm is necessary, so itspossible.

With the focus on Cruisers an agreement with Britain on BBs should be possible.
 

Tyr Anazasi

Banned
I don't know, if the cruiser fleet would not have alianated Britain as much. Because these cruisers could have caused much troubles abroad. Look only the few German cruisers could shut down entire oceans for British shipping...

BTW, in OTL the British did realize this danger also in 1935 and then made the fleet agreement with Germany...
 
But Britain can not realistically demand that Germany does NOT protect its overseas interests. In addition the Battlefleet was a threat to the core of the empire, while a cruiser fleet is far from threatening Britain proper. Sure its nothing Britain would welcome, but its something Britain could live with.
 
Apparently, the 1898 offer was a general defensive alliance, with some specific cooperation proposed to combat growing Russian power in China.

Was Chamberlain's offer sincere, or was he looking to create fear in St. Petersburg, and bring off an agreement there using the threat of negotiations with Germany?
Dearest Willy,
. . . Three months ago, in the midst of our negotiations with China, England handed us over a memorandum containing many tempting proposals trying to induce us to come to a full agreement upon all the points in which our interest collided with her’s. These proposals were of such a new character, that I must say, we were quite amazed and yet their very nature seemed suspicious to us; never before had England made such offers to Russia. That showed us clearly that England needed our friendship at that time, to be able to check our development, in a masked way, in the Far East. Without thinking twice over it, their proposals were refused. ...
It is very difficult for me, if not quite impossible, to answer your question whether it is useful or not for Germany to accept these often repeated English proposals, as I have not got the slightest knowledge of their value.
You must of course decide what is best and most necessary for your country.
Germany and Russia have lived in peace since old times, as good neighbours, and God grant! that they may continue so, in close and loyal friendship. . . .
I thank you once more for writing to me at such a grave moment for you!
God bless you my dearest Willy.
Believe me ever your loving cousin and trusting friend,
Nicky.


The old saying is that if it looks too good to be true, it probably is.
 

abc123

Banned
Apparently, the 1898 offer was a general defensive alliance, with some specific cooperation proposed to combat growing Russian power in China.

Intresting. According to this paper, it seems that the main stumbling block was will Germany guarantee British Empire ( British colonies and dominions ) or just UK?

The other important thing is- since British colonies can be threatned by: Russia ( Middle East and India ), Japan ( Far East ), USA ( Americas ) and France ( Africa and SE Asia ) and considering that the only real threat ( the one that UK can't handle alone ) were Russia and USA ( especially for Canada )- the question is- what was the attitude of British government towards the United States at the time? Was UK intent to have "peace at any cost" with US or the possibility for war existed?
 
....USA ( especially for Canada )- the question is- what was the attitude of British government towards the United States at the time? Was UK intent to have "peace at any cost" with US or the possibility for war existed?

From all the academic texts I've read the British never applied the 'Two Power Standard' to the United States. The vulnerability of Canada certainly played a part, but for the most part the US wasn't much of a threat and it was believed that an understanding could always be reached between London and Washington. The main rivals for the British Empire are strictly in Europe.
 
But Britain can not realistically demand that Germany does NOT protect its overseas interests. In addition the Battlefleet was a threat to the core of the empire, while a cruiser fleet is far from threatening Britain proper. Sure its nothing Britain would welcome, but its something Britain could live with.

The arguement of protecting Germany's overseas interests, is valid, but ignores the fact that Germany needed a battlefleet to prevent the blockade of its home ports. In the wars against Denmark and France German merchant ships were swept from the seas and its ports blockaded. What they found maddening was that the French were still able to import arms and munitions. By the early 20th century Germany, with its growing industrial base and population, is dependent upon grain and material imports.
 

abc123

Banned
From all the academic texts I've read the British never applied the 'Two Power Standard' to the United States. The vulnerability of Canada certainly played a part, but for the most part the US wasn't much of a threat and it was believed that an understanding could always be reached between London and Washington. The main rivals for the British Empire are strictly in Europe.

