Reagan orders invasion of Libya by 1989

[Melvin Loh]

OK, given the massive amount of animosity between the US & Qaddafi during the 1980s- as demonstrated by the 1981 Gulf of Sidra incident, the 1986 bombing of Tripoli (Op EL DORADO CANYON), the 1988 Lockerbie airline bombing, & the 1989 Gulf of Sidra incident, is there any way that Pres Reagan- continuing to condemn Qaddafi as 'the mad dog of the Middle East' could've ordered a full-scale invasion of Libya by 1989 ? What effects could such an active US military action against Libya have had, & how well prepared would all the US armed services have been for such an endeavour ?

 

[MacCaulay]

No. There is no way this could have ever happened. Not in a million years. Not unless he did something really apeshit crazy like bomb Egypt or sink some European cruise liner or naval vessel or something.

And I have no clue why he'd do that.

EDIT: Though the Libyan military is fun to look at and wonder about. MiG-23s and MiG-25s are awful neat machines.

 

[SunilTanna]

Egypt and Libya fought a brief mini-war in 1977: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libyan–Egyptian_War

And there were plans for a US-backed Egyptian attack on Libya - http://www.nytimes.com/1987/02/21/world/egypt-us-plan-to-raid-libya-reported.html

But a US invasion of Libya by 1989 - I don't think that's likely unless Libya does something truly batshit insane, and perhaps not even then.

Remember in 1989
1. USSR would have backed Libya
2. USSR had lots of forces in E. Germany, US couldn't not therefore draw on troops in Europe.

The 1990-1991 Desert Shield/Storm was only possible because the situation radically changed by then (substitute Iraq for Libya in pts 1 and 2).

 

[Bill Cameron]

This is borderline ASB.

Reagan didn't even invade Lebanon after the Beirut Barracks Bombing. If killing 299 US servicemen isn't enough to do the trick, Qaddafi is really going to have to pull off a huge attack to spark a US invasion.

So huge as a matter of fact that an US invasion would probably include several allies and have an UN resolution in hand.


Bill

 

[SunilTanna]

This is borderline ASB.

Reagan didn't even invade Lebanon after the Beirut Barracks Bombing. If killing 299 US servicemen isn't enough to do the trick, Qaddafi is really going to have to pull off a huge attack to spark a US invasion.

So huge as a matter of fact that an US invasion would probably include several allies and have an UN resolution in hand.


Bill

Prior to about 1990, the USSR would probably veto any UN resolution about attacking Libya, unless Libya was dumb enough to attack them AND the USA, or something equally crazy.

As for allies, that would be Britain and France, at max.

The French are already pissed off with Libya (Chad)

The Brits for the ride, maybe, although Thatcher also knew how to say no.

No other Europeans without a UN resolution. And unlikely to be any Italians or Germans, no matter what.

 

[Bill Cameron]

Prior to about 1990, the USSR would probably veto any UN resolution about attacking Libya, unless Libya was dumb enough to attack them AND the USA, or something equally crazy.

SunilTanna,

Exactly. For the US and/or allies to invade prior to 1990, the USSR would have to acquiesce. That means Qaddafi and/or his various cut-outs would have had to do something spectacularly stupid.


Bill