Reading the Room - an Alternate War of 1812 and beyond

[piratedude]

Like, maybe, not invading Russia? Or at the very least not trying to take Moscow in one year?

i suppose that if he had pulled back after Smolensk he could have salvaged most of his men, though his army still would have suffered quite a toll from the summer heat and diseases in addition to the bloody battles, and he was losing horses extremely quickly. It also would have made sense to pull back at that time because he'd already gone a lot further into Russia than he'd planed (having not anticipated the Russians to give ground so readily).

after that battle he only narrowly missed out on catching the commanding General Barclay because Davout didn't feel like pursuing right after crossing the Dnipro. in the short term catching him would be a win, probably enough for him to finally force Russia to the negotiating table. but the Russians were at the point were they were tired of getting pushed around so they wouldn't be honest negotiators. Napoleon was also just absolutely terrible at making peace treaties by this point, probably incenses Russia further by expanding the Duchy of Warsaw to punish them for resisting, before pulling back. then next spring he'll be facing down a surprise Russian offensive.

thats how i see that playing out at least

 

[Seawolf]

i suppose that if he had pulled back after Smolensk he could have salvaged most of his men, though his army still would have suffered quite a toll from the summer heat and diseases in addition to the bloody battles, and he was losing horses extremely quickly. It also would have made sense to pull back at that time because he'd already gone a lot further into Russia than he'd planed (having not anticipated the Russians to give ground so readily).

That's what I am thinking he does as well....I reckon that if the Invasion of Russia drags out into 1813 and quite possibly 1814, Napoleon might be willing to make concessions during the Vienna Congress to preserve his empire as he would recognize that his Cavalry forces would be completely spent leaving him horrifically vulnerable to Cavalry.

Of course, to my knowledge, the French also never developed Spherical Case Shot during the Napoleonic Wars - or if they did, they developed it late. A fun butterfly could see some being captured during the early stages of the Peninsular War and then reverse-engineered and unleashed upon the Russians....and Napoleon always did love his artillery...so something to improve said artillery would always be nice....

 

[piratedude]

That's what I am thinking he does as well....I reckon that if the Invasion of Russia drags out into 1813 and quite possibly 1814, Napoleon might be willing to make concessions during the Vienna Congress to preserve his empire as he would recognize that his Cavalry forces would be completely spent leaving him horrifically vulnerable to Cavalry.

Hm. Its hard to imagine the coalition not trying to force him to agree to the Frankfurt proposals; allowing him to stay on the throne and keep France's "natural borders", and abandoning his hold on Germany, Italy, and Spain.

Russia can't stand the continued existence of a Polish state, Austria can't stand French domination of Italy, and neither Austria nor Prussia would put up with his control of the confederation ofbthe Rhine. Spain of course objects to being occupied and ruled by Joseph.

Otl Napoleon believed he still had the military might to force his own peace, and that was with an army loaded of conscripts greener than grass. How much stronger would he believe that with at least a solid chunk of his veterans still left?

...Maybe if Leipzig turns as bloody as Borodino was for him with an indecisive outcome, he would be forced to agree, and stick to, the peace treaty

 

[Seawolf]

Hm. Its hard to imagine the coalition not trying to force him to agree to the Frankfurt proposals; allowing him to stay on the throne and keep France's "natural borders", and abandoning his hold on Germany, Italy, and Spain.

I could see Napoleon coming to a sort of halfway house if he recognized that France was spent.

This halfway house would be letting Spain go entirely, giving Prussia access to the North Sea (say around the mouth of the Weser River) so that's part of the Confederation of the Rhine gone, and giving up say the Kingdom of Naples but keeping Tuscany.

This solves most of the problems that Napoleon faces: Spain is granted Independence from France entirely, French domination of Italy is effectively gone, and most of the Confederation of the Rhine is gone. The Duchy of Warsaw is still a thing though but the geopolitical situation from these changes would butterfly the 100 Days War more than likely, which means no Waterloo and thus the French Empire survives as Austria and Prussia would likely accept a much reduced Confederation (say everything on the east side of the Weser River plus Oldenburg - this still gives a quite substantial Confederation of the Rhine, but, also gives up a very large chunk of the Confederation of the Rhine to become Independent. However, this likely results in the German Unification movement being centered on Prussia, Austria, plus the various newly independent Kingdoms and Duchies.

 

[piratedude]

Most likely? They might go to one of the major naval arsenals in France and frankly, seeing multiple 3-deckers, most of the British blockading squadrons would likely be wary about engaging them. They probably won't go to the West Indies, because if they do, then the French will have properly secured naval dominance in the Caribbean. Its more than just a trio of 3-Deckers, Rosily has six other French-built ships of the line - mostly 74-gunners with a pair of 80-gunners. But Rosily getting to France would likely mean bad things for the British.

If Rosily goes to France, he will probably sail for Brest....his force should just about, have the capability to fight its way past the blockade, the only wrinkle I can think of is the brand new 120-gun first-rate HMS Caledonia.

back to this for a second, these SotL have been stuck in Cadiz since Trafalgar...so how well maintained have they been? Have either the French or the Spanish crews become lax over the years of inaction? I wouldn't be surprised if during the break out one of these ships falls out of formation, either due to poor seamanship or because they hadn't been cleaning the hull frequently enough, and gets picked apart like a wolfpack running down an old moose

 

[Seawolf]

back to this for a second, these SotL have been stuck in Cadiz since Trafalgar...so how well maintained have they been? Have either the French or the Spanish crews become lax over the years of inaction? I wouldn't be surprised if during the break out one of these ships falls out of formation, either due to poor seamanship or because they hadn't been cleaning the hull frequently enough, and gets picked apart like a wolfpack running down an old moose

Well one of them was under repair at the Arsenal due to Trafalgar, her hull at minimum is completely clean.

