70 days into his presidency, Ronald Reagan was shot and almost killed when exiting the Hilton Hotel, on March 30 1981.
The bullet, which ricocheted against the bullet proof limo, entered through his left armpit, went through his left lung, and stopped an inch from his heart.
Had it gone just that bit further, President Reagan would have died. Instantly.
What would be the result of this?
Obviously, George H. W Bush would have become the 41st President that afternoon, and America would be burying another U.S president less than 20 years after JFK was assassinated.
But what would have been the longer term ramifications of a Reagan death and a Bush Presidency?
The two major changes of the 1980s were Reaganomics, and the ending of the Cold War.
Reaganomics, that is the massive tax cuts of 1981 and 1986 gave the economy the turnaround which saw the end of Carter's recession and the beginning of the biggest economic boom in America's history.
Inflation and interest rates cut in half. 19 million new jobs. Real family income up. The Poverty Rate down. And more revenue for government.
But Bush had labelled it "voodoo economics" during the campaign, and he warned that it would make inflation worse; he was no fan of Reagan's ideas.
It seems that if Reagan had died that day, so too would have his tax cuts. Meaning that the recession which continued to worsen into 1982, may not have turned around in 1983.
Could that have meant that Walter Mondale would have been elected President in 1984?
Also, Reagan's Soviet policy would have died that day also.
The defense buildup was important, and that may have continued under Bush, but what would not have occurred was Reagan's 1983 STAR WARS, Strategic Defense Initiative program, which ultimately was the most important policy of the Reagan years, as it drove the Soviets back to the negotiating table, resulting in the INF and START Treaties, which effectively ended the Cold War.
Would a Bush presidency, without SDI, been able to achieve those diplomatic breakthroughs? And if not, would the USSR still be standing to this day?
The bullet, which ricocheted against the bullet proof limo, entered through his left armpit, went through his left lung, and stopped an inch from his heart.
Had it gone just that bit further, President Reagan would have died. Instantly.
What would be the result of this?
Obviously, George H. W Bush would have become the 41st President that afternoon, and America would be burying another U.S president less than 20 years after JFK was assassinated.
But what would have been the longer term ramifications of a Reagan death and a Bush Presidency?
The two major changes of the 1980s were Reaganomics, and the ending of the Cold War.
Reaganomics, that is the massive tax cuts of 1981 and 1986 gave the economy the turnaround which saw the end of Carter's recession and the beginning of the biggest economic boom in America's history.
Inflation and interest rates cut in half. 19 million new jobs. Real family income up. The Poverty Rate down. And more revenue for government.
But Bush had labelled it "voodoo economics" during the campaign, and he warned that it would make inflation worse; he was no fan of Reagan's ideas.
It seems that if Reagan had died that day, so too would have his tax cuts. Meaning that the recession which continued to worsen into 1982, may not have turned around in 1983.
Could that have meant that Walter Mondale would have been elected President in 1984?
Also, Reagan's Soviet policy would have died that day also.
The defense buildup was important, and that may have continued under Bush, but what would not have occurred was Reagan's 1983 STAR WARS, Strategic Defense Initiative program, which ultimately was the most important policy of the Reagan years, as it drove the Soviets back to the negotiating table, resulting in the INF and START Treaties, which effectively ended the Cold War.
Would a Bush presidency, without SDI, been able to achieve those diplomatic breakthroughs? And if not, would the USSR still be standing to this day?