Reagan loses in 1984

MrHola

Banned
So, how can Ronald Reagan lose the 1984 elections? This is going to be difficult, since it was an absolute landslide victory for Reagan. First, the Democrats must run someone who is a little more tempting. Let's say Gary Hart wins the nomination and takes Bill Richardson as a Running Mate (suggestions for anyone else, John Glenn maybe?). Second, Reagan was not exactly popular in 1982/1983 because of the economy. Let's say the economy stays crappy because something (suggestions?).

Let's just assume that Hart/Richardson narrowly manage to beat Reagan, how would a Hart Administration envelop? Hart was anti-nuke so I could see full nuclear disarmement in the late 1980s. It almost happened in OTL, but Reagan backed down.
 

burmafrd

Banned
Man, you really have to work at it since the 84 election was the most one sided since Nixon powned McGovern in 72. Frankly outside of Reagan suddenly seeming senile or some other near apocalyptic even it will not happen no matter who the Dems run. Sorry, I was around back then and NO one gave poor old Mondale a chance ever.
 
So, how can Ronald Reagan lose the 1984 elections? This is going to be difficult, since it was an absolute landslide victory for Reagan. First, the Democrats must run someone who is a little more tempting. Let's say Gary Hart wins the nomination and takes Bill Richardson as a Running Mate (suggestions for anyone else, John Glenn maybe?). Second, Reagan was not exactly popular in 1982/1983 because of the economy. Let's say the economy stays crappy because something (suggestions?).

Let's just assume that Hart/Richardson narrowly manage to beat Reagan, how would a Hart Administration envelop? Hart was anti-nuke so I could see full nuclear disarmement in the late 1980s. It almost happened in OTL, but Reagan backed down.



Bill Richardson as veep at age 36? Did/Does he really have that kind of mojo? Perhaps Bill Bradley* is who you're thinking of.

Anyway, google just discovered a quote I remember reading about 1984:
Mondale's speechwriter, Marty Kaplan, when asked who could've beaten the Gipper, replied--"Robert Redford. Maybe Walter Cronkite."

(*Bradley has got to be on Obama's longish shortlist for this fall's ticket. If I hadn't given up wagering on elections I might put a couple of South Pacific Pesos on that.)
 
What about Ronald Reagan dying? That would put him out of the race...

Alternately, is a lapse of courage plausible?
 
Absent Reagan's death, this verges on ASB territory. Walter Mondale was no more than token opposition and he knew it. Since the result was a foregone conclusion, he could take the opportunity to break new ground in naming a woman to the national ticket without getting second-guessed after a loss, although his choice was debatable.

Reagan losing in '84? About as likely as Nixon losing in '72 against McGovern, or Johnson losing to Goldwater in '64. Forget it.
 

maverick

Banned
POD 1: Jesus Christ returns from the dead and takes the Democratic Party nomination, taking zombie FDR as his running mate, and its still a squeaker victory for Reagan...

POD 2: Reagan is not shot in 1981, thus he remains an aggressive and radical figure, picking all sorts of fights abroad and with Congress, culminating in a massive fight between the Democratic Congress (perhaps like the Do-Nothing Congress of 1948) and President Reagan, this coupled with an scandal and the choosing of a Democratic ticket with actual chances of winning more than one state (maybe John Glenn-Gary Hart or Hart-Glenn, or Glenn-Bentsen)...and still Reagan takes 48 states instead of 49...
 

MrHola

Banned
I still think it’s not impossible. Mondale defeated Reagan in the first debate.
Here are my suggestions:

POD 1:
10:08 PM, Friday, Feb. 20th 1981.

For more than an hour, Aerolineas Argentinas Flight 342 from Miami has been circling JFK, waiting permission to land. Heavy fog has cut visibility to less than a half mile, and the overworked air traffic controllers are having a very bad night. It's about to get a lot worse.

The NTSB report blames pilot error; tapes clearly show he was assigned a holding pattern at 2700 feet, but (for unknown reasons) began a descent towards the airport. Equipment failure was a contributing factor; a radar system should have alerted air traffic controllers the plane was below its assigned altitude, but failed to do so [1]. Weather was the final factor; the dense fog prevented the crew from seeing the North Tower of the World Trade Center until a few seconds before impact.

