RAND's nuclear wars

[ArmchairImperialist]

How Nuclear War Might Start: Scenarios from the Early 21st Century

To encourage breadth in the formulation of games for official purposes, RAND responded to a request from the Director of Net Assessment to create a number of scenarios for the early 21st century in which conflict would occur or be likely and ...

www.rand.org

Not sure where to post this, but here goes.
Just rediscovered this sitting on my hard drive. Back in the eighties RAND wrote up a report envisioning multiple scenarios featuring nuclear wars in the early 2000s.
I think there might be some interesting Alt-Cold war scenario fodder in there. What do you guys think?

 

[Coiler]

On a similar note, their 1990s Wars That Never Were report is interesting, ranging from the semi-plausible to the ridiculous (a joint-Syrian/Iraqi invasion of Turkey, written after the Gulf War and fall of the USSR).

 

[traveller76]

How Nuclear War Might Start: Scenarios from the Early 21st Century

To encourage breadth in the formulation of games for official purposes, RAND responded to a request from the Director of Net Assessment to create a number of scenarios for the early 21st century in which conflict would occur or be likely and ...

www.rand.org

Not sure where to post this, but here goes.
Just rediscovered this sitting on my hard drive. Back in the eighties RAND wrote up a report envisioning multiple scenarios featuring nuclear wars in the early 2000s.
I think there might be some interesting Alt-Cold war scenario fodder in there. What do you guys think?

Interesting read but I have some thoughts.

1. I think they bet too much on SDI and missile defense systems for ICBMS working 100% of the time.
2. China and Japan working together, not going to happen, ever.
3. Mexico going Communist or aligning with the Soviets. We would not wait for that, we would intervene the moment that happened.
4. Most of the scenarios sound like something from Twilight 2000 RPG.

 

[ArmchairImperialist]

Interesting read but I have some thoughts.

1. I think they bet too much on SDI and missile defense systems for ICBMS working 100% of the time.
2. China and Japan working together, not going to happen, ever.
3. Mexico going Communist or aligning with the Soviets. We would not wait for that, we would intervene the moment that happened.
4. Most of the scenarios sound like something from Twilight 2000 RPG.

I agree with you that some these scenarios might not be too plausible but:
1: The report also has moon bases and oil eating bacteria, so SDI and working ABM might not be the most unrealistic gadget in there, if you keep in mind that they wrote this in the eighties
2: The Sino-Japanese alliance in the scenario never really develops beyond a commercial one, and aren't the Chinese and Japanese huge trading partners OTL? And while they certainly aren't going to become the best of friends anytime soon, I think Japan might allow China to strike a blow against a mutual enemy while making some money at the same time.
3: I think Mexico's large size and population might discourage an invasion from an US administration that is described as uninterested foreign interventions anyway. Also, Cuba, a nation that seems way easier too occupy and cut off from Soviet support went communist OTL, so Mexico seems possible.
4: Yes.

 

[Coiler]

There's also this, an analysis of a war with a unified Germany and no Warsaw Pact but a surviving USSR. Interesting to see the defense diagrams change.