OK, so then, what can Germany offer to Britain?
A field army for defence of India from Russians ( or atack on Russia from the west if they attack India/Persia )?
 
OK, so then, what can Germany offer to Britain?
A field army for defence of India from Russians ( or atack on Russia from the west if they attack India/Persia )?

Britain was a completely satiated Power with strong global trade and finiances and no colonial issues. There seems, literally, nothing Germany could offer to tempt Britain. Hence, the reasoning behind the High Seas Fleet; Germany needed a relationship with Britain and there was no carrot to be had. It's easy after the fact to see what the situation required - for Britain to ditch the Russian entente and cooperate to the isolation of Russia, while at the same time the United States would gradually be drawn into Europe in alliance with Britain and Germany. But getting there without a world war?
 
OK, so then, what can Germany offer to Britain?
A field army for defence of India from Russians ( or atack on Russia from the west if they attack India/Persia )?

A promise that if the Russians try and attack India and Persia then Germany will either go to war or at the very least make some very threatening noises forcing Russia to keep the bulk of it's forces in Europe.
 
OK, so then, what can Germany offer to Britain?
A field army for defence of India from Russians ( or atack on Russia from the west if they attack India/Persia )?

Nothing. Any colonial or territorial problems are mostly with Russia and France, since they border more territory than the Germans do. An alliance with Germany would just be a count down clock to war given the alliance system.
 
A promise that if the Russians try and attack India and Persia then Germany will either go to war or at the very least make some very threatening noises forcing Russia to keep the bulk of it's forces in Europe.

Sealion in Seedoos is a walk in the park compared to a Russian attack on India. Britain just didn't need German protection from a Russian infantry attack maybe 1,500 miles from the nearest rail head.
 
Nothing. Any colonial or territorial problems are mostly with Russia and France, since they border more territory than the Germans do. An alliance with Germany would just be a count down clock to war given the alliance system.

No, the formula for war was with Russia. The formula for peace was the isolation of Russia. Britain and Germany didn't have enough trust to pull it off by themselves; they needed to bring the USA into European affairs.
 

Tyr Anazasi

Banned
We must perhaps see the global situation of both countries.

Fleet: Germany needed a fleet to protect herself from being blockaded by France and Russia at the same time thus having a fleet greater than theirs. That was the reason behind the fleet. And until 1906 nobody really had problems with this, also not in Britain. The British fleet was just too far away in the race. Then the HMS Dreadnought was built and the race started at a new point. Well, if there was a race one could argue. Germany never built more ships than the British and also never intended to do so. Infact their plan was the so called Risikoflotte. A fleet strong enough to be a risk for Britain to go for war. Many condamn this as alianating Britain. But IMO it was the only chance. Why? See below!

The family: We all know there can be no more troubles than in families and the greater the families the greater the chances. Victoria was more a German than a British and so it was no wonder that under her there were no real thoughts to become hostile towards Germany. Especially as Willy was her darling! And here we have a problem. Edward. Despite being de facto a German as well, he hated every German and was indeed married with a Danish princess, who hated Germany, too, for 1864. And Willy had beaten him in a prestigious regatta! Shocking! So both countries became more and more hostile also because of this family dispute.

The economy: The Germans had already caught the British in terms of industrial output. The Germans were a geopolitical player with an own agenda and own interests. They were a competitor.

The power: The Germans were the strongest nation in Europe. And until only recently the British opposed such a power with all means. If the Spanish are the greatest threat? Going with the Dutch. The French? The Germans and Russians! The Russians? The French and Italians. The French again? The Germans. The Germans? The French. IIRC there is a cool British scatch about that.

The colonies: Germany had an eye on the Belgian and Portuguese colonies. But the British on the few Germans. German East Africa was stopping a Cairo to Cape railroad. And German New Guinea was a threat to Australia.