In theory, the tower had been designed to withstand this exact scenario; but the engineers did not consider the inferno that would result from several floors full of flammable office furniture and paper documents being doused in thousands of gallons of flaming jet fuel. Even if the tower had been built with sprinkler systems, the NYFD probably would not have been able to stop such a massive fire; and despite a truly valiant effort, the structure collapses just before dawn.

The South Tower remains standing, but is so badly damaged at this point that it has to be brought down by controlled demolition three months later. Until then, much of Lower Manhattan remains cordoned off.

- - - - -

This is not an good start to Reagan's first year in office. PATCO probably goes on strike in March; this all happened precisely because of issues like faulty equipment and controller overwork that the FAA has been ignoring for years), and public opinion will be mostly on their side. Reagan won't be able to fire them without looking like he's punishing whistleblowers. Mid-level scapegoats in the FAA will be fired instead.

Socially, this probably leads to even worse malaise for New York City and the country as a whole. This isn't something to rally our patriotic spirit like 9/11, it's just a stupid accident that killed 500 innocent people and caused billions of dollars in property and economic loss. There will be a Neil Diamond tribute song.

Thoughts?

[1] In OTL, the minimum-altitude warning system alerted controllers less than a minute before AR342 would've hit the WTC, and they were able to warn the pilot. This system had only been in place for a month or so and had seldom worked.

This would probably prolong or even worsen the recession.

POD 2: Reagan is more seriously injured by the Hinckley shooting. If Reagan can't do his public appearances and the "Great Communicator" thing, he's far more vunerable.

POD 3: Let’s say George Bush admits that the Reagan administration might have to raise some taxes at some point during Reagan's second term. This will contradicts Reagan's "I'll never raise taxes" rhetoric. Let’s say that the democratic opponent (Gary Hart) pounces.

Pod 4: Reagan says something which make people question his ability to do his job; let’s say he shows some signs of Alzheimer in public.

I admit, it’s extremely unlikely, but it’s not as impossible as a Goldwater win in ’64 for example.
 
I still think it’s not impossible. Mondale defeated Reagan in the first debate.


:) I remember a political cartoon about that... it showed a despondant Mondale holding a trophy that read "Debate Winner", while in the background, a horde of people were carrying Reagan on their shoulders and cheering wildly...
 

Jasen777

Donor
If you just want someone else in '84 having Reagan die does seem to be the simplest way to do it. Bush is less popular and could lose given the correct circumstances.
 
it's not as hard as every one thinks it is.


have Iran-Contra start say in '82 have it be a little bigger then OTL. then have it come to light shortly before the first debate.

also it'd help if Reagan was being sued for using "Born in the U.S.A."

the first debate Reagan is "confused" and makes many strange comments, Reagan looks vacant and flat, at times he doesn't answer Questions or answers the wrong ones, forgets Mondale's name calling him "my opponent President Carter"

in the next 3 debates Reagan is more himself but still is "confused" at times

Reagan's confusion gets endless play in the media who play the worst clips of Reagan over and over again. Doctors are brought on TV to talk about it and so on.

during the Vice Presidential Debate Ferraro does some what better then OTL, and wins the debate, but the real story is after the Debate, when Bush says in front of a live microphone (right after the debate and while on the air) "I sure kicked that cunts ass didn't I" this clip gets a lot of play over the next day or so. as did what Barbara Bush had to say about it.
when asked about her husband's remark she said "well you can't blame him for calling her what she is. she's a bitch too"

after this the Bush's poll numbers go into the 30's and stay there

do to the money Reagan and the RNC are spending fighting Springsteen's lawsuit they are unable to launch big TV ads

by election day 64 % of Americans think Reagan is senile 54 % think he knew about Iran-Contra 44 % say they think he was behind it

Bush has a 72% disapproval rating


election day is close but Mondale/Ferraro pull though 286 to 251
 
Well yeah, if you have a bunch of PODs it's easy (Iran-Contra, Born in the USA lawsuit, earlier Alzheimer's, Bush begins using vulgar language in public, accidental conflation between Reagan's money & the parties money).

