Realism of a Permanently Divided Germany?

Outside of a continuing Cold War I can't see Germany remaining divided.

Perhaps some sort of phased in joining where East Germany remains separate until its economy reaches a certain level.

AFAIK, this was considered the obvious outcome of the Berlin Wall coming down, and what happened IOTL was seen as ASB. By a lot of people, anyway.
 
To be honest, the wall and border was fortified to prevent millions voting with their feet. What makes you think after 30 more years of real socialism they wouldn't continue?
even before the opening of the wall, tens of thousands tried to leave the GDR via Prag and Hungary, the embassies there were overrun by eastern germans trying to jump ship, and after hungary opened its border, it became a flood.
Unless the GDR was able to achieve a standard of living and freedom similar to the FDR, the flight of young and educated people would have continued unabated, or unless they build a border around the inner warsaw packs borders as well.
 
If the softening had been done while the border was still mostly closed, it would have lasted some more years. And if the border opens, a little earlier than OTL, but perhaps still in 89 or 88, we might see an even earlier re-unification, or none at all.

People in the DDR wanted the living standards of the people of the BRD.
Re-unification was seen as the fastest way to raise them to BRD level.
Unless the BRD opposes re-unification (and migration), re-unification happens one way or another.
 
Make communism work.

A prosperous DDR that secured freedoms to its populace would still want reunification with the West, but under a socialist regime. For as long as West Germany doesn't want that, then reunification will not happen, not without force. Of course, a population with a genuine affection for communism is not going to happen in the '40s, or even the '50s, so the Soviets will have to initially perform the careful balancing act of ensuring prosperity and keeping the Germans in line.
 
Stalin does to Eastern Germany what he did to the Baltic states of altering the demographics by moving East Germans to Siberia and ethnic Russians into East Germany.

He turns ethnic Germans into the underclass in East Germany that don't know how to rule the state.
 
It might have been possible if Andropov had lived another decade. He was the only one with a blend of economic reform but potent state security apparatus to make this happen. The USSR gives up Eastern Europe on the condition Germany remains separated and no NATO expansion. USSR has to remain strong enough to force the agreement but flexible enough to allow this to happen. Andropov is probably the only one that could do this.
 
Either make Communism work, or increase Nazi persecution of Catholics so that Bavaria/the Rhineland don't want more non-Catholics in West Germany.

teg
 
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