Reagan doesn't run for reelection

Let's say that Reagan decides not to run for reelection in 1984 for health reasons (perhaps a more severe injury in the assassination attempt or a severe cancer development or something else) or for some other non-controversial reason (so his popularity in 1984 is the same). I assume that George Bush I would win the Republican nomination easily with Reagan's support, and would probably beat whoever the Democrats sent against him (though probably not by the same margin that Reagan trounced Mondale). How would a 1985-1989 Bush term go, and would he win reelection?
 
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