Reagan’s reputation on economic issues if no assassination attempt?

Thank you for taking a strong view and putting it out there. But, what about:

1) Carter getting the ball rolling on deregulation such as airlines, trucking, and telecom, and

2) Energy policy, even though ol’ Jimmy didn’t achieve his wildest dreams, he did make some progress.

Maybe if he sped it up. As it was it was too little too late. Lifting the price controls on gas and oil in 1977 would have done wonders by 1980.
 

GeographyDude

Gone Fishin'
Maybe if he sped it up. As it was it was too little too late. Lifting the price controls on gas and oil in 1977 would have done wonders by 1980.
The idea of a one-two punch of lifting price controls + a windfall profits tax was put forward at least as early as Pres. Ford’s Jan. 1975 State of the Union address.

Maybe if Congress has acted earlier. But not only did we have an inexperienced president, in Jan. ‘77, we also had a first-time Speaker of the House in Thomas “Tip” O’Neill.
 
The idea of a one-two punch of lifting price controls + a windfall profits tax was put forward at least as early as Pres. Ford’s Jan. 1975 State of the Union address.

Maybe if Congress has acted earlier. But not only did we have an inexperienced president, in Jan. ‘77, we also had a first-time Speaker of the House in Thomas “Tip” O’Neill.
What's the point of lifting price controls if you have a windfall profits tax? You want profits to go up when a commodity is scarce so that more money is invested in obtaining them.
 

GeographyDude

Gone Fishin'
Nancy-Ronald-Reagan_CNNPH.png


Yeah, he’s a pretty likeable guy.

It’s hard enough to criticize his policies, constructively or otherwise, to begin with. And then the guy basically gets elevated to the status of hero-slash-saint.
 
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GeographyDude

Gone Fishin'
What's the point of lifting price controls if you have a windfall profits tax? You want profits to go up when a commodity is scarce so that more money is invested in obtaining them.
All depends on how much the tax, right?

And at the end of the day, Congress is pro-business although sometimes they’re clumsy about it. I think you may have previously talked about barriers to entry?

And I tend to agree. If it’s expensive leases on federal land just for exploratory drilling, that’s only a medium deal for the big guy but a pretty big deal to the little guy. And same for environmental impact statements which involve expensive legal fees.

But if it’s taxes after the fact. Let’s say it’s even a 45% windfall tax which is quite a bit higher than normal corporate taxes, well, you only pay it if you make the money. Yeah, I think I’d rather make the money and pay the tax.

And if we make a threshold — such as all profit about $50 million, for example — that would benefit the mid-sized producer, pretty much at the expense of the big dog.
 
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marathag

Banned
Next issue, I’d like to see how much of Reagan’s deficits came from continuing and in fact expanding on Carter’s military build up, and how much of it came from tax cuts
RR had to say 'yes' for every other spending item that Tip O'Neil wanted to get the Military, tax reform and deregulation he wanted,thru the House
 
All depends on how much the tax, right?

And at the end of the day, Congress is pro-business although sometimes they’re clumsy about it. I think you may have previously talked about barriers to entry?

And I tend to agree. If it’s expensive leases on federal land just for exploratory drilling, that’s only a medium deal for the big guy but a pretty big deal to the little guy. And same for environmental impact statements which involve expensive legal fees.

But if it’s taxes after the fact. Let’s say it’s even a 45% windfall tax which is quite a bit higher than normal corporate taxes, well, you only pay it if you make the money. Yeah, I think I’d rather make the money and pay the tax.

And if we make a threshold — such as all profit about $50 million, for example — that would benefit the mid-sized producer, pretty much at the expense of the big dog.
The problem is that it reduces incentives. Yeah, you only pay the tax if you make a profit, but that doesn't make up for all the dry holes you might have drilled. This discourages more "risky" drilling. Let them keep the profit. I don't give a damn how much the oil companies make on it. Once enough of them are pumping oil, the price will go down again.
 

GeographyDude

Gone Fishin'
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GeographyDude

Gone Fishin'
. . . Let them keep the profit. I don't give a damn how much the oil companies make on it. Once enough of them are pumping oil, the price will go down again.
Not if it’s an oligopoly situation. And it needn’t even be active collusion. It can just be an unstated understanding on the part of the major producers, don’t rock the boat. And, I won’t rock the boat if you don’t.

Now, as far as my approach . . . it’s kind of like you’re a Republican Senator and I’m a centrist Democrat . . .

Are you sure I can’t talk you into even a pretty high threshold before windfall profits tax kicks in?
 

GeographyDude

Gone Fishin'
RR had to say 'yes' for every other spending item that Tip O'Neil wanted to get the Military, tax reform and deregulation he wanted,thru the House
I think the Reagan administration had a pretty good working coalition with the southern Democrats, also known as “Dixiecrats.”
 
