Reagan's head start

WI Ronald Reagan had been nominated as the Republican candidate for US president in 1976 and won the election? (And on a related note, could he win it, or was he still seen as too far to the right?)
 
1) I think it's fairly unlikely he could win, since, yeah, he was seen as basically a right-wing nut.

2) If he did, it'd be interesting - would the economy get him kicked out in 1980, avoiding the 'Reagan Revolution' altogether? It's an interesting idea, alright.
 
Reagan could easily be nominated: just avoid announcing the choice of Schweiker until the balloting is completed. Reagan could win against Carter- because Reagan would carry most of Dixie, unlike Ford.

genusmap.php


(R) Ronald W. Reagan/Richard S. Schweiker: 310 EV, 52.7%
(D) James E. Carter/ Walter F. Mondale: 228 EV, 45.3%

Incumbent President: Gerald Ford (R)
President-elect: Ronald Reagan (R)

genusmap.php


(D) Edward M. Kennedy/Ernest F. Hollings: 273 EV, 49.1%
(R) Ronald W. Reagan/Richard S. Schweiker: 265 EV, 50.5%

Incumbent President: Ronald Reagan (R)
President-elect: Ted Kennedy (D)

 
Re CA: Whoever has the better GOTV operation, that's who. ;) In 1968, Reagan was so heavily favoured in CA that Nixon, his fellow Californian, didn't even file in the Republican primary. Reagan would carry suburban and rural California and some of the blue-collar wards. Brown gets the cities. I'd say Reagan by under 200,000 votes in the general.
 
In all likelihood, Reagan would be decimated in 1980, and probably drag the Conservative movement down with him. The economy was going to be crap in 1976 to 1980 regardless, unless you can give Nixon his last few years in office to work some kind of magic or something.

But, there may be a chance of Reagan being reelected, albeit by a string. This would involve his charisma, honing the "Nixon Coalition", using his star-spangled tinted glasses to try to avoid malaise, and -were there an Iran Hostage Crisis- to handle the crisis with equally star-spangled glasses. And perhaps some dirty Nixon tricks in the background (like causing a Democratic civil war by helping a black candidate in the Democratic party through secret funding and support, as Nixon had plans to do on his part). And if he gets reelected -being probably unpopular overall and with the economy sinking-, a period of messy and uneven politics that was the 1960's-1970's get even messier and more uneven with the inclusion of the early 1980's. But I think that adds some character to history, myself.;)

But the simplest answer is reelection is probably not assured, and probably unlikely.
 
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Your Majesty, the Dems still don't have a Dixie-friendly candidate. If they can't carry at least 2-3 Southern states by picking a Southern running-mate, Reagan wins due to the vagaries of the electoral map. There are no Southern presidential candidates with a large following in the North in 1980.
 
Your Majesty, the Dems still don't have a Dixie-friendly candidate. If they can't carry at least 2-3 Southern states by picking a Southern running-mate, Reagan wins due to the vagaries of the electoral map. There are no Southern presidential candidates with a large following in the North in 1980.
I don't think the Democrats losing the South is a death blow, although it would help Reagan in the election. If Reagan goes down in flames as Carter did, the Democrats can lose the South and still probably get a majority of outside votes. Keep in mind, you'd have had a Republican controlled WH since 1968, an economy going down the toilet, and a man who would still probably be considered too radical in his politics by a lot of people without the feel good "Morning in America" nostalgia and mythos.

Bentsen is eminently qualified, looks Presidential, and is a moderate SoDem. Outside the South, he still has little name recognition.
It was the same with Carter.
 
Here's another map: all the other states I cannot see going Dem.

genusmap.php


(D) Lloyd M. Bentsen/Birch E. Bayh II: 295 EV, 51.1%
(R) Ronald W. Reagan/ Richard S. Schweiker: 243 EV, 49.6%

Incumbent President: Ronald Reagan (R)
President-elect: Lloyd Bentsen (D)
 
One obvious butterfly is no Bush dynasty. GHWB had lost twice for the Senate and had served a single House term in a safe Houston seat- he wouldn't have ever been elected had he not been Reagan's Veep.
 
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