But given that Cadiz had an arsenal capable of handling ships of the line and first rates at that, I wouldn't be surprised if they are in tiptop shape. The crews themselves though are likely rusty.

 

[Seawolf]

May 20, 1808 - France​

Lafayette slowly climbed aboard a British Frigate with his son coming up behind him. After conferring with the Captain, the frigate signaled the flagship and then after receiving permission, departed for London carrying a most unexpected cargo. The British captain could hardly believe his ears that Lafayette wanted to head to the United States of America. But on the other hand, it was a general who very much could have been on the A-Team for Napoleon no longer in France.

 

[Belisarius II]

Most likely? They might go to one of the major naval arsenals in France and frankly, seeing multiple 3-deckers, most of the British blockading squadrons would likely be wary about engaging them. They probably won't go to the West Indies, because if they do, then the French will have properly secured naval dominance in the Caribbean. Its more than just a trio of 3-Deckers, Rosily has six other French-built ships of the line - mostly 74-gunners with a pair of 80-gunners. But Rosily getting to France would likely mean bad things for the British.

If Rosily goes to France, he will probably sail for Brest....his force should just about, have the capability to fight its way past the blockade, the only wrinkle I can think of is the brand new 120-gun first-rate HMS Caledonia.



I have posted some information regarding the armament of the American ships of the line...look at this threadmark for more info.

If Adm Collingwood sees 9 powerful ships in Cadiz that might made a breakout he'd send a dispatch ship back to England informing the Admiralty and ask for reinforcements. The Admiralty would probably send a half dozen 74s to him, and an equal number to the Breast Squadron from the Channel Fleet. In 1808 the RN had almost 100 ships of the line in commission. They did have reserves to call on.

 

[Seawolf]

The Admiralty would probably send a half dozen 74s to him, and an equal number to the Breast Squadron from the Channel Fleet. In 1808 the RN had almost 100 ships of the line in commission. They did have reserves to call on.

Or they might send him HMS Caledonia plus a few 74s, which frankly....could probably ROFLstomp anything in service right now.

 

[HyperMuscularDemon]

Great timeline! I am interested to see how it goes.

 

[Seawolf]

Great timeline! I am interested to see how it goes.

Thank you! I must admit, I have been having a lot of fun with this.

 

[Mayukh]

Thank you! I must admit, I have been having a lot of fun with this.

Will we see any changes in Land Warfare?

 

[Seawolf]

Will we see any changes in Land Warfare?

How do you mean? If you mean in tactics, no, not really. That really didn't have the impetus to change wasn't really provided until the 1850s-1860s due to rifles becoming commonplace and the lethality of such weapons increasing dramatically.

 

[Mayukh]

How do you mean?

Any Change in Events, Battles etc.
Results...(US annexing Canada, Tecumseh surviving)
Assuming its still US vs Canada and UK qnd Not US enters Napoleonic Wars tl.

 

[Seawolf]

Any Change in Events, Battles etc.

Well, Britain has successfully read the room regarding the United States and France could care less frankly.

Thus the upcoming war won't be against the British, but the United States doesn't have the force projection to fight in Europe.

 

[piratedude]

One thing that the rapprochement with Britain will alter, hopefully for the better, is Indian relations.
Or at least, relations with the Natives of the Southeast (often grouped together by Americans as the "civilized tribes") should be better without British encouragement to fight, i expect only the Seminole would ally with the Spanish due to their familiarity (and the spanish loyalists lacking the resources to encourage the otl red stick faction of Muscogee/"Creek" to help them) while the other four either join the US or remain neutral.

Relations with Tecumseh and his Confederacy in the northwest territories though...well it'll be a bit tense once the Americans takes notice of what he's doing

 

[Seawolf]

One thing that the rapprochement with Britain will alter, hopefully for the better, is Indian relations.

That's basically a certainty to be pretty honest - at least in the South. With Tecumseh and his confederation, it depends on if William Henry Harrison makes a call that frankly SecState should have during that whole affair, which was rejecting Tecumseh's notion that all of the Native American Tribes were one nation.

i expect only the Seminole would ally with the Spanish due to their familiarity (and the spanish loyalists lacking the resources to encourage the otl red stick faction of Muscogee/"Creek" to help them) while the other four either join the US or remain neutral.

I don't think that the Seminole Indians were exactly the biggest fans of the Spanish tbh....

 

[piratedude]

I don't think that the Seminole Indians were exactly the biggest fans of the Spanish tbh....

They weren't, but the run away slaves that joined them are even less keen on returning to the not so tender mercies of American planters

 

[Seawolf]

They weren't, but the run away slaves that joined them are even less keen on returning to the not so tender mercies of American planters

I can see Andrew Jackson likely trying to figure out a way to reward the Native Americans that help them - one idea that sounds awesome but is extremely unlikely is Florida being made a protectorate with the Native Americans in charge and say by 1830, they can hold a Constitutional Convention and get inducted into the United States. But given the timeframe that seems....unlikely.

 

[piratedude]

Well, it would help if he up held the courts decision to recognize Indian nations' sovereignty, though i expect he would only do so for those nations that create formal constitutions like the Cherokee did. So any that don't are likely to still get the shaft, unfortunately.