Reagan in ‘76

Could Reagan have won the 1976 Presidential Election?

  • Yes

    Votes: 26 74.3%
  • No

    Votes: 9 25.7%

  • Total voters
    35

Bomster

Banned
IOTL, Ronald Reagan nearly won the Republican nomination in 1976 for President. Had he won the nomination, could the smooth-talking Gipper have won the 1976 election, and what would his presidency have looked like? Who would succeed him?
 
I think it's certainly possible he could've won. It was close enough between Carter and Ford, two of the most boring human beings to ever exist, I don't see why Reagan couldn't have gotten a bit luckier and flipped it. But with that said, he's likely to get completely eviscerated in 1980.
 
But with that said, he's likely to get completely eviscerated in 1980.

The economy can't be helped no matter who is in the White House but on the foreign policy stage Reagan might handle the Iran crisis differently than Carter which might spare America that feeling of humiliation in the run up to 1980.

I wonder if Reagan appoints Volcker as Fed chairman if he's president in 1979.
 
As in OTL, it would have been close, but IMO Carter would still have won. My reasons for believing this are:

(1) The GOP would still be bitterly divided--it would just be the other half of it that would be dissatisfied compared to OTL.

(2) Reagan's best states in the primaries were in the West and South. But while he would probably have done better in the popular vote in the West, he could not get any more electoral votes there than Ford did, for a simple reason--Ford swept the entire West in November (with the single exception of Hawaii, whose multiracial population would probably not be more favorable to Reagan than to Ford). Maybe Reagan defeats Carter in California by six points rather than Ford's two points. Maybe he carries Nevada by seven points instead of Ford's four points. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1976 But that means nothing in the Electoral College. Indeed, there is one western state that Ford very narrowly carried that Reagan might well have lost: Oregon. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Oregon,_1976 Note that Ford had defeated Reagan in the Oregon primary: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_1976 Also, Oregon was one of the few states where Eugene McCarthy's vote made the difference, and I can easily see some McCarthy voters who thought there was little difference between Carter and Ford, but might hesitate to cast a third-party vote if that would help a more conservative Republican than Ford...

(3) What about the South? First of all, remember that Reagan did not win all the southern primaries: Ford defeated him in FL, TN, and KY. Second, Carter, as the first major-party presidential candidate from the Deep South since before the ACW, generally won decisive, not narrow victories over Ford in the South. He lost VA and OK (and I assume he would have done so against Reagan as well) but the only southern states he carried by less than 5.78 points were MS and TX. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1976 Note that if Reagan carries both TX and MS but loses OR, he will still fall short of 270 electoral votes.

But might Reagan have carried some southern states Carter won decisively in OTL? I doubt that. One piece of evidence of Carter's appeal in the South against Reagan is that even in 1980 when Carter had of course become a very unpopular president, he came very close to beating Reagan in southern state after southern state: Reagan won TN, AR, AL, MS, KY, and SC by 1.53 percent or less, and NC by 2.12 points. He did win LA by 5.45 points but by then Carter's energy policies were very unpopular there. (And of course he won FL by a landslide but the Mariel boatlift crisis and the unpopularity of Carter's Middle East policy among Jewish voters doomed Carter in that state in 1980.) Indeed, it is ironic that although the South was Anderson's weakest section in 1980, it is the section where he might have cost Carter a few states...

(4) In the Northeast and Midwest, I cannot see Reagan carrying any state that Ford didn't win, and indeed he might have lost some major states that Ford won narrowly in OTL--Illinois (where Ford easily defeated Reagan in the primary) and NJ. And just maybe even MI--yes, Carter lost it by over five points in OTL, but after all it was Ford's home state.

So could Reagan have defeated Carter in 1976? Sure--in a close race, anything is possible. Would he have done so? I doubt it.
 
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Basically what @David T said. He could win, but I doubt he would. Plus, I think Carter would've campaigned differently against Reagan than he did Ford.
 
Basically what @David T said. He could win, but I doubt he would.

Plus, I think Carter would've campaigned differently against Reagan than he did Ford.

Agreed. It is plausible Reagan wins, it is likely Carter does.

Carter dismissed Reagan as a threat and thought of him as a lightweight Goldwater sequel (people far too often underestimated Reagan). Odds are Carter gets murdered in the debate because of massive overconfidence. So while Carter would campaign differently I suspect it would be worse—balanced by Reagan’s campaign being nowhere near the brilliant Ford forces of OTL.
 
Agreed. It is plausible Reagan wins, it is likely Carter does.

Carter dismissed Reagan as a threat and thought of him as a lightweight Goldwater sequel (people far too often underestimated Reagan). Odds are Carter gets murdered in the debate because of massive overconfidence. So while Carter would campaign differently I suspect it would be worse—balanced by Reagan’s campaign being nowhere near the brilliant Ford forces of OTL.
Reagan would also have the outsider thing going for him like Carter did. However, he would also emerge from a narrow, bitter primary like Ford did OTL and would still be the face of a damaged Republican party.
 
- The Department of Education wouldn't have been created unless there were enough Democrats to override Reagan's veto.

- I wonder if Reagan would have legalized craft beer.
 
I could still see the argument being made that he was too fringe to win, even if he’d only lost narrowly,
One thing that Reagan had over Ford was a record as governor of California. Honestly I'm not near a source and I'm on my phone so I'm not sure if that would be for or against him. The middle class was switching to the right they were tired of corruption, not that it's any different on either party and inflation and taxes. A lot of unions were supporting Republicans if they have offered change. What if somebody like Wallace rain again the fact is when he did run he did some decent numbers for an independent and those votes are not going to go to Jimmy Carter.
 
So could Reagan have defeated Carter in 1976? Sure--in a close race, anything is possible. Would he have done so? I doubt it.

Awesome, thorough analysis as always David T. As far as I'm concerned, there's nothing substantial to add here beyond the fact that in 1976 the US hadn't moved as far to the right as it was in 1980. (1978 CA tax referendum is still two years away, ERA hasn't yet failed to ratify). Reagan's neoconservatism at first put him behind Carter in 1980 before he caught up to the President in October (thanks in part to the boost provided by the debates). Due to the perception that Reagan is a right wing extremist, he would be even less popular going in to the 1976 election than he was in 1980. And he won't be able to contrast himself with a failed Democratic President either. So a Carter v. Reagan match four years early is definitely Carter's to lose.
 
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