For every point there was a solution possible. A fleet treaty. Possible, even the ratios were agreed to. A new king. Yes, George Vth. Power? Possible compromises like the Berlin-Baghdad railway (why the heck does the British have problems when the Ottomans want to build a railway?). Portuguese colonies? ALso possible.

Anyway, there were too many problems between both countries. Both had to clash. As long as Germany was not needed as a counter balance it was a danger. And this need was not there. The British won in two wars thanks to the USA. But they lost their Empire and the US won theirs (okay, this is a bit crude for a comparison, but the USA are a superpower, Britain not).

As long as the British did not realize how ruinous a war with Germany were, so long they won't make a deal with Germany. Perhaps they realized that in 1913/14, which is not sure. But then it was too late for changes.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Yes, I presume that something like "police of the sea- police of the continent" agreement is made.

But what about naval agreement?

Can we say that say 35% of RN strength in battleships, 40% of RN strength in heavy/armoured cruisers and 45% of RN strength in light/protected cruisers would be satisfactory for both countries?

Germany can have their KM pretty much as strong as Russian Fleet while RN will protect them in case of conflict with France and keep the sealines open. Also, Germany has enough cruisers for colonial duties.

Destroyers and such smaller ships would not be regulated- so Germany can build as much as she wants such ships for defence from Russia in Baltic.

Sounds agreeable?

Depends on the year and the POD. By the end of the time period, the Germans wanted about 60%, and the UK wanted 50%, so anywhere in between is workable. Now German was well under 50% on total tonnage and smaller ship tonnage, so we might see a larger German navy as a part of a deal. UK Admirals publicly called for Germany to build more smaller ships. There was also an issue of how the fleet was deployed. The main German base in the North Sea made the UK nervous. Spreading smaller ships around the world would help.

So what does the agreement look like. Probably 2-3 fewer German dreads build (including BC). The extra money is spent on either the army or smaller ships. The internal German politics will get complicated, and i am skipping those but to summarize, we need a new Naval Bill to implement the treaty. If we go with the navy building smaller ships, we have to decide what doctrine the German Navy adopts. And where it is going to put the ships. To be fair, if the Germans just builds 2-3 less capital ships and 5-10 more cruisers, it is in fine shape for any war with France and Russia (as far as it can be, France is still on its supply lanes). We could also go with more torpedo boats, more U-boats, more newer wonderweapons (Zeppelins, airplanes, mines, rockets, etc).

And a lot depends on what the UK guarantees. If the UK guarantees absolutely unrestricted shipments to Belgium and the Netherlands in a war, the Germans don't really need much. We can argue for extra colonial forces, but if you take Paris, you get all your colonies back anyway plus some bonus lands. If the treaty is just pure UK neutrality in exchange for reaffirming by Germany of Belgium neutral status, the Germans likely will need more smaller ship and may want colonial naval forces.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
I don't know, if the cruiser fleet would not have alianated Britain as much. Because these cruisers could have caused much troubles abroad. Look only the few German cruisers could shut down entire oceans for British shipping...

BTW, in OTL the British did realize this danger also in 1935 and then made the fleet agreement with Germany...

Well, it would not have. The UK Admirals believed in first class Navies (the RN) and Second class navies. First class navies dominated in capital ships, and second class navies built smaller ships. Sure we know the cruisers would have cause huge issues. And we know overseas bases would cause huge issues. And U-boats would cause huge issues, but the RN of the time did not see the huge issues. It is also important to remember that even a very large Germany cruiser fleet will still be smaller than the British fleet. So what they were really saying is the RN prefers Germany to have 50% of the capital fleet and 60% of the cruiser fleet size of the RN to Germany having 60% of the capital fleet and 35% (number from memory) of the cruiser fleet of the UK. Also, the RN network of ports is vastly better than any system Germany is likely to be able to setup in any TL pre WW1.
 
Top