reagan dies in 1978: who does the gop nominate in 1980

RousseauX

Donor
Reagan was clearly the GOP heir apparant after 1976. Lets say he gets a heart attack and dies un 78, who wins the 80 primaries?
 
It's the wholly predictable answer, but probably Bush. He had a really solid campaign, particularly in Iowa, when set against the competition - it was still the early days of the primary/caucus system and strong campaigns weren't a given. (Baker, rather than Bush, had more establishment support; Bush wasn't gifted the runner-up status by the establishment as people usually assume)

There's not really the time for anyone with Reagan's stature to emerge on the right; the vote there is going to be fragmented between a lot of B and C-grade candidates like Crane and Connolly.
 

DougM

Donor
I am neither a political insider more an expert on the Republican Party in the lat 70s. But I happen to live in the area the conversation was held in and it was the first election I was old enough to follow (but not old enough to vote in). And I remember following the news out of that convention in part from personal interest and in part because my parents did.
And at least the way it was reported locally and the national news did not disagree. The battle was in many ways between Reagan and Bush. And I clearly remember when the new announced that Bush was going to be VP. Before the official announcement was actually made.
So I would think that the odds on favorite if Reagan is not around is Bush.

I would also guess that Bush probably does good enough of a job in his first four years that he gets back in in 84. Maybe not with Reagons level of die hard fans but I think if given an even reasonable level of competence the economy will be good enough that he gets back in. So the hard one to predict is who is on the ballot the first time I am eligible to for in 88?
 
Not sure about Bush being any sort of shoe-in. A two-term Rep., UN Ambassador for the disgraced POTUS, and former CIA Director and RNC Chair is quite a resume but hardly any of these positions are elected or are ever springboards to the presidency.

IMO, Bush would seem strong in the early primaries and then burn out.

I think the race would come down to John Connally and Howard Baker, with Gerald Ford being seen as a distinct possibility throughout.

Baker would be the centrist establishment pick and Connally would be an insurgent conservative who would be less overwhelmingly popular with the party compared to Reagan due to being a former Democratic Governor and his very close ties to Nixon (closer than Bush). The difference between Bush failing and Connally potentially succeeding is there was a better alternative to Bush in terms of centrists liked by the establishment (Baker) and tbe PoD for this is the better conservative alternative to Connally (Reagan) is dead.

Ford jumping in the race would really shake things up, and he just might. If he does, I’d expect his VP pick to be the 1984 heir apparent and my personal favorite for that role is Larry Pressler, giving us a centrist, ideologically consistent GOP President alive and active to this day.

Larry Pressler presiding over those good times would make him quite a voice and I have a feeling he’d seek public office again unless he has a downright tragic (two) term(s).
 
If Ford runs, Bush and Dole probably sit it out for the sake of loyalty and Baker likely does for the sake for there not being much ideological difference. It'd basically be him vs. Connally, Phil Crane, and maybe Jack Kemp if he thinks he has a chance without Reagan. If Ford doesn't run, Reagan's staunchest supporters probably split between Dole, Connally, and Crane, while Bush or Baker rap up the rest of the party and win the nomination.
 
I think that it will come to a Bush v. Baker situation. Slippery When Wet, if you can find it, was a great example of this scenario.
 
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