But none of that is terribly realistic. Reagan's Alzheimer's wasn't a big problem until (perhaps) 1987-88, Bush would never use the word "cunt" especially in public, Iran-Contra was not high on the list in 1982, and the amount of money needed to fight Bruce Springsteen will not reduce the amount of TV ads Reagan, the RNC, and related have on the air.
 
But none of that is terribly realistic. Reagan's Alzheimer's wasn't a big problem until (perhaps) 1987-88, Bush would never use the word "cunt" especially in public, Iran-Contra was not high on the list in 1982, and the amount of money needed to fight Bruce Springsteen will not reduce the amount of TV ads Reagan, the RNC, and related have on the air.

in the first Debate he thought he was in Washington when he was in Kentucky.

Bush said in OTL that he was "kicking some ass" when he tied GF, so if he was losing well who knows what he'd say

i'll give you Iran-contra

hard to say i'm not sure the kind of money a suit like that would be, it'd still be bad PR
 
As I understand it Iran Contra came out in 1986. I am not sure when the actual criminal acts occured. If they happened before 2004 the scandal coming out would damage Reagan.

I guess if you throw in earlier Alzheimers and some kind of war scare (with the idea that the old guy might start a war by accident)

I also suspect that the dismissal of the air trafic controlers could have gone horribly wrong.

Taken together, who knows.

It is also worth saying that when Mondale pointed out that Reagan was spending money not being raised he was right.
 

burmafrd

Banned
Desperately scrambling. the first parts of Iran contra did not start untill early 85. It has been thought that the loss of several staff members from the first term is what opened the door for a lot of what happened then.

Reagan's so called confusion in the first debate was bad preparation- he was trying to memorize all sorts of numbers and that was a mistake. The rest he went back to how he did in 80 and he was fine.

Realistically outside of sickness or ASB there is no way Reagan does not smash who ever was the Dem candidate in 84.
 
I meant other Democrats- if Reagan looked beatable.

Really the only "major" Democrats not to run for the nomination in 1984, were, Ted Kennedy (who most believe considered 80 his last chance) and Sen Robert Byrd (WV) and Speaker O'Neil, and I doubt either was going to run and give up their power in Congress.

This is the host of candidates fro 1984...
Reubin O'D. Askew, former Governor of Florida
Alan M. Cranston, U.S. senator from California
John H. Glenn Jr., U.S. senator from Ohio
Gary W. Hart, U.S. senator from Colorado
Ernest F. "Fritz" Hollings, U.S. senator from South Carolina
Jesse L. Jackson
George S. McGovern, who had been defeated for reelection as SD SEN in 80, and
Walter F. Mondale,

As for DEM Governors, with national standing at the time, Chuck Robb (VA)hadn't completed his term, Cuomo (NY) was in his 1st. and California was in Rebublican hands (Pete Wilson), the CA Gov is always a canididate if good, and eligible.

So you have the Democrat first team running.

Now if you want a wild one, and are willing to have a near ASB POD, something making the situtation totally a disaster, economy gone to ... things in the mideast worst than 80, Soviet's apparent to still be on the march, then Jimmy Carter might reappear. In OTL, in 83-84 Carter made it known in the party that he didn't consider himself done, and thought he could beat Reagan (yea, I know, opinion among my party mentors and bosses in NC, was that Carter never accepted that he lost, and that he believed it was all the smoke and mirrors by Reagan). But he was seroius apparrently, and quickly and quietly told no.
 
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What about some canidate who gives such a good APPEARANCE of being on top that Reagan resigns? A combination of media support, a humiliation (the Kentucky-Washington thing), and perhaps a scandal? (ONE Republican Congressman OR Senator doing a scandal out of all them is perhaps plausible)

Alternately, could Reagan's doctors learn about the early warning signs of Alzheimers? And what would be the result?
 

burmafrd

Banned
Talk about scrambling for straws.
As someone who was around and an adult in 1984, I can first hand assure you that EVERYONE knew Reagan was going to pound who ever the Democrats put up against him.
The Alzheimer matter= you do realize that it was barely known at that time= and so using that just does not work.
His first term was very clean and had virtually no scandals=so that does not wash.
There were NO democrats that in any way shape or form really had the kind of charisma he had=not even close.
I would suggest you try and think of some other kind of scenario that basically does not need ASB to make it work.
 
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