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raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
All through the cold war, we propped up and supported a shit ton of terrible dictators. Pretty everyone except the avowed communists.

Oh, even avowed Communists too - the PRC, the Khmer Rouge. I was disappointed Deng Xiaoping didn't make it onto my late 1980s edition of "Friendly Dictators Trading Cards" by Marvel (New Mutants) and Eclipse Comics artist Bill Sienkiewicz. Of course if you stretch out American history over a longer period you could add Joseph Stalin to the list.

Dictators: 36 Of Americas Most Embarrassing Allies/Trading Cards Paperback – June 1, 1991​

 
Not if it’s an oligopoly situation. And it needn’t even be active collusion. It can just be an unstated understanding on the part of the major producers, don’t rock the boat. And, I won’t rock the boat if you don’t.

Now, as far as my approach . . . it’s kind of like you’re a Republican Senator and I’m a centrist Democrat . . .

Are you sure I can’t talk you into even a pretty high threshold before windfall profits tax kicks in?

Even in an oligopoly. You don't make the most money by charging the highest price, even in an oligopoly. You make it at the price you make the most profit which is a lower price if more people buy it. If the price is very high people are less likely to go on vacations or go to a park far from home. They are more likely to buy a smaller car etc.
 

GeographyDude

Gone Fishin'
Oh, even avowed Communists too - the PRC, the Khmer Rouge. . .
We supported the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia post-genocide, and I want to be clear about that.

Vietnam invaded Cambodia on Christmas Day 1978 and over ran the country in a few short weeks, and stopped the genocide. In fact, this is probably the second best example of straight-up military action stopping genocide in the 20th century, second only to the Allies defeating the Nazis in WWII.

And sometime thereafter, we began funneling weapons through Thailand to Khmer Rouge remnants. It looks like the main reason was to deny a clear victory to the Vietnamese.
 
Reagan might not have gotten the support for tax cuts that he needed w/o the assassination attempt (at least not in the first term). Reagan may need to compromise more with Democrats on economic issues. But the economy still recovers and Reagan is still re-elected in 1984.
 

GeographyDude

Gone Fishin'
On foreign policy, we need to find positive examples in spite of everything.

For example, George W. Bush in favor of significant health money to Africa, Clinton putting his weight behind a peace deal in Ireland. Imperfect as these may be, and after the cold war.

So, positive examples even if not typical. Or else you get written off as knee jerk anti-American and that’s no way to convince people that things didn’t need to be that way.
 
We supported the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia post-genocide, and I want to be clear about that.

Vietnam invaded Cambodia on Christmas Day 1978 and over ran the country in a few short weeks, and stopped the genocide. In fact, this is probably the second best example of straight-up military action stopping genocide in the 20th century, second only to the Allies defeating the Nazis in WWII.

And sometime thereafter, we began funneling weapons through Thailand to Khmer Rouge remnants. It looks like the main reason was to deny a clear victory to the Vietnamese.
Wait, the Khmer Rouge were Communist, right? If we were so anti-Communist back then, why the f**k would we have supported the Khmer Rouge, especially after they had committed one of the worst atrocities of the century (or any century, really).
 

marathag

Banned
Wait, the Khmer Rouge were Communist, right? If we were so anti-Communist back then, why the f**k would we have supported the Khmer Rouge, especially after they had committed one of the worst atrocities of the century (or any century, really).
realpolitik
 
Wait, the Khmer Rouge were Communist, right? If we were so anti-Communist back then, why the f**k would we have supported the Khmer Rouge, especially after they had committed one of the worst atrocities of the century (or any century, really).
The Khmer Rouge were (nominally, they were too crazy to be really constructively useful) part of the Chinese sphere of influence. Pol Pot described himself as a radical maoist and thought he was doing a better, purer cultural revolution. Vietnam, while communist, was in the Soviet sphere and also embarrassed the USA a few years prior. As a result the Kissingerian realpolitik response is to condemn the Vietnamese intervention (which came out of the Khmer Rouge fighting a years long undeclared border war/genocide campaign against all Viet people) to get brownie points with China and simultaneously get revenge on Vietnam.
 
2020-04-30-National-Debt-to-GDP-zFacts.jpg

National Debt as % of GDP

This is kind of “the book” on Reagan — that he talked about balanced budgets during the campaign, but instead ran deficits. And that criticism is generally true.


Next issue, I’d like to see how much of Reagan’s deficits came from continuing and in fact expanding on Carter’s military build up, and how much of it came from tax cuts.
Neither were the main cause of the deficit increase (although both obviously contributed). The main cause was the quick ending of inflation. in 1980-1981, most economists expected it to take at least 10 years to stamp out inflation. It took 2. The result of this was that budgets in Reagan's first term were made expecting much larger increases in revenue due to inflation that simply didn't happen. The tax cuts were a part of the deficit, as was military spending, but they were minor contributors compared to the inability to accurately predict inflation figures.
 
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