Reagan wins GOP nomination in 1976-How Well Does He Do?
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theres evidence for both he would do better than ford and that he would do worse
I personally think he would do better, he would carry a couple more southern states, Mississippi and Texas for example, maybe Missouri and florida as well
I think Reagan would win, but it would be a close run thing
I personally think he would do better, he would carry a couple more southern states, Mississippi and Texas for example, maybe Missouri and florida as well
I think Reagan would win, but it would be a close run thing
Remember that Ford beat Reagan in the Florida primary. 52.8-47.2. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_1976 Given that fact, and given that Carter's victory margin over Reagan in that state was fairly large (5.3 percent) I don't see why Reagan would defeat Carter there. (Sure, he blew him away in Florida in 1980. But that can be explained by two words: Mariel boatlift. And in addition, of course, to the hostage crisis and the economy which damaged Carter in Florida as well as the rest of the country, Carter's alienation of the Jewish community on Israel was especially damaging in Florida.) In Missouri, Reagan might have done better than Ford in rural areas, but there were still plenty of moderate Republicans and independents in the St. Louis and Kansas City areas who would prefer Ford. Also, in addition to Carter's 3.63% margin in Missouri, there was 1.23% of the vote that went to Eugene McCarthy--and surely some McCarthy voters would have voted for Carter if the GOP nominated Reagan. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1976
And of course there were plenty of Ford states that Reagan could have lost, as I noted in my prior post.
Reagan's basic problem is that the South in 1976 still considered itself Democratic and was willing to vote for "the right kind" of Democrat (Carter) even against him. Indeed, in southern state after southern state, Carter even came very close to beating Reagan *in 1980* when the conditions for the Republicans were obviously far more favorable.
I'm not sure he was yet the campaigner he would become in 1980.
For example, I'd be interested in what Reagan's stated views on social security were in 1976.
For example, I'd be interested in what Reagan's stated views on social security were in 1976.
From Craig Shirley's book on Reagan's '76 campaign, in leading up to the Florida primary, Ford did challenge Reagan on social security.
Would something like this look reasonable?
Carter 355 EV
Reagan 183 EV
Looks reasonable, though Reagan might take Texas. OTOH, I could see Carter winning Washington and even California, which was very close OTL between Ford and Carter. Sure, it was Reagan's home state, but especially if Reagan were doing fairly poorly nationally, it's plausible it could flip.
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