Reagan Elected in 1972

The POD is that Nixon dies in office in early 1972. Agnew is considered too vunerable, so he draws primary opponents including Reagan. The Dems still nominate McGovern, so Reagan wins in a landslide.

I see harder line in Vietnam and against the Soviets, attempts to cut the domestic budget ad mabe taxes (though supply side economics that Reagan favored was still in the future), and a more well funded space program.

Next?
 
How can you assume that Reagan would win a landslide over McGovern? It's 1972, not 1980. His politics are those of Barry Goldwater, so I doubt he himself would even get elected, barring something big. I think most likely you have Agnew stick on. He may be vulnerable, but the right-wing of the party isn't as powerful in 1972 as it is eight years down the road.
 
You should think a little harder about McGovern still losing against Reagan, I don't know if it'd be as clear-cut as that.
 
So under what circumstances can you imagine that McGovern could actually have won? Non ASB that is.

Keeping Nixon, its easy. His campaign in Vietnam goes much worse, body bags pile up on the homefront, and the economy stalls worse than it did in OTL. McGovern rides a wave of anti-incumbency to the White House.

Without Nixon and with Agnew, I'd say Agnew gets a good share of 'sympathy votes' for Nixon. He probably beats McGovern if things stay stable as they were OTL, but if he fucks the handling of the economy and Vietnam up, McGovern may be a shoo-in.

With Reagan, McGovern could harken back to the Goldwater-Johnson election of only eight years prior. If he can make sure he doesn't fumble with the VP pick and remains credible to the voters (OTL, that's why his numbers plummeted so far...the public didn't think much of McGovern, the man who couldn't pick the right VP the first time around...) and grab the political 'center' (which, in 1972, is quite to the left) and paint Reagan as a Goldwaterite, a reactionairy who wants to gut Social Security and Medicare and kill more American boys in Vietnam, he may have a fair shot at taking the White House himself.
 
Not quite true the Political Center of the United States was not as far to the left as was the Democrat Party. It was one of the reasons that Nixon was easily able to rally the country to him. With Vietnamization well underway the US was withdrawing from the country. Ronald Reagan was a far better communicator than George McGovern and as the twice elected governor of one of the biggest states in the Union he was in a better position to win.
 
actually.... reagan runs against president agnew, definitely (as he did in 76), and IF he gets the nomination, and that's a big IF, he's just cocky enough to play it straight. he gets a moderate/liberal senator or congressman from a big eastern/northern state as his running mate (ford? hugh scott? charles percy?)

but i don't think mcgovern gets nominated in 1972 if he's not running against nixon. there's no CREEP. there's no canuck letter. muskie doesn't get knocked out for 'having snow on his face'. they've got to move to the left of reagan internationally, but they have no reason to move so far left (remember, nixon was essentially a moderate-centrist on foreign policy). they're not going to go with super-hawk scoop jackson (roughly equivalent to reagan), but considering reagan is law-and-order governor of the state the counter culture started in (and hated because of it by the left already in a way that nixon isn't, although don't get me wrong, they hated him too)... i think they have to go center-left. they go with muskie.

muskie probably does best with a younger liberal from a midwestern or plains state. he picks mcgovern, who put up a hell of a primary fight. other possibilities: mondale, fulbright, or birch bayh.

in the end, it's a tough call, but i think reagan loses in a close race to muskie. the toss-ups are public opinion of nixon and how much sentimentalism sets in after his death. (of course, you could have it be just a bit more realistic and have nixon resign during his first term - which would insure muskie's win).
 
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